WIN WILLY was possibly the biggest overlay of the past 2 years, in the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn on March 14. Of course I had him pegged as the winner, and picked the exacta perfectly. I had WIN WILLY listed at 15-1, and actually thought he might be lower. When he won at 56-1 odds, the only shock was why he went off so long.
Most hundred dollar payoffs are simply overlays like this. Very few start off with morning lines of 20-1 or 30-1. That's because amateur gamblers will look at such morning lines and pick one of these "long shots" and bet it down. The result is that a 12-1 morning line shot will go into astronomical figures.
Win Willy, by Monarchos, is obviously bred for one and one quarter miles. The dam, City Fair, is by versatile speedster Carson City, whose stamina is pretty good, too. WIN WILLY began racing at Canterbuy last August, winning a short sprint maiden. He had 3 lifetime races before the Rebel, with 2 wins, one of them in an optional claiming race.
