NFL 2010 TO THE 2011 SPER BOWL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST

August 24, 2010

Johnny Matheis

NFL 2010 TO THE 2011 SPER BOWL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST

Genreally, horse racing fans make good NFL fans. Not only because NFL fantasy involves Math, which is the horse racing fan's forte, but also because both involve conditioning.

A look at 2010 NFL, and what looks to happen. I'll give some predictions, but fans know that close games, injuries, blown coverages, and psycological brekdowns occur any time.

AFC EAST:

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 11-5. A lot of people think this is Brady and Moss, but New England has always been based on a "full team" concept, with lots of depth. A team like this can survive injuries, and figures to play well at the season's end. They can run and pass. The defense is adequate.

NEW YORK JETS 10-6 Needs to retain their defensive dominance. They're strong at linebacker, up front, and the backfield. They were first in pass defense last year in yards allowed, and first in first downs allowed. There's no reason to think they still can't dominate. On offense, they wer first in rushing yards, which compliments a super defense quite well. The passing game is less than what they want. Braylon Edwards is there chiefly to make opposing defenses back off the line of scrimmage. He doesn't inspire a lot of fear. It's up to a good offensive line to keep it going, and they will at first, but it isn't a deep line. Offensive linemen go down too often, and this team can't afford that. Still, a power team in the NFL.

MIAMI DOLPHINS 9-7 were 4th in rushing yards last year out of the 32 teams. Their offensive line is young, deep, and in their prime. They usually run the wildcat. This is a stellar running team, and 6'4" Brandon Marshall is there to ensure defenses respect the pass. On defense, they were more mediocre, but were 15th in first downs allowed, which is in the top half. Their first two draft choices were a defensive lineman and linebacker. They have a 3-4, with the defensive linemen producing, but linebackers suspect. Lots of close games predicted, so they could go 12-4 as easy as 6-10. 9-7 is about right.

BUFFALO BILLS 7-9 would be contenders in some divisions. Last year, their weakness was in passing on offense, and rushing on defense. However, they have a great pass defense, and that always keeps you in the game. It is also something that can go down quick with one blown coverage or false step. Two of their top three draft picks were on the defensive line, so look for that to be strong this year. They also run a 3-4, with a strong and deep linebacking corps. This team could surprise, but in this division, they still have to surprise.

AFC NORTH:

BALTIMORE RAVENS 14-2 Last year, I touted them, knowing that all that remained for them to be dominant was to get Flacco to hook up with Heap more often., They did this. They have an outstanding run offense, one of the best and deepest offensive lines, and a productive passing game to go along with a stellar defense. There just isn't any weakness here. Boldin will help spread opposing defenses. This is a powerhouse.

CINCINNATI BENGALS 10-6 quietly get it done. The offense is pretty good, but Carson Palmer needs to spread the field more than last year. Enter first round draft pick Tight End Jermain Gresham. This may help to get Ochocinco more open, and to make the running game more open. This team lives on its young, great defense. Last year, they were 7th in rushing yards allowed, 6th in passing yards allowed, and 5th in first downs allowed. They would probably win in all but two other divisions. In this division, making the wild card is tough.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS 9-7 have a great running game and offensive line, and a super defense. The quarterback position is now in trouble. Big Ben will miss at least 4 games, but that means they should peak later in the season, which is good. This is too tough a division for anything to go wrong, though.

CLEELAND BROWNS 1-15 established a run last year, but that was more from good coaching taking advantage of what was there. This team has nothing, and scrapes to get by. They compete for the worst defense in the NFL. They were the worst defense last year in allowing first downs. Working with a 3-4, they are weak at linebacker. Only good coaching will win a single game for them

AFC SOUTH:

HOUSTON TEXANS 11-5 have been a Jekyll and Hyde team with their young potential stars. Consistent, though, is Andre Johnson, the top receiver in the NFL. Last year, it looked like the offensive line simply pass protected. This year, look for them to work on their run blocking muscles again. The defense has lots of potential, and would play great, and get burned at times. But these young guys keep getting better. Watch out, Indy.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 11-5 Petyon has plenty to throw to, now that Gonzalez is healthy. Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne are stars. They lack running power, and the offensive line isn't very deep, but Addai comes out of the backfield for short passes often, so they have a few dimensions. The defense is best described as adequate, with a good linebacking group, but not a deep one.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 10-6 try to get 6-5 linemen for diminutive Drew to hide behind. Those extra couple of steps mean massive gains. Their best linemen are about 6'2", and tall enough to give Drew some edge. The passing game is underrated. The offensive line is deep, but getting old. On defense, they picked up defensive linemen on their first 4 picks. They mean to establish a powerful force identity on defense. Thgey have to be happy with their linebackers, an awesome group, all the starters of whom recorded at least 98 tackles last year. There is depth here, too. This team will live on defense now.

