Johnny Matheis's Horse Racing fan blog

The question isn't whether THE FACTOR will win the Rebel Stakes Saturday, March 19, 2011, at Oaklawn Park.

 The question is "How often does he win this race?

Because unless you rely on blind luck and merely bet one race in your entire lifetime, you're wagering on overall results. That's why the odds are so important.

At 1 1/16 mile, the Rebel Stakes is still little more than a sprint. It isn't until you get to 1 1/8 mile that distance breeding really comes into play.

THE FACTOR not only has great Beyer ratings, but great speed ratings all around. He is lightly raced, and has a Grade 2 victory.

Still, what are acceptable odds? He figures to win, but this type doesn't always win. In fact, I would say he wins this only about 2 times out of 5, so 3-2 would be appropriate odds. Anything lower, and he probably will be lower, and you're betting on dumb luck to come out ahead.

Continue reading "Oaklawn's Rebel Stakes with strong favorite"

I'll be working the simulcast for it at Turfway Friday evening and Saturday morning, so I probbly won't have time to talk about Saturday's races.

So I'll talk about Friday's.

I'm not too excited about this year, which is a good thing. McGuaghey only has two entires in all of the Breeder Cup races. Zito only has two I think. All of these are long shots. Nafzger has none. The big trainers are just not in. Kiarin McClglughin has a few. Of course Baffert does. Pletcher does.

Keeneland's meet ended last weekend, and what was noticable was how poor the trainers were. Keeneland is supposed to be the premier track of the world, with the best trainers, but every runner seemed to regress in fourth and fifth races off layoffs. Lukas outtrained these guys, so that's bad. Worst training I ever saw in a meet.

Continue reading "Friday Cup and other Churchill races"

The race is often the insiders vs. the handicappers. Whether the winners are those who dine with trainers and jockeys, or those who read racing forms. The insiders. at least in Kentucky, have always had a self righteous and hypocritical animosity towards those who read forms and did math. There are others who were always doomed, those who were outsiders and didn't know it, those who listened to "hot tips."

 When the insiders win, we see smug sports writers, who are part of the system, and trainers cashing big on small payoffs, what are commonly called underlays. When the third party wins, we see fixed races go "unfixed". That is, a jockey on a long shot who wasn't told not to win, who wasn't told to hold back, and we see some real outsiders win, those who bet birthdays and such. This money rarely goes back into the system, and it is why the insiders often hurt themselves with their underlays.

Continue reading "Last Keeneland live meet day 2010, a week before Breeders Cup"

Genreally, horse racing fans make good NFL fans. Not only because NFL fantasy involves Math, which is the horse racing fan's forte, but also because both involve conditioning.

A look at 2010 NFL, and what looks to happen. I'll give some predictions, but fans know that close games, injuries, blown coverages, and psycological brekdowns occur any time.

AFC EAST:

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 11-5. A lot of people think this is Brady and Moss, but New England has always been based on a "full team" concept, with lots of depth. A team like this can survive injuries, and figures to play well at the season's end. They can run and pass. The defense is adequate.

NEW YORK JETS 10-6 Needs to retain their defensive dominance. They're strong at linebacker, up front, and the backfield. They were first in pass defense last year in yards allowed, and first in first downs allowed. There's no reason to think they still can't dominate. On offense, they wer first in rushing yards, which compliments a super defense quite well. The passing game is less than what they want. Braylon Edwards is there chiefly to make opposing defenses back off the line of scrimmage. He doesn't inspire a lot of fear. It's up to a good offensive line to keep it going, and they will at first, but it isn't a deep line. Offensive linemen go down too often, and this team can't afford that. Still, a power team in the NFL.

Continue reading "NFL 2010 TO THE 2011 SPER BOWL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST"

Usually, when a showcase race like the Arlington Million has few class proven horses, that is when you actually get some of the better up and comers.

This could be bad news for desreving favorite, GIO PONTI. Still, Ponti is a must use.

In fact, this looks like a three horse races, with a fourth one looking like one to fill in a tri if someone else falters;

ARLIGNTON AUG 21, 2010, SATURDAY, RACE 10 GRADE 1 ARLINGTON MILLION: TURF 1 1/4 MILE

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH:

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLY ODDS-COMMENTS

8 TAJAAWEED 10-1 made a forward move in last race that can crush these, and form indicates he can repeat

9 TASEEZ 4-1 in the fifth race off a long layof has to figure to run big in American visit

6 GIO PONTI 8-5 is the class here

Continue reading "Arlington Million better than it appears"

I've been crowing about Zito's ICE BOX since well before the derby, and he landed second in that race at 11-1, which actually made him one of the lower prices in a strange derby with an 8-1 favorite.

