This weekend's column will focus on the future pool for the Derby, which is more exciting this year with the addition of exacta wagering. With 552 possible combinations (barring a scratch), the average payoff figures to be about $800 on a $2 bet.

What to look for in the first 2 pools is obviously bloodlines, and perhaps trainers. Even now, bloodlines are more important than form. The Derby is still too far away.

There are no sons of Halo. No standouts among the 23 named entrants. The best bloodlines are boasted by the 23 Win Willy, by Monarchos, although the dam's side isn't Derby spectacular.

The 22 There Goes Jojo has ample bloodlines on both sides. So does the 6 Friesan Fire. As usual, Pletcher has royally distance bred entrants.

One that intrigues for the exacta is the 13 Mr Hot Stuff, a closer in the Grade 3 Sham in California. By Tiznow, out of Sweet Damsel, he shouts out late bloomer, and may not be at his best until the Fall. Still, although I don't like his win chances, he is an obvious superfecta filler for the Derby, and maybe even an exacta filler.

Continue reading "Future book Derby watch"

This is the weekend that seperates the classes, at least until the Kentucky Derby. First, the lower class Arkansas Derby, because the competition is severely lacking against WIN WILLY. OLD FASHIONED and DANGER TO SOCIETY are credible. PAPA CLEM is possibly still Grade 2 caliber while facing other 3 year olds. The others are very unproven.

Win Willy is bred for distance. He beat Old Fashioned at a mile and a sixteenth at Oaklawn, and now faces him at one and one eighth mile. The tricky call here is that the sportswriters for the daily racing form, namely Byron King and Mary Rampellini, totally discount the chances of Win Willy. This is no small indication. Sportswriting is big business, and have much more power over the protection of the monopolies they possess. They do so with inside information that most people will never be able to get. People have always gotten tips, most of them bad. Sportswriters for major operations are too powerful to get bad tips. Byron King seems to have some inside information that Captain Cherokee will run big, despite being no threat to Win Willy or Old Fashioned before. Neither he or Mary Rampellini give Win Willy any chance.

Continue reading "Top Derby prospects in Bluegrass and Arkansas Derby"

The Bluegrass, as I said, was a put up or shut up race for Theregoesjojo, and he shut up. His dosage is 2.53, but it looks like he's showing signs of his dam's sire, Mr Prospector, inability to get distance.

General Quarters keeps plugging away. He is a cheap version of Go For Gin, who also campaigned long and hard. This is not the way to the Derby as a rule. Your horse (colt) needs to be somewhat fresh, or at least not worn down. I don't see General Quarters as being the kind of superior horse that Go For Gin was. His bloodlines are okay, but until the Bluegrass, his class was suspect. If he was a bit more lightly race, I'd give him a shot, but as it is, he is a throwout for the Derby.

Win Willy actually ran well in the Arkansas Derby. He had a great stride, and was a bit too far back. He does have distance bloodlines on the sire's side, but he does have a dosage of 5.00, well above the 4.00 cutoff that a Derby winner is almost always below, probably because his dam, City Fair, has six furlong sprint blood on her sire's side, and a mile and an eighth blood (Storm Bird) on her dam's side. I suspect he'll hang somewhat at a mile and a quarter and finish about fifth in the Kentucky Derby.

Continue reading "Who is a contender now that pretenders have shown up?"

The Derby cast is probably set, and it is unlikely to see more than one Lexington entrant going to the Derby, if that many.

SQUAREE EDDIE could be a lukewarm favorite, despite running second in the Breeder Cup Juvenile last October. He suffered an injury, and even if he runs well in this race, it is not wise to back such a runner in the following race.

Shug McGaughey is a trainer the public usually bets down. His CONSERVATIVE comes off 2 wins, a maiden and a condition allowance. His turf race, in which he ran second to Lexington entrant EL CRESPO actually saw him run a better race, with a forward move of 46 and 3/5 seconds between the two furlong and mile mark. El Crespo ran that in 47 and 3/5 seconds.

Several others get class tests. One comes out of the Grade 2 Swale, a sprint that is usually underrated. Zito's BRAVE VICTORY ran fourth, and looms a big threat here.

Continue reading "Coolmore Lexington, be brave or conservative?"

Keeneland is finished, and it was brutal for the handicappers. Too many inside tips winning. There were some good payoffs, but way too often there were very low paying favorites on winners who ran against form. These underlays are what signify shady dealings.

What makes racing crooked, ironically, is too much friendship between stables. When hot tips win, then you have a serious problem.  It makes handicapping anightmare, and turns off gamblers who actually read racing forms.

But this meet wasn't all that bad. Churchill has been much worse in the past. Now, Churchill opens with the Grade 3 Derby Trial, which used to be a mile, and like many Derby preps, has been shortened.

The obvious favorite here is GATO GO WIN, probably about 8-5. Jeff Mullins has had some success, and brings this one from a thrid place finish in the Grade 2 San Vicente, where he was close to the lead. Speed and a class drop are a very good sign. He'll take some beating.

