How to Ice a Belmont box

I've been crowing about Zito's ICE BOX since well before the derby, and he landed second in that race at 11-1, which actually made him one of the lower prices in a strange derby with an 8-1 favorite.

Now, he's likely to be the Belmont favorite, and justly so, but with near favorites winning both the earlier races of the triple crown, one would expect a long shot to finally emerge. The second choice has won both races. Not exactly chalk, but certainly the second lowest price possible.

Still, Zito is a pro. He isn't likely to enter either of his colts at less than 100%, and certainly won't run a hurt colt.

Figuring on 10 cent superfectas, one can still find value.

06/05/2010 11th Race BELMONT, 1 1/2 MILE GRADE 1 BELMONT:

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH:

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

6 ICE BOX 3-1 is the one to beat. He is class. He has thrown in a few clunkers, but that looks to be behind him.

9 STATELY VICTOR 6-1 is the obvious challenger. His Derby run wasn't pathetic, and showed the Blue Grass win wasn't a total fluke. He appears to be the other class in the race.

3 UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN 15-1 hasn't gone beyond 1 1/16 mile, but he comes off a closing third in a Grade 2 at the top track, Keeneland, and Kiaran McLaughlin is fast becoming a new McGaughey, Zito, and Nafzger. He can't be dismissed, and does sport a good forward move. Worth a win bet at long odds.

4 MAKE MUSIC FOR ME 6-1 had a form reversal to run fourth in the big race. His Blue Grass race wasn't all bad. The Blue Grass is always a star studded field.

5 FLY DOWN 4-1 is Zito's sneak in, a Grade 2 winner already at Belmont, but looks like a severe underlay, and doesn't have the forward move of others here. He would need improvement, but Zito is a man who can do that.

1 DAVE IN DIXE 30-1 should be used by those who bet him at 7-2 and 6-1 in his last two losses, since he'll offer value. He looks to run an even race, and could be a wise guy's key for fourth in a superfecta.

12 INTERACTIF 20-1 would need a little improvement, but a board finish is certainly legitimate. He was 4th in the Blue Grass, and that looks more and more like a key race.

10 STAY PUT 30-1 appears overmatched, but is more of a mid packer with his come from behind style, and could break into the superfecta. 

7 DROSSELMEYER 6-1 would do well to hit the board, and looks to be an underlay again. Mott has to prove he can stop regressing. 

11 FIRST DUDE 15-1 seems to have run his best races and come up short. He looks like a severe underlay. He got a great ride in the Preakness, and still didn't win in the usual weaker than Grade 1 Preakness field.

2 STAR SPANGLED 30-1 looks overmatched, and is bred for sprints. He figures to hang in the stretch.

8 GAME ON DUDE 30-1 is outclassed, and would get no attention if not for Baffert.

BEST BETS: Triple the bet on WPS 6:Single bet on WS 9 WS 3: Exacta Box 3-6-9: Trifecta box 3-6-9, Trifecta Wheel 6 with 3,4,9 with 3,4,9: Superfecta Box 3-4-6-9, Wheel 6 with 3,9 with 3,4,9 with All, Wheel 6 with 3,9 with All with All: Wheel 3,6,9 with 3,6,9 with 1,3,4,5,6,9 with 1,3,4,5,6,9, and Wheel 6,9 with 6,9 with 1,3,4,5 with 1,3,4,5,10,12.