It doesn't help that everyone else was wrong, too. I can say that I didn't have Mine That Bird picked last. I had him picked second from last. If it wasn't for GodAwful stable having entrants, I surely would have picked him last.

Not only off form, but off pedigree. In fact, the top four finishers were bred for sprints much more than distance. Yet the track seemed muddy and tiring, which doesn't favor early speed.

So what does this all mean?

Obviously, the Derby was totally against form. Not only against form, but trainers like Mott, who get respect for not entering a race needlessly, ran so bad, while Woolley, a guy who brags about fights, wins. Pedigree was totally off form, too. So, this race was certainly a fluke. Why did it run this course?

Speed horses can often come from behind in sprints. One might say the cushion of the mud and the traction helped certain horses. A local Louisville paper may have hinted at some of the reason without realizing that they were giving away some secrets.

Continue reading "so why did the Derby run so far against form?"

The first thing I said Friday night was, "I better remember to save 20 bucks to get into a pick six synidcate for the sure carryover on Wednesday.

This time, like most handicappers, I'm not even concerned about handicapping. I just want to throw in my money in any available synidcate to try to get that 700,000 or so dollars up for grabs. It's the one time that the odds are theoretically on your side, but you still have to get lucky. No one wants to pick the horses, though.

And looking at Wednesday, it isn't easy. The fourth race is a maiden claimer with some first timers, that ABSOLUTELY anyone can win (okay, but not Absolutely Cindy-she's not in it). With minimum 2 dollar bets, only the wealthy will use multiple horses here. The best thing for most to do is either use all of them or just key one whose name may as well be picked by the woman in the hat who thinks that Mott is apple sauce.

Continue reading "Styx pix for Churchill May 6, 2009 races"

Form went upside down in the Derby. Four of the runners with the most sprint in their bloodlines ran first through fourth, coming mostly from behind.

As I stated before, there can be no clear cut favorite. Oddsmakers are making the filly the favorite. Not only does this defy logic, it defies Anatomy, since the females of all species, including equines develop and mature earlier than males. Therefore, while the fillies hit their peaks young, as with humans, the males are still builing up.

Mine That Bird deserves a small favorite status off the derby win, and going to a distance much better for him.

But to take anyone at less than 6-1 would be stupid, and would mean you're relying on blind luck.

Most of the classic trainers are out. Mott, McGaughey, Nafzger, Zito are all absent. Lukas has two long shots.

Continue reading "HOw well do you handicap the Preakness?"

Obviously, many of the long shots are entered because the trainers think the field is suspect. This is delusiional thinking. This is still a Grade 1 stakes, and a big one.

So who do you toss out?

I won't try to sway bettors one way or another. Instead, I'll show who stands out.

First, the Derby winner. Mine That Bird is obvious.

The second place finisher, Pioneer of the Nile is consistent, and must be used.

But the one  who stands out for the win spot had forward move at Keeneland in the Grade 1 Blue Grass of 47 2/5 seconds between the four furlong and mile mark.

He was 4th in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile.

He is bred pretty much for this distance just short of classic.

He has 8 lifetime starts, experienced, but not worn down.

His name is Terrain.

Continue reading "Who stands out in Preakness?"

We've had two fiascos so far. The Derby was unpredictable. The Preakness was an obvious jockey race, which is what you call an obvious fix, when a weak favorite is given an easy lead and practically wires a field, with the second choice running second.

The Belmont is usually the form fitting race. MINE THAT BIRD and MUSKET MAN have shown the most class, but neither are bred to go classic distances. How they did so well in the Derby can best be attributed to overconfident trainers in the other stables.

Lukas still appears to be shooting for the moon with his entrants. Rachel is improbable, since the fillie is going a mile and a half against colts, with 3 weeks more maturity on them come Belmont time, a double WHAMMY! There are trainers and jockeys who will try to let her win, but can they hold back their mounts for the full distance?

Continue reading "Belmont usually the form filling race"

Belmont's 10th race is the Grade One Met Mile, and Breeder's Cup Classic 7th place finisher, Smooth Air, will probably be a slight favorite. His moves are good for this race. The second choice could either be Ready's Echo, who ran third in last year's Belmont, Mr. Fantasy, a 3 year old who won the Withers, or My Pal Charlie, 4th in the Breeder's Cup dirt mile.

MY PAL CHARLIE may be the spot play. He lost to Accredit last time out, but ran a great race, and had some trouble. If he goes over 4-1, he'll be a great bet. To fill the superfecta, I'd use Ready's Echo, Smooth Air, Bribon, and the McGughey long shot, Imperial Council.

Arlington's 6th race sees BUZZ MY BELL, who runs much better than what is on paper.  7-2 would be an absolute steal for this one to break her maiden. She's bred to get better, and she already should win this easy. To round out the superfecta, one should look first to Sweetest Lil Star, who looks best on paper, Rena M, a solid pick, Sticky Issue, and Raspberry Jam for the second and third slots, and All for fourth.

Continue reading "Memorial Spot plays"