horseracing Blog Posts

Weekend before Breeders Cup

Fri, 30 Oct 2009 19:15:46 PDT

The most striking thing about this year's Breeder Cup races are the absences of the super top trainers, namely the big 3-McGaughey, Zito, and Nafzger. I have to respect them for not entering just to enter, but only when they feel they have the top runners.

Meanwhile, while the world focuses on California next weekend, Keeneland is still the top dog this weekend.

McGaughey sends out PARADING in the Grade Fayette at 1 1/8 mile. Those who saw him win the Ben Ali last Spring at Keeneland had to feel they were watching the future Breeder Cup Classic winner, but Shug knows his horse, and where to put him.

Listed at 7-5, on paper he would be 4-1 if anyone else trained him. Still, Shug is the man.

The second choice, BLAME, will be about 3-1, and is truly vulnerable. The good news is he is lightly raced, and shows a good forward move. The bad news is his class is based on a restricted stakes race and a second in a lackluster Grade 2 field.

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Sun, 15 Mar 2009 12:04:05 PDT

WIN WILLY was possibly the biggest overlay of the past 2 years, in the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn on March 14. Of course I had him pegged as the winner, and picked the exacta perfectly. I had WIN WILLY listed at 15-1, and actually thought he might be lower. When he won at 56-1 odds, the only shock was why he went off so long.
Most hundred dollar payoffs are simply overlays like this. Very few start off with morning lines of 20-1 or 30-1. That's because amateur gamblers will look at such morning lines and pick one of these "long shots" and bet it down. The result is that a 12-1 morning line shot will go into astronomical figures.
Win Willy, by Monarchos, is obviously bred for one and one quarter miles. The dam, City Fair, is by versatile speedster Carson City, whose stamina is pretty good, too. WIN WILLY began racing at Canterbuy last August, winning a short sprint maiden. He had 3 lifetime races before the Rebel, with 2 wins, one of them in an optional claiming race.

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Got any good picks for weekend

Tue, 03 Jun 2008 10:00:31 PDT

Got any sure fire money in the bank picks? Post them to our forum!

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