Now, he's likely to be the Belmont favorite, and justly so, but with near favorites winning both the earlier races of the triple crown, one would expect a long shot to finally emerge. The second choice has won both races. Not exactly chalk, but certainly the second lowest price possible.

Still, Zito is a pro. He isn't likely to enter either of his colts at less than 100%, and certainly won't run a hurt colt.

Figuring on 10 cent superfectas, one can still find value.

06/05/2010 11th Race BELMONT, 1 1/2 MILE GRADE 1 BELMONT:

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH:

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

Continue reading "How to Ice a Belmont box"

Kentucky is one of the most crooked in the country in most things, Horse racing included. You can't tell by "reports", because a truly corrupt system will not report abuses.

But we knew they would do it for the huge pick six carry over Thursday. And I watched, and found an obvious cheat.

Contrary to belief, it isn't the jockey who is to be watched. They try to stay aboard an animal and hold on for their health. It is the trainer who can "juice up" a horse. "Juicing up" may or may not involve illegal substances, but it involves having a horse ready or not. This is okay, as long as it is not blabbed to all the sports writers, trainers, and hoodlums who bet it down.

In the eighth race, which was the 4th leg of the pick six, CLASSIC EMILY was one that looked to route this group on paper. She figured to go off at 2-1. She already manhandled most of them, and the only real competition looked to be from PROUDLY IRISH, who should have been second choice around 4-1.

Continue reading "No pleasure in reporting horsemen cheating"

I feel guilty again. I didn't have time to handicap, work, and post Friday night, but the races at Churchill on Derby Day were uncommonly form fitting.

In fact, I have no complaints. I even bet a small pick 6, using only eight combinations, using only singles and at most two horses in a race, and still got 3 winners and three seconds. I figured I would easily have had the five win consolation if I just went ahead and bet 20 combinations for 40 bucks.

Naturally, I skipped the first race, which had such a short field that only people following certain horses or trainers could possibly bet it without being called amateurs. I really loved SPICER, who ran third in the second race, thinking he'd be a good one, but he is falling short. I'm sure it is no fault of Nafzger, though, as he's doing everything he can. I still expect this one to be a stakes runner some day. Still, there were only two obvious competitors, and they ran first and second, so the tri box was a "gimme" and paid very well.

Continue reading "Form filled Derby day"

When you work at Keeneland, it doesn't seem like it takes long til Derby arrives.

First, the Oaks day. I'm not keen on Oaks-Derby Doubles. Doubles and pick Threes are for those who rely on dumb luck. Since one juiced up hot tip can beat you out of any win, it involves more luck for pick threes and doubles, and more handicapping for trifectas and superfectas.

FRIDAY 04/30/2010

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

CHURCHILL RACE 2: MDN 1 MILE

4 KAREN ANN 3-1 Bred to improve each race, already has the times to conquer this filed

1 RIGAMARO 15-1 looks second best on paper

2 ISLAND BOUND 4-1 a contender here

6 OFFICERS GLORY 12-1 ran close to top pick at Keeneland

10 CROWN THE CAT 12-1 loks to run in the stretch at most levels, probably here, too

Continue reading "Oaks and Derby"

Just a brief note today on the Derby field. Today I'll focus on bloodlines.

We see a lot of good cross breeding, with little duplication as far as 5 generations back, and peole are thinking of new classifications for chef-de-races.

The filly, DEVIL MAY CARE is generously granted a dosage of 2.53, but is the most speed oriented runner in the race, with Mr Prospector listed twice. As a female in the animal kingdom, she does develop at a younger age than males, so figure them to still be growing. The Derby is usually a filly's best chance. Still, she is up against it, and is a toss out on bloodlines and on being a filly.

DEAN'S KITTEN is granted a 1.15 dosage, and I like some of his pedigree, usually following NASKRA AND LENJOLEUR, but it is hard to see this pedigree being classic distance overall, and he has had a tough campaign. I'd be reluctant to use him in exotic wagers, too, based on this.

Continue reading "Spot plays Thursday 04/29/2010"