Horse Racing's Horse Racing friend's fan blogs

Obviously, ANIMAL KINGDOM is the class of the Belmont. SHACKLEFORD is certainly what we would call a "running fool" and obviously the most dangerous foe. The odds will surely reflect this.

It's figuring out which you think will come out on top, and which may run out of the money. Obviously, the speedball is most likely to fade, but one never knows. After all, both have run in both triple crown races and could be down for this.

So it boils down to who else to put in the exotic wagering. MASTER OF HOUNDS, NEHRO, and MONZON are all bred for much shorter races, but the first two of these are outrunning their bloodlines so far. Neil Howard is always a danger to run in the money, though his PRIME CUT looks a cut below. The one medium priced one that I would toss out as a "sucker" play is SANTIVA. This is because he was primed for his best effort in the Derby and didn't deliver. He has flunked two straight races, and of course if you own him, you know you have a nice animal, but he isn't a grade one stakes runner. The connections may be hoping he's one of those who runs a big fluke win every now and then, but this means a win, not "in the money." He's a toss out in the exotics, unless you have a hunch to put him on top as a fluke winner.

Continue reading "Animal in Motion"

Who is Cho Myung Kwon?

 That's the big question. While the West coast horses are getting clobbered in the East, there's one old guy who is a new name in racing, who may not fit the mold.

But first, a word about the Preakness.

The Preakness is a time for people to make their private picks. ANIMAL KINGDOM is the real deal, however. He had the best forward move going into the Derby, and easily could have been bet if one ignored the "wise" guys. He's the first legitimate triple crown threat I've see in thirty years.

But this is about the Susan. I don't like small fields, but sometimes you can find a vulnerable favorite. Here, there are three favorites, and one of them is vulnerable on the issue of fitness.

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH FOR THE BLACK EYED SUSAN, RACE 10 PIMLCIO 05/20/2011 GRADE TWO 1 1/8 MILE

Continue reading "Black Eyed Susan"

The two big days are here.

So, now some big picks for Oaks Day and the Derby itself. I will pick 6 races for Oaks Day, and the Derby.

FRIDAY 05/06/2011 CHURCHILL DOWNS, KY OAKS DAY

FOR EACH RACE: PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

FIRST RACE 1 1/16 MILE MAIDEN

8 EXPRESS RUN 5-2 Zito makes the difference with this clear contender

1 ISLAND BOUND 7-2 Runs well this time of year

5 SMOTH CHARM 4-1 Baker a capable trainer

3 VIRTUOUSLY 8-1 Dale Romans also capable

6 RESERVED INDIAN 8-1 Coming off fast track, the least likely contender to be fit

2 EMPRESS OF GOLD 8-1 Watch the tote as Mott's stable usually bets them to nothing odds when ready

4 TROPIC OF AQUARIUS 8-1 4 year old must improve

Continue reading "KENTUCKY OAKS DAY 5/06/2011"

Major preps for the Derby, one with a huge favorite, the other with many who could vie for the role.

11TH RACE OAKLAWN PARK 04/16/2011 1 1/8 GRADE 1 ARKANSAS DERBY

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH:

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

11 JW BLUE 20-1 Overlooked, but has the best forward move, and worth a shot. If the favorite is truly class, the favorite will take it, but a fourth of the time this one will win this race, so worth a shot.

4 THE FACTOR 7-5 Anything higher is betable, anything lower is an underlay, but the obvious class here.

1A ALTERNATION 6-1 Solid, but reaching the boundaries of his endurance, as 49er is a sprint breeder

1 CALEB'S POSSE 6-1 Solid as other part of entry

9 ARCHARCHARCH 10-1 One of many who look solid for part

Continue reading "Bluegrass and Arkansas 2011"

I should feel good about picking the exacta perfectly in the Transylvania, but the other races let me down. Still, I feel much better after cashing a superfecta that cost 10 cents and paid over $300. Much better.

For Saturday, 04/09/2011, there are these major races.

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH FOR EACH RACE:

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS 

RACE 8 AQUEDUCT GRADE 3 BAY SHORE 7 FURLONGS

1 JUSTIN PHILLIP 8-5 Should run down all these frontrunners in the stretch

8 ROYAL CURRIER 6-1 A bit of a stalker, which helps

6 SMOKE IT RIGHT 4-1 Undefeated. A tough cookie.

3 JJ'S LUCKY TRAIN 6-1 Could hit the board

2 BUFFUM 12-1 Probably primed for good effort, but outclassed

7 VENGEFUL WILDCAT 6-1 Would be a mild surprise

Continue reading "Major races 4-9-11"

Last week's Rebel had a solid favorite, and he won.

 But the big three year old races this week are at Turfway and Fair Grounds.

At Fair Grounds, the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at 1 1/8 mile is turly wide open, and you should demand value. Anything under 9-2 will take DUMB LUCK to win money on. Because there is no one on paper who wins this more than that often.

But there is a lukewarm pick, who should give a price.

RACE 10 FAIR GROUNDS LA DERBY GRADE 2 1 1/8 MILE

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

2 NEHRO 8-1-Everything points to this one, with good race over a slow Oaklawn surface, and Asmussen at his best at this early stage.

6 MACHEN 3-1 Looks extremely capable, but trainer Howard usally runs 3rd to 5th in these races

Continue reading "DEMAND VALUE IN LOUISIANA DERBY"

The question isn't whether THE FACTOR will win the Rebel Stakes Saturday, March 19, 2011, at Oaklawn Park.

 The question is "How often does he win this race?

Because unless you rely on blind luck and merely bet one race in your entire lifetime, you're wagering on overall results. That's why the odds are so important.

At 1 1/16 mile, the Rebel Stakes is still little more than a sprint. It isn't until you get to 1 1/8 mile that distance breeding really comes into play.

THE FACTOR not only has great Beyer ratings, but great speed ratings all around. He is lightly raced, and has a Grade 2 victory.

Still, what are acceptable odds? He figures to win, but this type doesn't always win. In fact, I would say he wins this only about 2 times out of 5, so 3-2 would be appropriate odds. Anything lower, and he probably will be lower, and you're betting on dumb luck to come out ahead.

Continue reading "Oaklawn's Rebel Stakes with strong favorite"

I'm not sure if the New York Knicks have all the pieces in place right now, but by adding Carmelo Anthony they are certainly one big step closer to being a NBA championship contender. Although considering the mismanagement over the last 10 years it's heard to believe they won't mess this up too.

Watch for the Knicks to make some strong stragetic moves during this off season to sure things up and make them a true Eastern conference powerhouse.

New York NY Direct TV can bring you all the Knicks action you want.

Continue reading "Are the New York Knicks real contenders with Carmelo Anthony on board?"

Two cities that produce NBA Eastern Conference contenders also have the two teams that are favored to win the Super Bowl as the NFL playoffs are set to begin this weekend.

NBA spread betting experts might recognize that Atlanta and Boston produce two East contenders and with the Falcons and Patriots, both cities have the Super Bowl XLV juggernauts as well.

Just as in the NBA’s East, Atlanta’s team is viewed with an eye of pessimism. The Falcons had a great regular season but don’t have a ton of playoff experience. They’re a young squad that is gaining it on the fly.

Meanwhile, Boston’s team - just like in the NBA – is experienced, savvy and has done it before. The Patriots are the odds-on favorites to do it all and considering they’ve won it three times this decade, why bet against them?

Continue reading "Patriots, Falcons Super Bowl Favorites"

Basketball betting is not quite as common as betting on some other sports, but if you do your research, take your time and keep accurate records, there’s no reason you can’t be as successful at betting on basketball as betting on anything else. Here are a few tips to get you started.

Top Basketball Betting Tip: NCAA vs. NBA

Of course you are welcome to bet both college and pro basketball (including the WNBA), like placing your bets in online video poker games, you need to be aware that each type of basketball may have very different factors in play. In college basketball, every game counts, whereas pro teams can afford to drop a few games here and there and still have a great shot at the championship. There may be a much larger disparity between two competing college teams. Know the league you’re betting.

Continue reading "Top Basketball Betting Tips"