TENNESSEE TITANS 4-12 looked good in preseason. They were second in rushing yards last season, and have high hopes to do better, but those aren't realistic hopes. The offensive line isn't deep enough. Vince Young caught opponents by surprise last year, but has to prove it wasn't a fluke. And on defense, they are severely lacking, second from last in passing yards allowed last year. This is a team that knows how to disappoint fans, and is hitting the bottom this year.

AFC WEST:

OAKLAND RAIDERS 8-8 show signs of good play here and there last year, and normal growing pains. They don't excel any where, but don't look poor any where, either. Last year, they lacked a passing game, but Campbell is the sort of veteran who can step right in and at least make defenses respect the pass. They struggled defensively last year, but that was because their 3 and out offense kept them on the field the entire game. Their top drft choice, the eight overall pick, Rolando McClain is expected to be a mainstay at linebacker. The defensive backs are set, and the front line has some punch. This team could again have growing pains, and could either do great or poor. The truth is somewhere in between, but they find themselves in one of the NFL's weakest, though most overrated, divisions.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 7-9 have been the NFL's undeniably most overrated team the last 3 years. People actually raved over them last year, with their rushing offense 31st, one off of being last in rushing yards, their defense 20th against rushing yards allowed, 21st in first downs allowed. Couple with a good pass offense and defense, this made them mediocre at best, but analysts kept picking tham as a stellar team for some unknown reason. Gates is their money man, but he's in his twilight years, and has been hammered. The offensive line is still pretty young and deep, and may be the only bright spot on this team.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 7-9 have depth on the offensive line, but they are getting old. They ran well last year, and Cassell didn't embarrass himself for his first year with these teammates. He'll connect a lot this year, and Bowe and McCluster figure to have pretty good years. The defense was one of the NFL's worst last year, but they are strong at linebacker in their 3-4 alignment. Vrabel is the veteran, and it looks like a good fit. Improvement is expected everywhere.

DENVER BRONCOS 4-12 have a lot of bodies now for the offensive line, though few starters from last year.They picked up three offensive linemen in the first 6 rounds of the draft. Adequate in the run, they may have defenses playing the run more since they lost their big receiver. On defense, they are vulnerable. Using the 3-4, they are weak at linebacker, but fairly deep. They were at best mediocre on defense last year, and there's no reason to expect better this year.

NFC EAST:

DALLAS COWBOYS 11-5 find themselves a good team in the most overrated division in the NFL. This division is weak. The Cowboy offensive line is getting very old now, but is still deep enough to be okay. Romo has tons of great targets to throw to. Offense is no problem. Their defense was good last year. 9th against allowing first downs. They use a 3-4, and second round pick Sean Lee adds depth to a linebacking corps with two middle linebackers with over 100 tackles apiece. The defensive line isn't that deep, and neither is the backfield. They'll get burned in the nickel packages, and can't afford any injuries on defense. Still, they'll take this weak division.

PHILADELPHIS EAGLES 6-10 were mediocre on offense last year, and look the same way this year, at best. They build their identity on defense, but their starting linebackers this year total fewer than 100 tackles between them. This is an overrated group right now.

NEW YORK GIANTS 5-11 were mediocre on offense and defense last year. Their offensive line is over the hill and doomed. The receivers are adequate, but no real terrors. On defense, a fourth round draft pick rookie will start at linebacker. New faces abound. This defense will have to prove itself. However, the Giants want to dominate on defense, and used the first two draft picks for defensive linemen.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS 5-11. They're not deep on the offensive line, but addressed that problem in the draft with their first pick. They won't scare defenes with their receivers. This team lives by defnse, but their main main, Haynesworth, may be over the hill, as witnessed by all the teams that have given up on him. They still have a great pass defense, an thier overall defense will win a few games for them.

NFC NORTH:

GREEN BAY PACKERS 13-3 Long story short, they were in the top half in every offensive and defensvie category last season. This team has no weakness, they have a deep, young, offensive line in their prime, a well tuned passing attack with lots of outlets, and a stellar defense. You really have to nitpick to find a weakness here.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS 11-5 will have to rely on Jackson or Rosenfals sooner or later. First, the team played very good on offense last year, and it was Favre who was brilliant. He spread the defenses, finding more receivers for 3 or more passes than any other NFL qb. The offensive line's failure to run block is distressing, and they have to prove themselves again. The defense was very good, and 2nd against opposing teams getting first downs. The defensive front is extremely good. Leber tailed off a bit at linebacker, He is usually one who has a nose for the ball, so watch how he does. The defensive backfield is deep and capable. There is a problem, however, with mind set. It is a losing mind set that begs a player to stay. This is still an excellent team, however.

