Spot plays Thursday 04/29/2010

Just a brief note today on the Derby field. Today I'll focus on bloodlines.

We see a lot of good cross breeding, with little duplication as far as 5 generations back, and peole are thinking of new classifications for chef-de-races.

The filly, DEVIL MAY CARE is generously granted a dosage of 2.53, but is the most speed oriented runner in the race, with Mr Prospector listed twice. As a female in the animal kingdom, she does develop at a younger age than males, so figure them to still be growing. The Derby is usually a filly's best chance. Still, she is up against it, and is a toss out on bloodlines and on being a filly.

DEAN'S KITTEN is granted a 1.15 dosage, and I like some of his pedigree, usually following NASKRA AND LENJOLEUR, but it is hard to see this pedigree being classic distance overall, and he has had a tough campaign. I'd be reluctant to use him in exotic wagers, too, based on this.

I already said SIDNEY'S CANDY would be great on turf or a muddy, deep surface with cushion, but would relegate him to the bottom of trifectas on a hard surface

HOMEBOY KRIS dosage 3.67 is on the bubble, and really has too much speed in his background. FUSAICHI PEGASUS was one of the worst bred Derby winners ever, and gives suspicions of genetic engineering. I'm not making Kris a toss out, but I'm definitely thinking about it even before seeing his form and works.

MAKE MUSIC FOR ME dosage 3.31 is also given a generous dosage for his six furlong bloodlines. He's probabaly a toss out as well.

But you want to know about Thursday's races.

SPOT PLAYS: 04/29/2010 THURSDAY

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

FIRST RACE CALDER: MDN CLM 6 FURLONGS

4 NOONTIME DIVE 2-1 is obviously the one to beat, and worth wheeling in the double

5 MARSELLA DELIGHT 6-1 is a well bred first timer in a maiden claimer, so the connections are being realistic, a good sing.

6 PHARMTRIP 6-1 is about even with Melody, but doesn't come off as hard a surface 

1 GORGEOUS MELODY 4-1  comes off a hard surface, but has good form

8 CRUZ MISSILE 6-1 has an outside shot

2 PRECIOUS LADY 8-1 looks a cut below the top rung

9 SPECIAL BEAUTY 8-1 is a second timer in a stable that does well with second time starters.

3 HEIRESS 8-1 showed speed on turf, and has an outside shot

7 ABUELITA 20-1 is a struggling runner in a struggling stable.

BEST BETS WPS 4: Superfecta 4 with 1,5,6 with 1,5,6,8 with All: 4-5 with 4-5 with 1-6-8 with All: Box 1-4-5-6

5TH CALDER: CLM 1 MILE

6 OURFLICKERINGSTAR 9-5 has Tampa times to take this

7 STORM AND BEERS 6-1 looks to rival Lisa for exacta

2 ANGELA LISA 2-1 is very well matched with Beers

1 FOR CAROLE 4-1 dangerous on her best race

3 INSTEAD'A 15-1 will try to go near the lead, but stamina a question

8 MY MOM'S IMAGE 15-1 is another who can crash trifecta

5 BOBBIESQUEEN 15-1 looks overmatched

4 CUTIE KITTY 15-1 looks terrible now

BEST BETS WPS 6: Superfectas Box 1-2-6-7: Wheel 6 with 2-7 with 1-2-3-7-8 with 1-2-3-7-8: Wheel 6 with 1-2-7 with 1-2-7 with All

FIRST RACE ARLINGTON PARK MDN CLM 6 1/2 FURLONGS

4 BIRD ISLAND 7-5 with Nafzger in control

6 WEBSTER 4-1 is bred to improve and has decent form

5 CLASS READY 2-1 is a player who figures to run in the money

2 COOL HEART 10-1 looks a cut below

3 GREAT KNOWLEDGE 8-1 is about even with Heart

1 ABACO STORM 20-1 would be a surprise

BEST BETS WPS 4: Superfectas 4 with 5-6 with All with All: 4-6 with 4-5-6 with 4-5-6 with All: 4 with 2-3-5-6 with 2-3-5-6 with All

SIXTH RACE ARLINGTON PAR TURF ALLOWANCE 1 MILE

8 RIO RITA 6-1 has dirt form that figures to take this easy

5 SHE'S A GRINDER 4-1 looks like the main threat

3 JAZZ ODYSSEY 5-2 looks like the next main threat

7 JO'S FINALE 20-1 fills the superfecta

6 DUBIOUS 8-1 is pretty consistent

1 MISS SIPPY 20-1 is a good closer

4 FORTHELONGHAUL 6-1 looks mid pack here

2 LIGHTHOUSE DANCER 8-1 fades

9 HELLO JAKE 8-1 must run a career race to figure

BEST BETS WPS 8: Superfectas 8 with 3-5-7 with 1-3-5-6-7 with 1-3-5-6-7: Wheel 3-5-8 with 3-5-8 with 1-3-5-6-7-8 with 1-3-5-6-7-8: Box 3-5-7-8

