Churchill and rain

Tomorrow, I'll handicap again, for the Oaks and Derby. I'm not sure I'll give Derby picks, because the Derby is a personal thing for most people. It's where the MacDonalds worker picks ARCHARCHARCH. It's where the dog lover picks MASTER OF HOUNDS. It's where the fireman and clothing store worker pick PANTS ON FIRE.

First of all, the magical dosage system. It works. Is it coincidence? Probably not. And it's speculation why it works, nothing more. Almost all of this year's runners have dosages either under 4, or very close. And a look at their pedigree makes one think they're all the same balanced runner. Most of them have Nearctic, most of them have a lot of stamina in the background, with an inkling of six furlong speedsters like Mr. Prospector, just enough for balance.

In fact, those who have some of the best pedigree didn't make the cut, or didn't perform well enough at 1 1/8 mile. There's little doubt that those who raced in Arkansas would not have held off J W Blue at 1 1/4 mile, and J W isn't even close to being considered Derby class.

I'll talk about Churchill's hard surface during the rain.

Usually, when it is dry, the track is rock hard. Rain can make a track sloppy, muddy, or good.

Sloppy tracks are impossible to handicap. They are still fast, and not deep. There is little give. You see even faster times on the traditional sloppy track. Hurt horses run well on it, but they probably hurt themselves even worse. Good jockeys are most important on sloppy track, because on the slop, where a horse breaks out of the gate is where he winds up, or close to it, unless it is a very long race, and the Derby is a very long race.

Muddy tracks see very true to form efforts, if it is truly muddy. This makes the track deep, and it's hard for a good jockey to just steal the race. He has to have lots of horse.

Kentucky is getting a lot of rain. It stopped on Wednesday, but there is still dampness in the air. I would look for the track to be deep and muddy on Thursday, but it's just a guess. Muddy tracks are true to form, and horses who pass up horses can do very well. Friday, if it doesn't rain, the track may be a little faster, maybe a "good" track. There is a probability of more rain before Saturday, though. I look for a muddy track.

This bodes well for the classic distance horse, and negates the efforts Churchill goes through to make the track criminally hard. Barbaro and Eight Belles are just the famous casualties. And yes, Barbaro went down at Pimlico, after a few steps. Hello? Of course this means it wasn't the Pimlico surface, but the rock hard Churchill surface that broke him down. To argue otherwise would make someone look like a fool.

If the track is muddy and deep, it bodes well for those with Dixieland Band in the pedigree. But then, like I said before, these runners are nearly carbon copies of each other in balanced pedigrees.

So I would look to the form, see who has the best forward moves, and the most run in them. Some will mature this very week and be better for Derby Day. During the eighties, nineties, and into the 2000s, the stables told the sportswriters who did so. The stables are getting wise, now, though, and know the sportswriters are not to be trusted. Those guys bet their horses down to ridiculous levels. SEA HERO was probably the hugest underlay of all time. Last year's winner was a huge underlay, too, so the sportswriters may not be as welcome to good information this time around.

More on all of this tomorrow.