Oaks and Derby

When you work at Keeneland, it doesn't seem like it takes long til Derby arrives.

First, the Oaks day. I'm not keen on Oaks-Derby Doubles. Doubles and pick Threes are for those who rely on dumb luck. Since one juiced up hot tip can beat you out of any win, it involves more luck for pick threes and doubles, and more handicapping for trifectas and superfectas.

FRIDAY 04/30/2010

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

CHURCHILL RACE 2: MDN 1 MILE

4 KAREN ANN 3-1 Bred to improve each race, already has the times to conquer this filed

1 RIGAMARO 15-1 looks second best on paper

2 ISLAND BOUND 4-1 a contender here

6 OFFICERS GLORY 12-1 ran close to top pick at Keeneland

10 CROWN THE CAT 12-1 loks to run in the stretch at most levels, probably here, too

9 SHIRLEY SHE CAN 12-1 Zito the only asset as this one doesn't have good moves yet

5 RENDITION 15-1 Ran decent against lesser

3 ENGLISH GIRL 15-1 4 year old has good on the board percentage

7 AZURITE 15-1 Second on a fast strip

8 UP AND AWAY 15-1 probably wants cheaper

11 SMARTY'S DREAM 15-1 stable struggling overall despite decent Chruchill record

BEST BETS: WPS 4: Trifectas Box 1-2-4-6: Superfectas Box 1-2-4-6, wheel 4 with 1-2-6-10 with 1-2-6-10 with All: Wheel 1-4 with 1-2-4-6-9-10 with 1-2-4-6-9-10 with 1-2-4-6-9-10

CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 5: CLM TURF 1 MILE

12 ABSOLUTELY CINDY 12-1 is always dangerous, and looks to sweep these

4 FOREST TRAIL 6-1 has sub par times, but Shug always dangerous 

9 GRAND ANNEE 6-1 Stable regresses a lot, but this one takes it on her best

10 DEPUTY DARLING 15-1 is consistent and untried on a fast track. Can't toss out

11 DANZON 9-2 owns 7 wins, and is tough

8 REINTERVAL 4-1 Class of the race

7 KISS MINE 20-1 competes with her best effort, and Vance probably has her fit 

1 COULEE 20-1 has 9 lifetime wins, and is hard to toss out

5 FLAMING SLEW 20-1 early speed, but figures to fade in stretch

2 SUSIE'S GAL 20-1 should be near the lead till the stretch

3 MISSIT 10-1 has some back class, but still looks overmatched

6 WAR TIGRESS 20-1 in fresh, but appears overmatched

BEST BETS WPS 12: PS 4: Trifecta box 4-9-10-12: Superfecta box 4-9-10-12, Wheel 4-12 with 4-12 with 7-8-9-10-11 with 1-7-8-9-10-11, Wheel 12 with 4-8-9-10-11 with 4-8-9-10-11 with 4-8-9-10-11

CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 9 GRADE 3 1 1/16 MILE

1 CHOCOLATE CANDY 6-1 has class, and is worth a shot off the bench

3 MACHO AGAIN 2-1 deserving favorite the one to beat, class of the race

7 ARSON SQUAD 8-1 is a contender

6 BULLSBAY 8-1 is a contender

5 PROM SHOES 20-1 has some good form and could be an overlay

4 COOL COAL MAN 8-1 is a cut below, but Zito can't be ignored

2 FRIESAN FIRE 12-1 has had his chances and failed

9 ENRICHED 20-1 looks outclassed

8 FLYING PRIVATE 15-1 is outclassed

BEST BETS WPS on 1 and 3: Exacta Box 1-3: Trifecta Box 1-3-7: Wheel 1 with 3-5-6-7 with 3-5-6-7: Superfectas Wheel 1-3 with 1-3 with 4-5-6-7 with 4-5-6-7, Wheel 1-3 with 1-3-6-7 with 1-3-5-6-7 with 1-3-5-6-7

CHURCHILL RACE 11 GRADE 1 KENTUCKY OAKS 1 1/8 MILE

1 IT'S TEA TIME 6-1 was 2nd to Jewel, but ran a better race

11 EVENING JEWEL 6-1 won at Keeneland, where the best are

7 CRISP 7-2 is a contender

10 CHAMPAGNE D'ORO 15-1 looks the best of the speed

3 QUIET TEMPER 15-1 has speed to go a long way

4 AGE OF HUMOR 30-1 is up and coming, but must prove herself

5 BLIND LUCK 6-1 has some good times

8 TIDAL POOL 15-1 is a cut below top picks

6 BEAUTICIAN 30-1 isn't in great form  

13 AMEN HALLELUJAH 15-1

14 JOANI'S CATCH 30-1 is outgunned

12 AILALEA 15-1 is outclassed

9 BELLA DIAMONTE 30-1 doesn't fit here

2 JODY SLEW 30-1 looks overmatched

BEST BETS WPS 1: PS 10 and 11: Trifeta box 1-7-10-11: Superfectas Box 1-7-10-11: Wheel 1 with 7-10-11 with 3-4-5-7-10-11 with 3-4-5-7-10-11: Wheel 1-11 with 1-11 with 3-4-7 with All.

 OAKS DERBY DOUBLES Wheel 1-7-10-11 with 2-18-20, and Wheel 1 with 2-6-10-14-18-20

SATURDAY CHURCHILL 05/01/2010 KENTUCKY DERBY

I'll give an analysis instead of projected order of finish. Two entrants look to be what seem to be the future "best" horses. ICE BOX won the Grade 1 Florida Derby in great fashion, and looks like he came around to be a super horse. SIDNEY'S CANDY is bred to like a softer surface than Chruchill, but is the obvious class. BACKTALK is a live long shot, running 3rd in the underrated Illinois Derby, and I don't think Amoss would enter this race without his horse being 100%. Same for Dale Romans with PADDY O'PRADO, 2nd in the Grade 1 Blue Grass, which is always tough. This also means STATELY VICTOR must be considered, although he may want to show that one great race wasn't a fluke. Going against him is that it was a lifetime effort and the three week rest may not quite be enough.MISSION IMPAZIBLE is Pletcher's best chance, and looks like he can compete here.,SUPER SAVER is Pletcher's second bes chance. LINE OF DAVID was one I picked to win the Arkansas Derby, but I'd like to have seen a better move from him.

BEST BESTS WPS 2, 18, and 20: Trifecta box 2-10-18-20: Superfecta Box 2-10-18-20, Wheel 2 with 20 with 1-4-5-6-710-14-18 with All, Wheel 2-18-20 with 2-18-20 with 2-6-7-10-14-18-20 with 2-6-7-10=14-18-29, and Wheel 2-20 with 2-6-10-14-18-20 with 2-6-10-14-18-20 with 2-6-10-14-18-20