The Wood is a six horse field, and the two chalkier runners look tough, while the other 4 need improvement. Improvement is possible. But this not a betable race. There are many words for people who bet this race, but "handicapper" is not among them. To win money on races like this involves nothing but "dumb" luck.

 If Eskendereya does get beat, and still runs a good second or third, then the winner deserves note.

The Illinois Derby is the most betable, with Calfornia being more of a form filler race.

7th RACE HAWTHORNE 1 1/8 MILE GRADE 3 ILLINOIS DERBY

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH:

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-ROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS:

7 BACKTALK 6-1 Amoss has emerged as one of the secret handicapper's trainers the last few years. This one comes off a track that probably wasn't that rock hard, and figures to be healthy. Expect a better time here.

Continue reading "Illinois Derby the most betable prep today"

Before getting to the big races, most people like to wager on the races leading up to them. Here are some nice spot plays for 04/03/2010:

For each race, there will be a projected order of finish, listing, in order:

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS:

Then good bets, exactas, 50 cent trifectas and 10 cent superfectas will be listed:

2nd RACE GULFSTREAM 1 MILE Maiden claiming:

6 RUTH WONDERS 7-2 -Looks to be a sure thing, but anything is possible with young runners 

9 INTERCOM 8-1 Consistent, not likely to win, but hard to keep off board here

7 COUNTRY GREEN 20-1 Addition of Lasix may be all that's needed to hit board here

12 DANCE OF THE TIGER 4-1 Big class drop makes it a "must use" in exotics

2 I CAN SEE A GENIUS 20-1 Ran poorly as a 2 year old in September, has time to grow, and good jockey change

Continue reading "Spot plays 04/03/2010"

The present Keeneland meet has not been betable. Hot tips are winning and paying low odds, which is the peak of corruption. The daily racing form is completely useless, and sales will drop again.

This won'[t affect big days like 04/10/2010 with the Blue Grass Stakes, a major Grade 1 prep for the Kentucky Derby. It just meansa that backside stables are too friendly with each other, which is the same as dishonest racing. The public gets the shaft when trainers all decide who should win a race. Sometimes, though, they get fooled, and forget to tell an outsider or a jockey, who passes up their favorite in the stretch and wins at long odds.

The Blue Grass doesn't look like a betable race. No one stands out. AIKENITE looks best, but PADDY O'PRADO, who looks second best, has more upside for the race, coming off a turf course with a little more cushion.

Continue reading "Not betable"

Who knew my Arkansas Derby pick, LINE OF DAVID would pay as much as he did? Of course I bet him early, expecting about 4-1 odds on the obvious pick, and the only speed in the race.

Could he be the strongest speed foir the Kentucky Derby? He has an intriguing bloodline. There is very little duplication, as you go back 5 generations, and a lot of champions. This would seem to be a good thing.

I haven't made up my mind yet.

Now, for the final Derby prep races. One of them is at Keeneland.

Saturday 04/17/2010: RACE 9 KEENELAND GRADE 2 1 1/16 MILE LEXINGTON

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH:

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

3 DISTORTED DAVE 5-2 has best forward move, and comes off fairly soft surface agianst top Santa Anita competition. Obviously the one to beat.

Continue reading "Keys to the Lexington"

Now for the spot play for Saturday.

Keeneland has been running horribly off form and not paying  the prices for it. This means too much interaction between backside people against the public, so I have found greener pastures at other tracks. For instance, Friday at Gulfstream, the ninth race couldn't have run much truer to form, yet a dead heat for fourth produced two superfectas that paid over $100 for a ten cent bet (payoff odds of over 1000-1)

But it is Hawthorne's 9th race that looks the best, with the conditions usually helping the handicapper

9TH RACE HAWTHORNED 6 FURLONG CLAIMING NON WINNERS OF 3 LIFETIME RACES

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH:

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

2 EARTHQUAKE LASS 7-2 but don't be afraid if it goes down to 5-2. Not only does she have the best moves and form, but she is dropping in class while showing speed, a great angle. This one is tough to beat.

