Tomorrow, I'll handicap again, for the Oaks and Derby. I'm not sure I'll give Derby picks, because the Derby is a personal thing for most people. It's where the MacDonalds worker picks ARCHARCHARCH. It's where the dog lover picks MASTER OF HOUNDS. It's where the fireman and clothing store worker pick PANTS ON FIRE.
First of all, the magical dosage system. It works. Is it coincidence? Probably not. And it's speculation why it works, nothing more. Almost all of this year's runners have dosages either under 4, or very close. And a look at their pedigree makes one think they're all the same balanced runner. Most of them have Nearctic, most of them have a lot of stamina in the background, with an inkling of six furlong speedsters like Mr. Prospector, just enough for balance.
In fact, those who have some of the best pedigree didn't make the cut, or didn't perform well enough at 1 1/8 mile. There's little doubt that those who raced in Arkansas would not have held off J W Blue at 1 1/4 mile, and J W isn't even close to being considered Derby class.