CHICAGO BEARS 7-9 struggled in everything but pass defense last year, but that's a good area to start to build from. The passing game shows promise. They look like they can move the ball quite often. This is not a good offensive line, however, and not in thier prime. Uhrlacher is back on defense, and that's where the Bears put their identity, on defense.

DETROIT LIONS 3-13 flail along. They have missed their chance, as the offensive line is no longer in their prime. They had the worst pass defense in the NFL last year. This team has nothing to be excited about.

NFC SOUTH:

TAMPA BAY BUCS 11-5: had injuries and other problems in last year's rebuilding season, but still weren't embarrassed. They were the wrost team against the rush, but they've addressed that problem, getting two defensive linement in the first two rounds of the draft. Gerald McCoy ws the third overall pick. Each of the starting linebackers got at least 84 tackles. They're deep in the backfield. This will be one of the best defenses in the NFL this season. On offense, they have five quality offensive linemen in their prime. Depth is unproven, and when injuries start happening, they could be in trouble. The passing game doesn't frighten anyone, but Freeman has been working with this group for a while now.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 11-5 still have offensive dominance, a deep, young, offensive line, and a great passing attack. Defense is where they struggle. The defense is built for a top offense, and works more like a quality prevent defense. They were 20th in allowing first downs last year. They got a lot of favorable calls last year, and if that continues, they'l be hard to stop.

ATLANTA FALCONS 9-7 were a pretty average team last season, with run defense as their specialty. Their offensive line is good and deep. Matt Ryan is as underrated this year as he was overrated last year. The truth is somewhere in between. Jenkins has long been a disappointment, but White is a top WR. Gonzalez was a great pick up last year. On defense, their 3 starting linebackers combined for 302 tackles last year, pretty good. They add first round draft pick rookie Sean Witherspoon to further bolster the unit. People have good reason to expect better things from the Falcons this year.

CAROLINA PANTHERS 4-12 find themselves the spiraling team in a good division. They have two top running backs and a good, young offensive line. The trouble is, they pander too much to WR Steve Smith. He picked a fight with a teammate two years ago, and the next year, the Panthers let the teammate go. They are sending the message that they mean to spoil this underachiever. They have few other options to throw to, and defenses will be able to load up against the run. This team cannot spread the field. On defense, they are a good pass defense, but suspect against the run. That doesn't figure to improve. They're weak up front and at linebacker. This team gets burned all over the place, especially in this division.

NFC WEST:

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 15-1 struggled on offense last year, but had a dominant defense. This year, ingletary is going with ball control, taking 2 offensive linement in the first round of the draft. This young, deep offensive line will ensure Gore some yards. The passing game is unproven, but they've been working together and tuning up the pass. Defense is dominant and deep, with no weak spots. This is a dominant team, and the best in the NFL. They may not win the Super Bowl, but by season's end, they'll be the favorites, and could be unbeaten easily.

ARIZONA CARDINALS 7-9 have a deep offensive line, though up in years. Leinert will be okay. Offense will be okay, even with Warner's loss. The agin line is the major concern. Mediocre offense. Defense is the major concern. Already mediocre, they have a 3-4 defense, but the 4 linebackers combined for only 219 tackles, about the same amount as two decent middle linebackers. They aren't deep, and the front line is not productive. This is not a good defense.

ST LOUIS RAMS 3-13 can't spread the field. Steve Jackson gets yards only because opposing defenses let him take small stuff while they have 3 touchdown leads. They're more worried about Avery, the only proven receiver. The Rams flail evreywhere, and nothing is expected of the rookie, so they may get a few emotional wins. The only bright spots are depth on the defensive line and backfield, and Avery.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 2-14 were mediocre or less in all areas last year. They pick up a first round pick to help bolster a young offensive line. On defense, they have little to hope for. Their starting 3 linebackers accounted for only 139 tackles last year. This is easily the worst defense in the NFL

PLAYOFFS:

PLAYOFF TEAMS:

NEW ENGLAND

BALTIMORE

CINCINNATI

HOUSTON

INDIANAPOLIS (WC)

OAKLAND

DALLAS

GREEN BAY

MINNESOTA (WC)

TAMPA BAY