Continue reading "Spot play for 04/17/2010"

And if we thought speed held at Keeneland, wait till they run on that hard surface at Churchill that hasn't seen too much rain the last month.

I feel guiting guilty, because I didn't give a lot of great tips over the Keeneland meet, yet still won big, patiently waiting for the big overlays. A huge payoff and exacta on Wednesday, along with an incredible payoff for the feature race on the final day, which involved the two top class runners (the winner running second in the same race last year miraculously went off at 7-1 against a lesser field) and the third place finisher at overlay odds after showing some of the best forward moves at Tampa. I boxed them in the trifecta and had them on top of the other 2 major contenders to hit the superfecta, and filled out the IRS forms for both.

Continue reading "Churchill opens"

And if we thought speed held at Keeneland, wait till they run on that hard surface at Churchill that hasn't seen too much rain the last month.

I feel guiting guilty, because I didn't give a lot of great tips over the Keeneland meet, yet still won big, patiently waiting for the big overlays. A huge payoff and exacta on Wednesday, along with an incredible payoff for the feature race on the final day, which involved the two top class runners (the winner running second in the same race last year miraculously went off at 7-1 against a lesser field) and the third place finisher at overlay odds after showing some of the best forward moves at Tampa. I boxed them in the trifecta and had them on top of the other 2 major contenders to hit the superfecta, and filled out the IRS forms for both.

Continue reading "Churchill opens"

Of course as soon as I mentioned the lack of rain and the hard track, we had a deluge right afterwards, which meant Saturday's card had to be handicapped completely different.

Which brings up the Derby contenders.

One in particular, SIDNEY'S CANDY, is bred for the softer cushion of turf and weter tracks. He would be out of his element if the weather was dry and sunny on Thursday and Friday, baking the track into a hard rock again.

However, he would be a monster if the track was not as insanely hard. Churchill does this on purpose. MR PROSPECTOR is a favorite Kentucky stallion, although he was just a 6 furlong specialist, and many of the same people who owned Churchill stock owned stock in MR PROSPECTOR.

MR PROSPECTOR foals were something like 0 for 40 leading into the late 1980s, for the Kentucky Derby, the biggest goose egg ever.

Continue reading "Now it rains"

Just a brief note today on the Derby field. Today I'll focus on bloodlines.

We see a lot of good cross breeding, with little duplication as far as 5 generations back, and peole are thinking of new classifications for chef-de-races.

The filly, DEVIL MAY CARE is generously granted a dosage of 2.53, but is the most speed oriented runner in the race, with Mr Prospector listed twice. As a female in the animal kingdom, she does develop at a younger age than males, so figure them to still be growing. The Derby is usually a filly's best chance. Still, she is up against it, and is a toss out on bloodlines and on being a filly.

DEAN'S KITTEN is granted a 1.15 dosage, and I like some of his pedigree, usually following NASKRA AND LENJOLEUR, but it is hard to see this pedigree being classic distance overall, and he has had a tough campaign. I'd be reluctant to use him in exotic wagers, too, based on this.

Continue reading "Spot plays Thursday 04/29/2010"

When you work at Keeneland, it doesn't seem like it takes long til Derby arrives.

First, the Oaks day. I'm not keen on Oaks-Derby Doubles. Doubles and pick Threes are for those who rely on dumb luck. Since one juiced up hot tip can beat you out of any win, it involves more luck for pick threes and doubles, and more handicapping for trifectas and superfectas.

FRIDAY 04/30/2010

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

CHURCHILL RACE 2: MDN 1 MILE

4 KAREN ANN 3-1 Bred to improve each race, already has the times to conquer this filed

1 RIGAMARO 15-1 looks second best on paper

2 ISLAND BOUND 4-1 a contender here

6 OFFICERS GLORY 12-1 ran close to top pick at Keeneland

10 CROWN THE CAT 12-1 loks to run in the stretch at most levels, probably here, too

Continue reading "Oaks and Derby"