Those who have tickets on Number 11 in the first Derby Future Pool are throwing them away already. Midshipman will not run. His injury isn't life threatening, or even career threatening. He may come back in the Fall.

I last posted on how modern trainers; led by the minds of more anonymous but great trainers such as John McCord, but also by some of the more famous ones, such as Nafzger, Zito, McGaughey, and Mott; don't push their horses too much. Now, Midshipman wasn't pushed as hard as some, but he did start racing in August, and ran hard in 4 races in just over a 2 month span, including 2 Grade 1 wins, notably the big one in November.

So many injuries can happen. When I was a horseman, it wasn't unusual for a spirited horse to hurt his foot just kicking the stall. The grueling campaign of just 4 races may not seem like much, but when you're talking about 4 hard races for a 2 year old, including 2 Grade 1 wins, that just takes a lot.

Continue reading "Midshipman beached"

Sports fans eagerly await the Kentucky Derby. And 4 preps are this weekend. So we can post our pix.

As far as being Derby prepes, these 1 1/16 mile events will hide the best Derby contenders behind sprint winners. Derby horses to watch for will be more like Free Country than Friesan Fire.

So you think you can handicap? How about a real test on these 4 Derby prep races?

Post the program number, name of horse, and any comments:

REBEL at Oaklawn-Big Favorite is Old Fashioned, who'll be more like 2-5 than the realistic odds I'm posting: I'll try to beat him.
9. WIN WILLY 15-1-Has the best bloodlines in the race for derby distance, but this is only 1 1/16, but I would pick him over the favorite in a heartbeat if the race was longer.

1. OLD FASHIONED 6-5 Super classy.

Continue reading "Post your pix for this weekend's races-Rebel, San Felipe, Louisiana, and Tampa Bay"

This weekend, the Kentucky Derby preps are in Florence, Ky, next to Cincinnati, with the minor Rushaway and the major Grade 2 Lanes End, which veterans still call the Jim Beam Stakes, since the old sponsor is easier to remember than the new name. Both races look like insider picks. A lot of runners who come off short layoffs, and could run big, or could be brought around slowly. Unless you're an insider, and know you can trust your sources, you need to avoid anything smaller than 9-2 in either race. The Rushaway favorite should be SUMMER EMPIRE, who showed a bit of class in restricted races in Illinois as a 2 year old. His forward moves from last year puts him near the top, and any improvement gives him the win. On the down side, he already has 7 lifetime starts, and began in April of his two year old year. Too soon to race and stay healthy as a 3 year old. On the bright side, he has been working at Keeneland, where trainers stock only the best horses. FITZALSEW could easily go wire to wire. CLIFFYS'S FUTURE has some good moves. ZIEGFELD looks competitive off a maiden win, and should be in the superfecta fairly easy. NINTH CLIENT is the class of the race, but has 8 lifeftime starts already. TOCCET ROCKET also raced a lot, but pretty much rounds out the top contenders. NO INFLATION and SUNDAYS BABY GRAND-either one would have to run the race of his life to get in the money.

Continue reading "Will Mott Hold Me Back?"

The Florida Derby is considered one of the most important preps for the Kentucky Derby. This year, there is no clear cut favorite. It's no stretch to say the field "appears" lackluster, with only one entry sporting over 2 wins, and he has only 3 wins. There's even a maiden in the field, who has never been first, second, or third.

But this is usually what marks a pretty good field. These are up and comers, not broken down horses with a lot of races. Finishing first. second, maybe even third or fourth, will mark you as a contender.

THEREGOESJOJO is one I touted in the Fountain of Youth, and he finished second at odds of 9-2, which isn't a long shot by any definition, but he wasn't favored either. He has the bloodlines to go longer. However, most entries in this race are well bred for distance.

Continue reading "Jojo goes for the Coal Man"