Continue reading "Churchill opens with Gato probable Trial favorite"

Opening Day at Chrchill couldn't have gone any worse. It was indeed the usual handicapper's nightmare, with underlays (hot tips for insiders) winning most races. They not only ran much against form, but they paid very little. This is what happens when you have a notoriously disreputable track as Churchill. Short fields, most of them only 5 to 7 horses, make for dishonesty. It is too easy to put a fix in, and one souped up horse is a hot thing among the stables. These stables know each other, and not only are willing to let each other know they are ready, but also if they are not ready. Too many high prices on contenders who don't hit the board. Add to this the rock hard surface, criminally negligent, which makes most six furlong races over after two furlongs, since the order of finish is close to the same as at the two furlong mark on this hard surface, and you have no credibility. Opening day discouraged any professional handicapper from returning.

Continue reading "Derby Field throwouts pre-form"

Now a brief rundown on the recent post drawings for the Kentucky Derby

1. WESTSIDE BERNIE 30-1 is by far the most likely of Kelly Breen's to do well. He hasn't accomplished much in the way of wins, but was second in the Grade 1 Wood, which is often a pivotal race. His dosage is 1.80, and his dam's sid is represented twice by Secrtariat, so he could get better with age and distance.

2. MUSKET MAN 30-1 is trained by Derek Ryan. He won a Grade 2, but his dosage is 4.00, and Derby winners are almost always under that. Plus, the dosage still doesn't take into the account the sprint bloodlines of Mr. Prospector. He also is represented by Dixieland Band, whose offspring break down often on rock hard tracks like Chruchill. But even if it rains, this one is a toss out because of his dosage and bloodlines.

Continue reading "Kentucky Derby Post Draw rundown"

For Thursday's big crowd at Churchill, there are some spot plays.

In the third race, there are 7 entrants. It's a good time to against the struggling
Vance stable, which will eventually come back around. WILD SUNDAY shows good form at Fairgrounds, and Fairgrounds horses are kicking tail. He was claimed by an owner-trianer team of the Larues. MR ZARROW looks like a strong second. MESS NERA looks to round out the trifecta. If Wild Sunday goes over 5-2, take him to win and place. Good superfectas are 1 with 34 with All with All, then 1, 3, with 1,3, 4, with 1,3,4 2, 7, with All, and a tri box and exacta box on 1-3-4. A saver superfecta on the 1-3-4-7 box, and a 1 with the 2,3,4,5, 7 all the way down. Remember, these are 10 cent superfectas.

Race Five has MILITARY LIKE with some speed and dropping for a pretty good stable of the Pitts. At 7-2 or over, she's worth a win-place, and show in an eight horse field. Superfectas should be a box on 2-4-5-6, and also a wheel the 4 with the 2,5, 6 with the 2, 5, 6, with All, then a 2,4 with a 2,4, with All with All. Follow with a tri box on 2-4-5 and an exacta box on 2-4-5-6.

Continue reading "Spot plays for Churchill Thursday 4-30-2009"

Thursday saw some horrendous rides on some who should have won and paid well. Undeniably the case for Flying Jazz and Cover Story, both rated way too far back for Churchill. Still, those who took my advice still won with the ninth race trifecta and superfecta paying well, with AEGEAN winning. The final race, which I said to take an overlay and hope it wouldn't be a jockey race, wasn't a good betting race. It turned into a jockey race, with the five lowest price horses finishing first through fifth. That's overkill, and being obvious with the cheating. But it happens.

Friday, Oaks Day, there is a great spot play in the fifth race, with REYNALDOTHEWIZARD having a great forward move as a 2 year old that would ensure a victory here at three. Good ones to link him with in exotic wagers are the probable favorite, Munnings, as well as CUSTOM FOR CARLOS, Zito's JUST BEN, BROTHER KEITH, and STAMP.

Continue reading "Oaks Day spot plays"

Fill out how you think the Kentucky Derby will finish, in order. Here are the rules

All entriest must be received by Saturday, April 2, by 9:00 A.M., with no edits after that time, in order to qualify.

Scratches will merely be eliminated from your order of finish. Don't worry about them.

You may make comments about your selections. You don't have to.

Each placement will receive positive or negative points, or break even, if the horse you select for that placement is exactly 7 positions away.

For each placement in which you are exactly correct, you will get 40 points. If the horse in that placement is off by one position, you get 30 points. By two positions, you get 25 points, for three positions, you get 20 points, by four positions, you get 15 points, by five positions you get 10 points, by six positions, you get 5 points, by seven positions a push or break even 0 points, by eight positions -5 points, by nine positions -10 points, by ten positions -15 points, by eleven positions -20 points, by eleven positions -25 points, by 12 positions -30 points, and more than 12 positions is -40 points. For example, if Dunkirk finishes fifth, and you have him selected for second, that is three positions away, and you get 20 points. If Dunkirk finishes ninth, and you have him second, Dunkirk nets you zero points.

Continue reading "Predict the order of finish for the 2009 Kentucky Derby"