Horse Racing's Horse Racing fan blog

Tomorrow, I'll handicap again, for the Oaks and Derby. I'm not sure I'll give Derby picks, because the Derby is a personal thing for most people. It's where the MacDonalds worker picks ARCHARCHARCH. It's where the dog lover picks MASTER OF HOUNDS. It's where the fireman and clothing store worker pick PANTS ON FIRE.

First of all, the magical dosage system. It works. Is it coincidence? Probably not. And it's speculation why it works, nothing more. Almost all of this year's runners have dosages either under 4, or very close. And a look at their pedigree makes one think they're all the same balanced runner. Most of them have Nearctic, most of them have a lot of stamina in the background, with an inkling of six furlong speedsters like Mr. Prospector, just enough for balance.

In fact, those who have some of the best pedigree didn't make the cut, or didn't perform well enough at 1 1/8 mile. There's little doubt that those who raced in Arkansas would not have held off J W Blue at 1 1/4 mile, and J W isn't even close to being considered Derby class.

Continue reading "Churchill and rain"

Now that Churchill is open, I can feel assured of handicapping for speed and forward moves a little more.

When Churchill began their trend to the rock hard surface to make speed, it was like concrete to these large horses who pound on the surface. Churchill did it because Mr Prospector, a six furlong sprinter is their favorite Kentucky bred, and was a large goose egg in breeding Derby winners. Mr Prospector foals have early speed and strong bones, so the rock hard surface was meant for future Prospector scions to have a better chance in the mile and a quarter Derby, regardless of how many other horses were crippled on Churchill's surface.

But for handicapping, this meant that after 1986, speed ruled Churchill. Class meant nothing at all, and was a detriment, due to factors like carrying extra weight and having a harder campaign, since now every single race was an ordeal twice as much as before. Lightly raced runners fared better. If you bet class at Churchill after 1986, you lost nine times out of ten, for a payoff average of 4-1, which meant you'd be better off, and actually winning, if you bet everything but the class.

Continue reading "Opening day at Churchill"

The feature race is the eighth race, the Grade 3 Bewitch at 1 1/2 mile on turf. It may go to dirt if the rain continues.

There is a solid favorite, Keertana, third in the Breeder Cup Mare Turf last year, so she is clearly the one to beat.

And if you try to beat here, you nearly have to go with a dark horse, one she hasn't faced, an up and comer.

 It's hard not to be discouraged by so many "false favorites" winning or taking you out of an exotic bet by landing in at such underlaid odds. Some races they do, and some they don't. Like many tracks, there are too many "hot tips" which endears the stable workers with the sportswriters, but sometimes a stable, a horse, or a groom, or a jockey, or an exercise rider, or a muck raker, or a hotwalker is better than people think, and does his or her job. Too many false favorites winning is the result of sheer corruption and people not doing their jobs (other than the sportswriters, who need these hot tips to sanction their jobs).

Continue reading "Keeneland pix for 04/28/2011"

We all know that while Churchill has "the race", Keeneland has "the horses". It's very common knowledge, and has been for decades, that the very best run at Keeneland. They sometimes go down a bit in quality, but they are always the tops in the world.

 So opening day is a delight, I hope.

Here is a look at the Transylvania Stakes.

FRIDAY 04/08/2011 KEENELAND RACE 9 GRADE 3 TRANSYLVANIA STAKES  1 1/16 MILE TURF

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

5 AIR SUPPORT 7-2 Shug nearly always has runners improving.

7 GREAT MILLS 9-2 Probably has another top race, but kind of risky

3 POWHATAN COUNTY 15-1 Comes off a softer track than most, and should be fit 

10 PLUCK 3-1 Has the class

Continue reading "Opening day Keeneland Spring Meet 2011, Transylvania"

I hate to see these races run on Sunday, because people who are in the union don't get to work much on Sundays, until those who have unrealistic seniority finally retire. And if this race would run on Saturday, more people would get to work.

And it just isn't as exciting on Sunday.

But here is a lowdown on the FLORIDA DERBY for 04/02/2011

FLORIDA DERBY Race 10 GULFSTREAM PARK 10/02/2011: GRADE 1 1 1/8 mile:

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

1. SOLDAT 2-1 A great trainer and a class runner, a very solid favorite.

7 DIALED IN 8-1 Zito always tough. Has good moves, and a very good upset chance

5 SHACKLEFORD 8-1 His best puts him right there, and comes off a misfire, so a logical conteder to be healthy now

Continue reading "FLORIDA DERBY has a "solid"at favorite."

The most striking thing about this year's Breeder Cup races are the absences of the super top trainers, namely the big 3-McGaughey, Zito, and Nafzger. I have to respect them for not entering just to enter, but only when they feel they have the top runners.

 Meanwhile, while the world focuses on California next weekend, Keeneland is still the top dog this weekend.

McGaughey sends out PARADING in the Grade Fayette at 1 1/8 mile.  Those who saw him win the Ben Ali last Spring at Keeneland had to feel they were watching the future Breeder Cup Classic winner, but Shug knows his horse, and where to put him.

Listed at 7-5, on paper he would be 4-1 if anyone else trained him. Still, Shug is the man.

The second choice, BLAME, will be about 3-1, and is truly vulnerable. The good news is he is lightly raced, and shows a good forward move.  The bad news is his class is based on a restricted stakes race and a second in a lackluster Grade 2 field.

Continue reading "Weekend before Breeder's Cup"

WIN WILLY was possibly the biggest overlay of the past 2 years, in the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn on March 14. Of course I had him pegged as the winner, and picked the exacta perfectly. I had WIN WILLY listed at 15-1, and actually thought he might be lower. When he won at 56-1 odds, the only shock was why he went off so long.
Most hundred dollar payoffs are simply overlays like this. Very few start off with morning lines of 20-1 or 30-1. That's because amateur gamblers will look at such morning lines and pick one of these "long shots" and bet it down. The result is that a 12-1 morning line shot will go into astronomical figures.
Win Willy, by Monarchos, is obviously bred for one and one quarter miles. The dam, City Fair, is by versatile speedster Carson City, whose stamina is pretty good, too. WIN WILLY began racing at Canterbuy last August, winning a short sprint maiden. He had 3 lifetime races before the Rebel, with 2 wins, one of them in an optional claiming race.

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Continue reading "Got any good picks for weekend?"