Horse Racing's Horse Racing friend's fan blogs

Last week's Rebel had a solid favorite, and he won.

 But the big three year old races this week are at Turfway and Fair Grounds.

At Fair Grounds, the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at 1 1/8 mile is turly wide open, and you should demand value. Anything under 9-2 will take DUMB LUCK to win money on. Because there is no one on paper who wins this more than that often.

But there is a lukewarm pick, who should give a price.

RACE 10 FAIR GROUNDS LA DERBY GRADE 2 1 1/8 MILE

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

2 NEHRO 8-1-Everything points to this one, with good race over a slow Oaklawn surface, and Asmussen at his best at this early stage.

6 MACHEN 3-1 Looks extremely capable, but trainer Howard usally runs 3rd to 5th in these races

Continue reading "DEMAND VALUE IN LOUISIANA DERBY"

The question isn't whether THE FACTOR will win the Rebel Stakes Saturday, March 19, 2011, at Oaklawn Park.

 The question is "How often does he win this race?

Because unless you rely on blind luck and merely bet one race in your entire lifetime, you're wagering on overall results. That's why the odds are so important.

At 1 1/16 mile, the Rebel Stakes is still little more than a sprint. It isn't until you get to 1 1/8 mile that distance breeding really comes into play.

THE FACTOR not only has great Beyer ratings, but great speed ratings all around. He is lightly raced, and has a Grade 2 victory.

Still, what are acceptable odds? He figures to win, but this type doesn't always win. In fact, I would say he wins this only about 2 times out of 5, so 3-2 would be appropriate odds. Anything lower, and he probably will be lower, and you're betting on dumb luck to come out ahead.

Continue reading "Oaklawn's Rebel Stakes with strong favorite"

I'm not sure if the New York Knicks have all the pieces in place right now, but by adding Carmelo Anthony they are certainly one big step closer to being a NBA championship contender. Although considering the mismanagement over the last 10 years it's heard to believe they won't mess this up too.

Watch for the Knicks to make some strong stragetic moves during this off season to sure things up and make them a true Eastern conference powerhouse.

New York NY Direct TV can bring you all the Knicks action you want.

Continue reading "Are the New York Knicks real contenders with Carmelo Anthony on board?"

Two cities that produce NBA Eastern Conference contenders also have the two teams that are favored to win the Super Bowl as the NFL playoffs are set to begin this weekend.

NBA spread betting experts might recognize that Atlanta and Boston produce two East contenders and with the Falcons and Patriots, both cities have the Super Bowl XLV juggernauts as well.

Just as in the NBA’s East, Atlanta’s team is viewed with an eye of pessimism. The Falcons had a great regular season but don’t have a ton of playoff experience. They’re a young squad that is gaining it on the fly.

Meanwhile, Boston’s team - just like in the NBA – is experienced, savvy and has done it before. The Patriots are the odds-on favorites to do it all and considering they’ve won it three times this decade, why bet against them?

Continue reading "Patriots, Falcons Super Bowl Favorites"

Basketball betting is not quite as common as betting on some other sports, but if you do your research, take your time and keep accurate records, there’s no reason you can’t be as successful at betting on basketball as betting on anything else. Here are a few tips to get you started.

Top Basketball Betting Tip: NCAA vs. NBA

Of course you are welcome to bet both college and pro basketball (including the WNBA), like placing your bets in online video poker games, you need to be aware that each type of basketball may have very different factors in play. In college basketball, every game counts, whereas pro teams can afford to drop a few games here and there and still have a great shot at the championship. There may be a much larger disparity between two competing college teams. Know the league you’re betting.

Continue reading "Top Basketball Betting Tips"

I'll be working the simulcast for it at Turfway Friday evening and Saturday morning, so I probbly won't have time to talk about Saturday's races.

So I'll talk about Friday's.

I'm not too excited about this year, which is a good thing. McGuaghey only has two entires in all of the Breeder Cup races. Zito only has two I think. All of these are long shots. Nafzger has none. The big trainers are just not in. Kiarin McClglughin has a few. Of course Baffert does. Pletcher does.

Keeneland's meet ended last weekend, and what was noticable was how poor the trainers were. Keeneland is supposed to be the premier track of the world, with the best trainers, but every runner seemed to regress in fourth and fifth races off layoffs. Lukas outtrained these guys, so that's bad. Worst training I ever saw in a meet.

Continue reading "Friday Cup and other Churchill races"

The race is often the insiders vs. the handicappers. Whether the winners are those who dine with trainers and jockeys, or those who read racing forms. The insiders. at least in Kentucky, have always had a self righteous and hypocritical animosity towards those who read forms and did math. There are others who were always doomed, those who were outsiders and didn't know it, those who listened to "hot tips."

 When the insiders win, we see smug sports writers, who are part of the system, and trainers cashing big on small payoffs, what are commonly called underlays. When the third party wins, we see fixed races go "unfixed". That is, a jockey on a long shot who wasn't told not to win, who wasn't told to hold back, and we see some real outsiders win, those who bet birthdays and such. This money rarely goes back into the system, and it is why the insiders often hurt themselves with their underlays.

Continue reading "Last Keeneland live meet day 2010, a week before Breeders Cup"

I really like the direction this team is going but I'm not so sure they can really be a contender in the East this year.  The East has gotten a lot stronger over the last few years and while I think they can make the playoffs I don't really see any chance that they can really beat The Magic, the Heat, the Celtics, of the Bulls.  And I'm skeptical they can even beat teams like the 76ers or the Hawks.

What do you think? 

Continue reading "Can the Charlotte Bobcats be a contender in the East?"

Genreally, horse racing fans make good NFL fans. Not only because NFL fantasy involves Math, which is the horse racing fan's forte, but also because both involve conditioning.

A look at 2010 NFL, and what looks to happen. I'll give some predictions, but fans know that close games, injuries, blown coverages, and psycological brekdowns occur any time.

AFC EAST:

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 11-5. A lot of people think this is Brady and Moss, but New England has always been based on a "full team" concept, with lots of depth. A team like this can survive injuries, and figures to play well at the season's end. They can run and pass. The defense is adequate.

NEW YORK JETS 10-6 Needs to retain their defensive dominance. They're strong at linebacker, up front, and the backfield. They were first in pass defense last year in yards allowed, and first in first downs allowed. There's no reason to think they still can't dominate. On offense, they wer first in rushing yards, which compliments a super defense quite well. The passing game is less than what they want. Braylon Edwards is there chiefly to make opposing defenses back off the line of scrimmage. He doesn't inspire a lot of fear. It's up to a good offensive line to keep it going, and they will at first, but it isn't a deep line. Offensive linemen go down too often, and this team can't afford that. Still, a power team in the NFL.

Continue reading "NFL 2010 TO THE 2011 SPER BOWL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST"

Usually, when a showcase race like the Arlington Million has few class proven horses, that is when you actually get some of the better up and comers.

This could be bad news for desreving favorite, GIO PONTI. Still, Ponti is a must use.

In fact, this looks like a three horse races, with a fourth one looking like one to fill in a tri if someone else falters;

ARLIGNTON AUG 21, 2010, SATURDAY, RACE 10 GRADE 1 ARLINGTON MILLION: TURF 1 1/4 MILE

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH:

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLY ODDS-COMMENTS

8 TAJAAWEED 10-1 made a forward move in last race that can crush these, and form indicates he can repeat

9 TASEEZ 4-1 in the fifth race off a long layof has to figure to run big in American visit

6 GIO PONTI 8-5 is the class here

Continue reading "Arlington Million better than it appears"