The Derby Picture Sharpens

April 05, 2009

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Jan Hoadley

The Derby Picture Sharpens

There's the expected and the unexpected then sometimes there's just reminders that they have good days and bad days. Most horse owners know that until a horse is truly tested we don't know how good they are. Until we ask for that last measure that they have to give above their training and tap into their HEART we don't know if it's there. This is true for dressage horses, jumpers, reiners and every discipline but perhaps isn't so visible as with horse racing.

 

 Last weekend Dunkirk drew up with what looked to be another win on his record coming out of the turn but Quality Road found that heart. He not only looked his competitor in the eye but gave a "not today" flick of the tail and drew away to win in what looked too easy. Sometimes the challenge is less obvious, but this year is shaping up to be a banner year for the California horses shipping to Kentucky.

In the Santa Anita Derby Pioneer of the Nile lept out but in Feisty Suances and Unbridled Roman led until Pioneer of the Nile decided he was not content and took hold on the back side to push towards the front. Pioneer Of the Nile and Chocolate Candy once aain pushed a rivalry as first and second at the wire and it leaves Bob Baffert as the record fifth winner of the race. There wasn't a lot of pace and the dark colt looks like he needs something to run at. He gets at the front and the "fun" is over without something to run after. Often that is what gets a horse beaten as by the time a rival comes on it's too late. Pioneer Of The Nile it seems has not yet found his best stride - there's the question of it's as if there's something more and he hasn't yet hit his best effort.

 The Santa Anita Oaks had an exciting win for the champion Stardom Bound. In March Burg Berg set the pace with Hooh Why chasing on the back side. Stardom Bound came out four wide and started coming after Hooh Why but an extremely tight race with a four way photo is what top racing is about. What a top group of fillies! Four heads at the wire with a photo to separate and it was the grey filly by a desperate head. Third Dawn Hooh Why and Nan finished the photo with an inquiry as some of the horses drifted and Third Dawn effectively shut one filly down. The final result of the stewards inquiry showed no change in the order of finish.

 

Yesterday however in the Ashland she again trailed early and comfortably out of trouble. Hooh Why showed the way down the backside and into the turn Be Fair was the closest to her. Once again Stardom Bound came outside but Gozzip Girl and Hooh Why proved impossible for her to catch. A longshot in the betting by Cloud Hopping the Florida bred Hooh Why is headed to the Kentucky Oaks. Stardom Bound was third in the Ashland but just didn't appear to be her normal self. Tired? Having a bad day? The first part of the race appeared normal for her but that powerful kick she's known for just wasn't there.

On the other hand I Want Revenge not only answered some questions but created some in the Wood Memorial. Left at the gate he trailed early. Lord Justice, Imperial Council and Atoc Rain led down the backside but I Want Revenge eased through horses smoothly on the backside but he was behind horses coming out and seemed beaten for lack of room. He was behind and needed to check, get tight through horses with his ears up and powered to the front to hold off West Side Bernie. This colt came through problem after problem and still pulled off a win - how good is he?!

Of course there's a history of the best horses getting in traffic in the Derby and I Want Revenge may not be able to make that mistake of getting behind horses and blocked in Kentucky. He showed the ability to back off, pushed forward, overcome and most importantly seemingly not get rattled but remain calm. The incredible talent of some of the other horses will test him. There is no doubt of I Want Revenge being a very talented colt. In the G-3 Gotham Stakes the colt was second and pressed Mr. Fantasy up the backside and into the turn I Want Revenge got serious coming into the stretch and drew off in the stretch with a daylight win. He can be on the front or overcome trouble - normally two things that are assets in the Derby but with the talent that will be there mistakes will be costly.

The Illinois Derby showed Musket Man power to a two length win and stamping his ticket to Kentucky. Perfect Song shot to the front while Musket Man saved energy near but not on the front. The winner began closing ground on the inside but angled out to draw clear with Giant Oak pushing him home.

Getting less coverage than some are horses like Win Willy, Take the Points and Hold Me Back, all with chances to be there in Kentucky. Win Willy is by Monarchos out of a Carson City mare. Hold Me Back is by Giant's Causeway out of an Unbridled's Song mare. Take The Points, by Even The Score out of Ginger Ginger, might appear to be over his head. A $160,000 yearling he was fourth in the Santa Anita Derby and second in the Sham, owned by IEAH Stables, David J Lanzman and Puglisi Racing. The history of the Kentucky Derby has shown that although there must be talent to get there a horse peaking on that day may well run the race of his life. It's anyone's race once the gates open and it isn't unheard of for traffic issues to keep the speediest horse from the front of the field under the wire. And we can't forget the 7 1/4 length romp Friesan Fire made in the Louisiana Derby.

It is shaping up to be a day in Kentucky with top class three year olds. Will speed favor, will a trip make a difference and will those who have been stunning so far handle the crowds and the chaos that as youngsters none have seen before?

Keywords: Friesan Fire, Hold Me Back, I Want Revenge, Kentucky Derby, Musket Man, Pioneer Of the Nile, Stardom Bound, Take The Points, Triple Crown, Win Willy

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