Jan Hoadley's Horse Racing friend's fan blogs

Tomorrow, I'll handicap again, for the Oaks and Derby. I'm not sure I'll give Derby picks, because the Derby is a personal thing for most people. It's where the MacDonalds worker picks ARCHARCHARCH. It's where the dog lover picks MASTER OF HOUNDS. It's where the fireman and clothing store worker pick PANTS ON FIRE.

First of all, the magical dosage system. It works. Is it coincidence? Probably not. And it's speculation why it works, nothing more. Almost all of this year's runners have dosages either under 4, or very close. And a look at their pedigree makes one think they're all the same balanced runner. Most of them have Nearctic, most of them have a lot of stamina in the background, with an inkling of six furlong speedsters like Mr. Prospector, just enough for balance.

In fact, those who have some of the best pedigree didn't make the cut, or didn't perform well enough at 1 1/8 mile. There's little doubt that those who raced in Arkansas would not have held off J W Blue at 1 1/4 mile, and J W isn't even close to being considered Derby class.

Continue reading "Churchill and rain"

Now that Churchill is open, I can feel assured of handicapping for speed and forward moves a little more.

When Churchill began their trend to the rock hard surface to make speed, it was like concrete to these large horses who pound on the surface. Churchill did it because Mr Prospector, a six furlong sprinter is their favorite Kentucky bred, and was a large goose egg in breeding Derby winners. Mr Prospector foals have early speed and strong bones, so the rock hard surface was meant for future Prospector scions to have a better chance in the mile and a quarter Derby, regardless of how many other horses were crippled on Churchill's surface.

But for handicapping, this meant that after 1986, speed ruled Churchill. Class meant nothing at all, and was a detriment, due to factors like carrying extra weight and having a harder campaign, since now every single race was an ordeal twice as much as before. Lightly raced runners fared better. If you bet class at Churchill after 1986, you lost nine times out of ten, for a payoff average of 4-1, which meant you'd be better off, and actually winning, if you bet everything but the class.

Continue reading "Opening day at Churchill"

The feature race is the eighth race, the Grade 3 Bewitch at 1 1/2 mile on turf. It may go to dirt if the rain continues.

There is a solid favorite, Keertana, third in the Breeder Cup Mare Turf last year, so she is clearly the one to beat.

And if you try to beat here, you nearly have to go with a dark horse, one she hasn't faced, an up and comer.

 It's hard not to be discouraged by so many "false favorites" winning or taking you out of an exotic bet by landing in at such underlaid odds. Some races they do, and some they don't. Like many tracks, there are too many "hot tips" which endears the stable workers with the sportswriters, but sometimes a stable, a horse, or a groom, or a jockey, or an exercise rider, or a muck raker, or a hotwalker is better than people think, and does his or her job. Too many false favorites winning is the result of sheer corruption and people not doing their jobs (other than the sportswriters, who need these hot tips to sanction their jobs).

Continue reading "Keeneland pix for 04/28/2011"

We all know that while Churchill has "the race", Keeneland has "the horses". It's very common knowledge, and has been for decades, that the very best run at Keeneland. They sometimes go down a bit in quality, but they are always the tops in the world.

 So opening day is a delight, I hope.

Here is a look at the Transylvania Stakes.

FRIDAY 04/08/2011 KEENELAND RACE 9 GRADE 3 TRANSYLVANIA STAKES  1 1/16 MILE TURF

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

5 AIR SUPPORT 7-2 Shug nearly always has runners improving.

7 GREAT MILLS 9-2 Probably has another top race, but kind of risky

3 POWHATAN COUNTY 15-1 Comes off a softer track than most, and should be fit 

10 PLUCK 3-1 Has the class

Continue reading "Opening day Keeneland Spring Meet 2011, Transylvania"

I hate to see these races run on Sunday, because people who are in the union don't get to work much on Sundays, until those who have unrealistic seniority finally retire. And if this race would run on Saturday, more people would get to work.

And it just isn't as exciting on Sunday.

But here is a lowdown on the FLORIDA DERBY for 04/02/2011

FLORIDA DERBY Race 10 GULFSTREAM PARK 10/02/2011: GRADE 1 1 1/8 mile:

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

1. SOLDAT 2-1 A great trainer and a class runner, a very solid favorite.

7 DIALED IN 8-1 Zito always tough. Has good moves, and a very good upset chance

5 SHACKLEFORD 8-1 His best puts him right there, and comes off a misfire, so a logical conteder to be healthy now

Continue reading "FLORIDA DERBY has a "solid"at favorite."

I'm not sure if the New York Knicks have all the pieces in place right now, but by adding Carmelo Anthony they are certainly one big step closer to being a NBA championship contender. Although considering the mismanagement over the last 10 years it's heard to believe they won't mess this up too.

Watch for the Knicks to make some strong stragetic moves during this off season to sure things up and make them a true Eastern conference powerhouse.

New York NY Direct TV can bring you all the Knicks action you want.

Continue reading "Are the New York Knicks real contenders with Carmelo Anthony on board?"

Two cities that produce NBA Eastern Conference contenders also have the two teams that are favored to win the Super Bowl as the NFL playoffs are set to begin this weekend.

NBA spread betting experts might recognize that Atlanta and Boston produce two East contenders and with the Falcons and Patriots, both cities have the Super Bowl XLV juggernauts as well.

Just as in the NBA’s East, Atlanta’s team is viewed with an eye of pessimism. The Falcons had a great regular season but don’t have a ton of playoff experience. They’re a young squad that is gaining it on the fly.

Meanwhile, Boston’s team - just like in the NBA – is experienced, savvy and has done it before. The Patriots are the odds-on favorites to do it all and considering they’ve won it three times this decade, why bet against them?

Continue reading "Patriots, Falcons Super Bowl Favorites"

Basketball betting is not quite as common as betting on some other sports, but if you do your research, take your time and keep accurate records, there’s no reason you can’t be as successful at betting on basketball as betting on anything else. Here are a few tips to get you started.

Top Basketball Betting Tip: NCAA vs. NBA

Of course you are welcome to bet both college and pro basketball (including the WNBA), like placing your bets in online video poker games, you need to be aware that each type of basketball may have very different factors in play. In college basketball, every game counts, whereas pro teams can afford to drop a few games here and there and still have a great shot at the championship. There may be a much larger disparity between two competing college teams. Know the league you’re betting.

Continue reading "Top Basketball Betting Tips"

I really like the direction this team is going but I'm not so sure they can really be a contender in the East this year.  The East has gotten a lot stronger over the last few years and while I think they can make the playoffs I don't really see any chance that they can really beat The Magic, the Heat, the Celtics, of the Bulls.  And I'm skeptical they can even beat teams like the 76ers or the Hawks.

What do you think? 

Continue reading "Can the Charlotte Bobcats be a contender in the East?"

The most striking thing about this year's Breeder Cup races are the absences of the super top trainers, namely the big 3-McGaughey, Zito, and Nafzger. I have to respect them for not entering just to enter, but only when they feel they have the top runners.

 Meanwhile, while the world focuses on California next weekend, Keeneland is still the top dog this weekend.

McGaughey sends out PARADING in the Grade Fayette at 1 1/8 mile.  Those who saw him win the Ben Ali last Spring at Keeneland had to feel they were watching the future Breeder Cup Classic winner, but Shug knows his horse, and where to put him.

Listed at 7-5, on paper he would be 4-1 if anyone else trained him. Still, Shug is the man.

The second choice, BLAME, will be about 3-1, and is truly vulnerable. The good news is he is lightly raced, and shows a good forward move.  The bad news is his class is based on a restricted stakes race and a second in a lackluster Grade 2 field.

Continue reading "Weekend before Breeder's Cup"