It's figuring out which you think will come out on top, and which may run out of the money. Obviously, the speedball is most likely to fade, but one never knows. After all, both have run in both triple crown races and could be down for this.

So it boils down to who else to put in the exotic wagering. MASTER OF HOUNDS, NEHRO, and MONZON are all bred for much shorter races, but the first two of these are outrunning their bloodlines so far. Neil Howard is always a danger to run in the money, though his PRIME CUT looks a cut below. The one medium priced one that I would toss out as a "sucker" play is SANTIVA. This is because he was primed for his best effort in the Derby and didn't deliver. He has flunked two straight races, and of course if you own him, you know you have a nice animal, but he isn't a grade one stakes runner. The connections may be hoping he's one of those who runs a big fluke win every now and then, but this means a win, not "in the money." He's a toss out in the exotics, unless you have a hunch to put him on top as a fluke winner.

Continue reading "Animal in Motion"

 That's the big question. While the West coast horses are getting clobbered in the East, there's one old guy who is a new name in racing, who may not fit the mold.

But first, a word about the Preakness.

The Preakness is a time for people to make their private picks. ANIMAL KINGDOM is the real deal, however. He had the best forward move going into the Derby, and easily could have been bet if one ignored the "wise" guys. He's the first legitimate triple crown threat I've see in thirty years.

But this is about the Susan. I don't like small fields, but sometimes you can find a vulnerable favorite. Here, there are three favorites, and one of them is vulnerable on the issue of fitness.

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH FOR THE BLACK EYED SUSAN, RACE 10 PIMLCIO 05/20/2011 GRADE TWO 1 1/8 MILE

Continue reading "Black Eyed Susan"

So, now some big picks for Oaks Day and the Derby itself. I will pick 6 races for Oaks Day, and the Derby.

FRIDAY 05/06/2011 CHURCHILL DOWNS, KY OAKS DAY

FOR EACH RACE: PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

FIRST RACE 1 1/16 MILE MAIDEN

8 EXPRESS RUN 5-2 Zito makes the difference with this clear contender

1 ISLAND BOUND 7-2 Runs well this time of year

5 SMOTH CHARM 4-1 Baker a capable trainer

3 VIRTUOUSLY 8-1 Dale Romans also capable

6 RESERVED INDIAN 8-1 Coming off fast track, the least likely contender to be fit

2 EMPRESS OF GOLD 8-1 Watch the tote as Mott's stable usually bets them to nothing odds when ready

4 TROPIC OF AQUARIUS 8-1 4 year old must improve

Continue reading "KENTUCKY OAKS DAY 5062011"

11TH RACE OAKLAWN PARK 04/16/2011 1 1/8 GRADE 1 ARKANSAS DERBY

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH:

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

11 JW BLUE 20-1 Overlooked, but has the best forward move, and worth a shot. If the favorite is truly class, the favorite will take it, but a fourth of the time this one will win this race, so worth a shot.

4 THE FACTOR 7-5 Anything higher is betable, anything lower is an underlay, but the obvious class here.

1A ALTERNATION 6-1 Solid, but reaching the boundaries of his endurance, as 49er is a sprint breeder

1 CALEB'S POSSE 6-1 Solid as other part of entry

9 ARCHARCHARCH 10-1 One of many who look solid for part

Continue reading "Bluegrass and Arkansas 2011"

For Saturday, 04/09/2011, there are these major races.

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH FOR EACH RACE:

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS 

RACE 8 AQUEDUCT GRADE 3 BAY SHORE 7 FURLONGS

1 JUSTIN PHILLIP 8-5 Should run down all these frontrunners in the stretch

8 ROYAL CURRIER 6-1 A bit of a stalker, which helps

6 SMOKE IT RIGHT 4-1 Undefeated. A tough cookie.

3 JJ'S LUCKY TRAIN 6-1 Could hit the board

2 BUFFUM 12-1 Probably primed for good effort, but outclassed

7 VENGEFUL WILDCAT 6-1 Would be a mild surprise

Continue reading "Major races 4-9-11"

 But the big three year old races this week are at Turfway and Fair Grounds.

At Fair Grounds, the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at 1 1/8 mile is turly wide open, and you should demand value. Anything under 9-2 will take DUMB LUCK to win money on. Because there is no one on paper who wins this more than that often.

But there is a lukewarm pick, who should give a price.

RACE 10 FAIR GROUNDS LA DERBY GRADE 2 1 1/8 MILE

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

2 NEHRO 8-1-Everything points to this one, with good race over a slow Oaklawn surface, and Asmussen at his best at this early stage.

6 MACHEN 3-1 Looks extremely capable, but trainer Howard usally runs 3rd to 5th in these races

Continue reading "DEMAND VALUE IN LOUISIANA DERBY"

 The question is "How often does he win this race?

Because unless you rely on blind luck and merely bet one race in your entire lifetime, you're wagering on overall results. That's why the odds are so important.

At 1 1/16 mile, the Rebel Stakes is still little more than a sprint. It isn't until you get to 1 1/8 mile that distance breeding really comes into play.

THE FACTOR not only has great Beyer ratings, but great speed ratings all around. He is lightly raced, and has a Grade 2 victory.

Still, what are acceptable odds? He figures to win, but this type doesn't always win. In fact, I would say he wins this only about 2 times out of 5, so 3-2 would be appropriate odds. Anything lower, and he probably will be lower, and you're betting on dumb luck to come out ahead.

Continue reading "Oaklawns Rebel Stakes with strong favorite"

Continue reading "Friday Cup and other Churchill races"

 When the insiders win, we see smug sports writers, who are part of the system, and trainers cashing big on small payoffs, what are commonly called underlays. When the third party wins, we see fixed races go "unfixed". That is, a jockey on a long shot who wasn't told not to win, who wasn't told to hold back, and we see some real outsiders win, those who bet birthdays and such. This money rarely goes back into the system, and it is why the insiders often hurt themselves with their underlays.

Continue reading "Last Keeneland live meet day 2010 a week before Breeders Cup"

A look at 2010 NFL, and what looks to happen. I'll give some predictions, but fans know that close games, injuries, blown coverages, and psycological brekdowns occur any time.

AFC EAST:

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 11-5. A lot of people think this is Brady and Moss, but New England has always been based on a "full team" concept, with lots of depth. A team like this can survive injuries, and figures to play well at the season's end. They can run and pass. The defense is adequate.

NEW YORK JETS 10-6 Needs to retain their defensive dominance. They're strong at linebacker, up front, and the backfield. They were first in pass defense last year in yards allowed, and first in first downs allowed. There's no reason to think they still can't dominate. On offense, they wer first in rushing yards, which compliments a super defense quite well. The passing game is less than what they want. Braylon Edwards is there chiefly to make opposing defenses back off the line of scrimmage. He doesn't inspire a lot of fear. It's up to a good offensive line to keep it going, and they will at first, but it isn't a deep line. Offensive linemen go down too often, and this team can't afford that. Still, a power team in the NFL.

Continue reading "NFL 2010 TO THE 2011 SPER BOWL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST"