Now, he's likely to be the Belmont favorite, and justly so, but with near favorites winning both the earlier races of the triple crown, one would expect a long shot to finally emerge. The second choice has won both races. Not exactly chalk, but certainly the second lowest price possible.

Still, Zito is a pro. He isn't likely to enter either of his colts at less than 100%, and certainly won't run a hurt colt.

Figuring on 10 cent superfectas, one can still find value.

06/05/2010 11th Race BELMONT, 1 1/2 MILE GRADE 1 BELMONT:

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH:

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

Continue reading "How to Ice a Belmont box"

But we knew they would do it for the huge pick six carry over Thursday. And I watched, and found an obvious cheat.

Contrary to belief, it isn't the jockey who is to be watched. They try to stay aboard an animal and hold on for their health. It is the trainer who can "juice up" a horse. "Juicing up" may or may not involve illegal substances, but it involves having a horse ready or not. This is okay, as long as it is not blabbed to all the sports writers, trainers, and hoodlums who bet it down.

In the eighth race, which was the 4th leg of the pick six, CLASSIC EMILY was one that looked to route this group on paper. She figured to go off at 2-1. She already manhandled most of them, and the only real competition looked to be from PROUDLY IRISH, who should have been second choice around 4-1.

Continue reading "No pleasure in reporting horsemen cheating"

In fact, I have no complaints. I even bet a small pick 6, using only eight combinations, using only singles and at most two horses in a race, and still got 3 winners and three seconds. I figured I would easily have had the five win consolation if I just went ahead and bet 20 combinations for 40 bucks.

Naturally, I skipped the first race, which had such a short field that only people following certain horses or trainers could possibly bet it without being called amateurs. I really loved SPICER, who ran third in the second race, thinking he'd be a good one, but he is falling short. I'm sure it is no fault of Nafzger, though, as he's doing everything he can. I still expect this one to be a stakes runner some day. Still, there were only two obvious competitors, and they ran first and second, so the tri box was a "gimme" and paid very well.

Continue reading "Form filled Derby day"

First, the Oaks day. I'm not keen on Oaks-Derby Doubles. Doubles and pick Threes are for those who rely on dumb luck. Since one juiced up hot tip can beat you out of any win, it involves more luck for pick threes and doubles, and more handicapping for trifectas and superfectas.

FRIDAY 04/30/2010

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

CHURCHILL RACE 2: MDN 1 MILE

4 KAREN ANN 3-1 Bred to improve each race, already has the times to conquer this filed

1 RIGAMARO 15-1 looks second best on paper

2 ISLAND BOUND 4-1 a contender here

6 OFFICERS GLORY 12-1 ran close to top pick at Keeneland

10 CROWN THE CAT 12-1 loks to run in the stretch at most levels, probably here, too

Continue reading "Oaks and Derby"

We see a lot of good cross breeding, with little duplication as far as 5 generations back, and peole are thinking of new classifications for chef-de-races.

The filly, DEVIL MAY CARE is generously granted a dosage of 2.53, but is the most speed oriented runner in the race, with Mr Prospector listed twice. As a female in the animal kingdom, she does develop at a younger age than males, so figure them to still be growing. The Derby is usually a filly's best chance. Still, she is up against it, and is a toss out on bloodlines and on being a filly.

DEAN'S KITTEN is granted a 1.15 dosage, and I like some of his pedigree, usually following NASKRA AND LENJOLEUR, but it is hard to see this pedigree being classic distance overall, and he has had a tough campaign. I'd be reluctant to use him in exotic wagers, too, based on this.

Continue reading "Spot plays Thursday 04292010"

Which brings up the Derby contenders.

One in particular, SIDNEY'S CANDY, is bred for the softer cushion of turf and weter tracks. He would be out of his element if the weather was dry and sunny on Thursday and Friday, baking the track into a hard rock again.

However, he would be a monster if the track was not as insanely hard. Churchill does this on purpose. MR PROSPECTOR is a favorite Kentucky stallion, although he was just a 6 furlong specialist, and many of the same people who owned Churchill stock owned stock in MR PROSPECTOR.

MR PROSPECTOR foals were something like 0 for 40 leading into the late 1980s, for the Kentucky Derby, the biggest goose egg ever.

Continue reading "Now it rains"

I feel guiting guilty, because I didn't give a lot of great tips over the Keeneland meet, yet still won big, patiently waiting for the big overlays. A huge payoff and exacta on Wednesday, along with an incredible payoff for the feature race on the final day, which involved the two top class runners (the winner running second in the same race last year miraculously went off at 7-1 against a lesser field) and the third place finisher at overlay odds after showing some of the best forward moves at Tampa. I boxed them in the trifecta and had them on top of the other 2 major contenders to hit the superfecta, and filled out the IRS forms for both.

Continue reading "Churchill opens"

I feel guiting guilty, because I didn't give a lot of great tips over the Keeneland meet, yet still won big, patiently waiting for the big overlays. A huge payoff and exacta on Wednesday, along with an incredible payoff for the feature race on the final day, which involved the two top class runners (the winner running second in the same race last year miraculously went off at 7-1 against a lesser field) and the third place finisher at overlay odds after showing some of the best forward moves at Tampa. I boxed them in the trifecta and had them on top of the other 2 major contenders to hit the superfecta, and filled out the IRS forms for both.

Continue reading "Churchill opens"

Keeneland has been running horribly off form and not paying  the prices for it. This means too much interaction between backside people against the public, so I have found greener pastures at other tracks. For instance, Friday at Gulfstream, the ninth race couldn't have run much truer to form, yet a dead heat for fourth produced two superfectas that paid over $100 for a ten cent bet (payoff odds of over 1000-1)

But it is Hawthorne's 9th race that looks the best, with the conditions usually helping the handicapper

9TH RACE HAWTHORNED 6 FURLONG CLAIMING NON WINNERS OF 3 LIFETIME RACES

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH:

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

2 EARTHQUAKE LASS 7-2 but don't be afraid if it goes down to 5-2. Not only does she have the best moves and form, but she is dropping in class while showing speed, a great angle. This one is tough to beat.

Continue reading "Spot play for 04172010"

Could he be the strongest speed foir the Kentucky Derby? He has an intriguing bloodline. There is very little duplication, as you go back 5 generations, and a lot of champions. This would seem to be a good thing.

I haven't made up my mind yet.

Now, for the final Derby prep races. One of them is at Keeneland.

Saturday 04/17/2010: RACE 9 KEENELAND GRADE 2 1 1/16 MILE LEXINGTON

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH:

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

3 DISTORTED DAVE 5-2 has best forward move, and comes off fairly soft surface agianst top Santa Anita competition. Obviously the one to beat.

Continue reading "Keys to the Lexington"