7TH RACE ARLINGTON OPT CLM 1 1/16 MILE

3 CRAFTY RAY 8-1 from an overlooked stable that gets the job done

4 GROOM 4-1 is the leading contender

5 BEST ACTOR 4-5 will be overbet, and this could be a good show pool to bet others

6 GREYTAP 8-1 comes out of Arkansas

2 MISTER THAYER 8-1 looks outgunned

1 YESNABAY 8-1  could improve, but would be a surprise

CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 3 TURF ALLOWANCE 1 MILE

6 DIGNIFIED AIR 7-2 trainer Nicks used to reign, and this is a last chance for redemption. Looks to take it on best

3 JUNGLE TALE 3-2 is an obvious contender, but must prove himself outside of Woodbine

9 ELUSIVE TEMPER 9-2 only needs slight improvement from October 2 year old form

5 CREEK GIRL 8-1 will be near the lead for a long way

8 SWEET TUNE 15-1 looks mediocre, but is in a top stable

2 ULTIMATE CLASS 15-1 looks mediocre

7 WYNCHASE 15-1 looks mediocre

4 CHAMPAGNE JANE 20-1 is outgunned

1 HAVEANICEFADAAY 40-1 would be a super surprise to hit the board, a maiden against proven winners.

BEST BET WPS 6: Trifectas Box 3-6-9: Superfectas Wheel 6 with 3-9 with All with All: Wheel 6 with 3-5-9 with 3-5-9 with All: Box 3-5-6-9:

5TH RACE CHURCHILL CLM 7 FURLONGS

7 SOT GUN CLIFF 6-1 veteran Kaelin specializes in these, and looks tough

2 SMOKE TRAIL 2-1 looks slightly best, but figures to come up just short this time

6 EXPECT VALIDITY 12-1 ran pretty well in May June last year 

1 APPOINT VICTORY 6-1 hasn't raced in over a year, and could be overbet with Bowman training

5 FRENCHMAN'S COVE 3-1 is a steady force in longer races, and looks mid pack here

9 BROTHER RON 15-1 will run late

10 BOOGIEMANBALL 15-1 will also run late

8 GENTLEMAN SCHOLAR 20-1 could also be a late runner for superfectas

11 SUMMER LUCKY 20-1 needs some improvement

3 EXECUTIVE CHIEF 20-1 looks outgunned, but Montano is good at improvement

4 I'VE HEARD IT ALL 15-1 has the deadly combo of speed and class hike

BEST BETS WPS 7, PS 2, S 6: Trifecta Box 2-6-7: Superfecta box 1-2-6-7: Wheel 2-7 with 2-7 with 1-5-6-8-9-10 with 1-5-6-8-9-10: Wheel 7 with 1-2-6 with 1-2-6 with All

CHURCHILL 6TH RACE CLM 6 FURLONGS

8 RATTLIN GYSPY 7-2 comes out of cheap River races, but has times to take this on better races

4 HATHOR'S LEGACY 4-1 ran well on a very fast track

2 WILDCAT DREAMER 6-1 has decent form

3 CATFISH HOOK 15-1 has yet to be on a fast strip

10 SCHOOL PLAY 15-1  is a 4 year old in a third race off a layoff, and could pop the tri.

7 DANGEROUS PEG 10-1 could hit the superfecta

6 HICKORY DEE 6-1 Foley does best the first day of the meet, and typically falls short afterwards

9 ZIPSTRESS 8-1 has had a tough campaign to keep going

1 GRAY'S HART'S GIRL 15-1 has Amoss , but no chance on paper

5 POSH LADY 20-1 looks like the outsider

BEST BETS WPS 8: AtRIFECTA bOX 2-4-8: wHEEL 8 WITH 2-3-4 WITH 2-3-4-7-10: Superfectas Box 2-3-4-7-8, Wheel 8 with 2-4 with 2-4 with All

CHRUCHILL 7TH RACE: EDGEWOOD STAKES TURF 1 1/16 MILE

7 CACTUS DADILLAC 8-1 could upset apple cart in weak field

2 NEGLIGEE 8-5 is probably best, but could need another race to fire

1 POTOSINA 7-2 looks like a competitior

9 DYNAZAPER 9-2 looks good on paper, but Mott stable has struggled to get horses on improve

8 MIDWAY HOLIDAY 6-1 as Foley has good shot, will pass on him until end of meet

4 ALL CLOUDY 20-1 is overmatched

6 HIDDEN VALUE 20-1 is well overmatched

3 TITANIUM JANE 20-1 is well overmatched

5 AMBITIONESS 20-1 is way overmatched

best bets wps 2 ps 7: Trifectas Wheel 2-7 with 2-7 with All, Box 1-2-7: Superfectas Wheel 2 with 1-7-8-9 with 1-7-8-9 with All: Wheel 2-7 with 1-2-7 with 1-2-7 with All

NINTH RACE CHURCHILLL DOWNS ALLOWANCE TURF 1 MILE

11 EL CRESPO 5-2 Obvious chalk here tough to deny on class and moves. BEST BET

5 QUITE A HANDFULK 6-1 is the only real threat unless Crespo runs off kilter

3 RAVENSWORTH 15-1 has dirt form that should translate into contention here

9 SUNDAY SUNRISE 9-2 is very dangerous on his very best

12 A.U. MINER AE will try to run late and hit trifecta

7 INDOMABLE 10-1 is a "dark horse", an unknown factor from Germany who could be tough

1 WHIRLING THUNDER 10-1 looks a cut below others here

2 HARKEN UP 8-1 also looks a cut below

6 AU MOON 15-1 is a mid packer at best

4 MALTESE DOG 20-1 has speed but hikes in class

10 FAMILKY FOUNDATION 15-1 is well bred, but needs to prove himself here

8 SMARTEN DESTINY 20-1 looks outclassedBEST BETS WPS 11: PS 5 and 3: Trifecta Box 3-5-9-11. Superfectas wheel 11 with 3-5 with 3-5-7-9-12 with All: Wheel 7-11 with 7-11 with 3-9 with 3-5-9-12: Wheel 5-11 with 5-11 with 3-9-12 with All: Wheel 11 with 3-5-9-12 with 3-5-7-9-12 with 3-5-7-9-12 and Box 3-5-7-11