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Johnny Matheis Mar 15, 09	WIN WILLY was possibly the biggest overlay of the past 2 years, in the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn on March 14. Of course I had him pegged as the winner, and picked the exacta perfectly. I had WIN WILLY listed at 15-1, and actually thought he might be lower. When he won at 56-1 odds, the only shock was why he went off so long. Most hundred dollar payoffs are simply overlays like this. Very few start off with morning lines of 20-1 or 30-1. That's because amateur gamblers will look at such morning lines and pick one of these "long shots" and bet it down. The result is that a 12-1 morning line shot will go into astronomical figures. Win Willy, by Monarchos, is obviously bred for one and one quarter miles. The dam, City Fair, is by versatile speedster Carson City, whose stamina is pretty good, too. WIN WILLY began racing at Canterbuy last August, winning a short sprint maiden. He had 3 lifetime races before the Rebel, with 2 wins, one of them in an optional claiming race. The optional claiming race is often underrated, especially with young runners. No one "knows" how good these colts really are, and class is usually determined closer to Derby Day than in March. It's a mistake to look at "class" as a factor for 2 and 3 year olds this early in the season. WIN WILLY loomed as a powerful contender, with obvious improvement, much like his bloodlines would suggest. The only real question was whether he could win the Grade 2 race at "only" one and one sixteenth miles. At Derby distance, he would've been an easy pick. Besides boasting the best bloodlines in the race, WIN WILLY had many other factors pointing to him being the only challenge to OLD FASHIONED. He was lightly raced, which is good, despite the hype swallowed by amateurs about experience. Modern trainers know that optimum performance comes from bringing the colts slowly along. Trainer McLean Robertson can be commended for wisely using the tactics of trainers like Nafzger, Zito, and McGaughey. Hopefully, he'll continue to be patient, and let the colt's progress determine whether he'll be ready for any Triple Crown races.

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WIN WILLY was possibly the biggest overlay of the past 2 years, in the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn on March 14. Of course I had him pegged as the winner, and picked the exacta perfectly. I had WIN WILLY listed at 15-1, and actually thought he might be lower. When he won at 56-1 odds, the only shock was why he went off so long.
Most hundred dollar payoffs are simply overlays like this. Very few start off with morning lines of 20-1 or 30-1. That's because amateur gamblers will look at such morning lines and pick one of these "long shots" and bet it down. The result is that a 12-1 morning line shot will go into astronomical figures.
Win Willy, by Monarchos, is obviously bred for one and one quarter miles. The dam, City Fair, is by versatile speedster Carson City, whose stamina is pretty good, too. WIN WILLY began racing at Canterbuy last August, winning a short sprint maiden. He had 3 lifetime races before the Rebel, with 2 wins, one of them in an optional claiming race.
The optional claiming race is often underrated, especially with young runners. No one "knows" how good these colts really are, and class is usually determined closer to Derby Day than in March. It's a mistake to look at "class" as a factor for 2 and 3 year olds this early in the season.
WIN WILLY loomed as a powerful contender, with obvious improvement, much like his bloodlines would suggest. The only real question was whether he could win the Grade 2 race at "only" one and one sixteenth miles. At Derby distance, he would've been an easy pick.
Besides boasting the best bloodlines in the race, WIN WILLY had many other factors pointing to him being the only challenge to OLD FASHIONED. He was lightly raced, which is good, despite the hype swallowed by amateurs about experience. Modern trainers know that optimum performance comes from bringing the colts slowly along. Trainer McLean Robertson can be commended for wisely using the tactics of trainers like Nafzger, Zito, and McGaughey. Hopefully, he'll continue to be patient, and let the colt's progress determine whether he'll be ready for any Triple Crown races.

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