Form filled Derby day

I feel guilty again. I didn't have time to handicap, work, and post Friday night, but the races at Churchill on Derby Day were uncommonly form fitting.

In fact, I have no complaints. I even bet a small pick 6, using only eight combinations, using only singles and at most two horses in a race, and still got 3 winners and three seconds. I figured I would easily have had the five win consolation if I just went ahead and bet 20 combinations for 40 bucks.

Naturally, I skipped the first race, which had such a short field that only people following certain horses or trainers could possibly bet it without being called amateurs. I really loved SPICER, who ran third in the second race, thinking he'd be a good one, but he is falling short. I'm sure it is no fault of Nafzger, though, as he's doing everything he can. I still expect this one to be a stakes runner some day. Still, there were only two obvious competitors, and they ran first and second, so the tri box was a "gimme" and paid very well.

From the third race to the eleventh (the Derby) my number one picks all ran first or second, and all paid double digits when they won, though none were 9-1 or more for 20.00 or more. Had the winners of five races, including GENERAL QUARTERS, who looked like an absolute stickout. That's why the pros fire on Derby day. These 5 winners would've all been under 5-1 on regular days, but we love to bet against the amateurs. It's our best chance to make a profit.

I'm sorry I didn't post my picks.

I did post Derby picks that weren't perfect. My top pick did run second, so if you were smart enough just to bet ICE BOX across the board, you did okay. And if you turned around my top contenders, since I had SUPER SAVER on the bottom of the trifectas and superfectas, if you followed the "hot tip" and the "crowd", using my top pick second, and my fourth pick PADDY O PRADO third, you'd be very very happy.

I really couldn't use SUPER SAVER, because he was the biggest underlay since SEA HERO. Both were well bred hot tips who really hadn't done much before the Derby. In fact, SEA HERO was the least accomplished Derby winner aside from last year, in the past 50 years at least. I'm just surprised the backside people didn't tout him to the sportswriters, since the Daily Racing Form and others weren't on this bandwagon. And I'm glad. The backside has finally stopped kowtowing to the power of the press, at least for the Derby. As I said before, when powers get along too well, the public suffers. So I'm happy for the winner, even if it was the amateurs who had him. At lest most of the sports writers didn't. I probably would've used him if he wasn't an underlay, but even without seeing the odds, I knew #4 was near favorite, because I worked the simulcast at Turfway this year, and I'm not kidding when I say that 75% of the bettors at my window bet #4 in the Derby on Oaks Day, and also on Derby Day. That's a phenom.

But who could bet a lot of superfectas with Churchill management viciously doing away with the best idea of the 21st century, the ten cent superfecta?

Which is another point. People in power do nothing but lie. You'll hear these vicious people rave against the ten cent superfecta and say it isn't cost efficient for the tracks, because they take too long to bet. FALSE! The ten cent superfectas usually are bet in boxes and wheels, maybe 2.40, maybe 12.00, maybe .60 on rare occassions, maybe 120.00 on rare occassions, but they take absolutely no time on any of the machines, Am Tote or United Tote. They are the easiest bets to pound out, because they are minimums and because they are simple.

What takes a long time, holds up lines, and isn't cost efficient are not these, and are not the "first time bettors", who are actually easy to serve, and take little time.

What takes the most time are the arrogant bettors, the ones who bet big money on a race, who will bet down their own odds, the fool who bets a $100 trifecta, which even on a stakes day is going to bet down the trifecta pool odds considerably. They'll change amounts and bets, and not only do they take a long time for this, but these are the same bettors who refuse to make bets properly. Clerks have to push in the amount first, then the type of bet, and can't put down the numbers of the horses until after that. These arrogant bettors will name the numbers first, which means after he names his bet, the clerk has to erase everything. Sure, the clerk can try to remember the numbers, but this is where mistakes come in, because people are shouting numbers all over the place, all the time, so the clerk must still get the customer to repeat the numbers to make sure. It is far better to be sure than to issue an incorrect ticket. Some of these arrogant bettors will even go through all this, and then say it is for a different track than the local one, which is the VERY FIRST thing they must say if they aren't betting the local track, and then the clerk has to erase everything all over again and start from scratch. There is no information on the computer to go from. It is gone. These guys bet nearly every day, but refuse to conform to the pattern that is efficient. Just plain arrogance. They do it close to post time just to antagonize others behind them, so I feel no sypathy for them when they complain about first time bettors asking simple questions, or about people with only a dollar trying to make some ten cent bets. The dollar bettors simply don't take that much time. They are still quick bets. And as I said before, the arrogant bettor who bets a $100 trifecta is not a pro. Neither is the guy who bets $100 to win at post time. These guys bet down their own payoffs, and are morons. They are amateurs who rely on sheer dumb luck. It is hard to sypathize with them.

I do sympathize with the two dollar bettor. I sympathize with the bettor who is having a tough time. I sympathize with newcomers. I sympathize with bettors who place small strategic bets at post time. I sympathize with the nervous guys who know what they're doing, and make elborate wheels in a race. My goal is for these people to be successful and win money, not just for the occassional tips by the classy ones, but because I like to sell winners, and because I like to cash them out, because clerks do NOT want to count all that money at the end of the day. We WANT you to win money, and to cash out, and to let us end the day with cash boxes nearly empty. So PLEASE bet winners!

And if you have a bad day and don't bet winners, don't let it get you down. The overlays will eventually appear.

I'll talk more about the Derby later. I thought it was a great day and a great race. It will take some more thought, though. I thought ICE BOX would be a great horse, but he did this off a fresh long rest, and will only have two weeks rest till the Preakness. Still, I think this was Zito's goal, to rest him for the Triple Crown. And unlike BARBARO and others, he got to race over a surface with more cushion, since the rain soaked in and made it more mud than slop I believe. SIDNEY'S CANDY was the only disappointment, but we knew there'd be a few of those. I'm glad there was only one.