Churchill opens

And if we thought speed held at Keeneland, wait till they run on that hard surface at Churchill that hasn't seen too much rain the last month.

I feel guiting guilty, because I didn't give a lot of great tips over the Keeneland meet, yet still won big, patiently waiting for the big overlays. A huge payoff and exacta on Wednesday, along with an incredible payoff for the feature race on the final day, which involved the two top class runners (the winner running second in the same race last year miraculously went off at 7-1 against a lesser field) and the third place finisher at overlay odds after showing some of the best forward moves at Tampa. I boxed them in the trifecta and had them on top of the other 2 major contenders to hit the superfecta, and filled out the IRS forms for both.

Plus, the true to form racing at Hawthorne helped me, too,

 Now, we see Foley on opening day, and he does best on opening and closing day, so watch for him.

Here are some key races for Churchill 04/24/2010 Saturday

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH FOR EACH RACE

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

RACE 3 CHURCHILL DOWNS MDN CLAIMING 1 MILE

1 NILA MAC 2-1 ran poorly in straight maidens, but those races are still good enough to take this easy

8 NIKKI DARLING 6-1 finds a soft spot for first time start, is well bred, and runs for a stable that does well with first timers

3 DECANTERING 4-1 has a good trainer, but needs to run faster, still looks third best here

4 SUSIE'S SURPRISE 6-1 is bred to run well as a 3 year old, and worked a full 6 furlongs.

5 LET'S DREAM AGAIN 20-1 isn't special, but has more upside than others here, coming off straight maidens and trying a hard fast track for the first time. Could surprise. 

7 TENACIOUS ALLISON 6-1 is used to turns and turf, and it is extremely tough to get runners to revert to sprints 

2 TOMISUE GOT EVEN 6-1 can contend with Decantering, but comes from a stable that has really struggled the past few years, and regressed horribly at Keeneland

6 JIGGLE 20-1 has speed and takes a class hike, which is a fatal combination

BEST BETS: WPS 1, PS 8: Superfectas Box 1-3-4-8, Box 1-3-5-8, Wheel 1,8 with 1,8 with 3,4,5 with All, Wheel 1 with 3,4,5,8 with 3,4,5,8 with 3,4,5,8 

RACE 6 CHURCHILL Claiming 1 1/16 MILE

9 FOREST WARFARE 6-5 couild be the best bet, but may go down in odds quite heavily. He really stands out in form

7 INTI 6-1 is very dangerous, running well this time of year last year, albeit on turf, but still a threat. 

1 LITTLE MONTIE 9-2 runs well on fast tracks, and should complete the trifecta

6 EL PUMA 9-2 has decent form, but tough to see upseting the forest

2 DEVASTADOR 15-1 is mediocre at this level

3 BK'S CLEARANCEISLE 20-1 has failed before on fast tracks, and looks to come up short

5 SCARIFF ISLAND 15-1 doesn't have the times, but still Romans is one to watch.

4 SARKOZY 20-1 looks overmatched

8 PEACEPIPE HIGH 30-1 appears very overmatched

BEST BETS: WPS 9, S 7, Exacta Box 7,9: Superfectas Box 1-6-7-9, Wheel 9 with 1,6,7 with 1,6,7 with All, Wheel 7,9 with 1,6,7,9 with 1,6,7,9 with 1,2,6,7,9

RACE 7 CHURCHILL MAIDEN 6 1/2 FURLONGS

3 VACATUR 8-5 barely needs improvement from 2 year old races, and looks very solid

2 CATNANDU 5-2 is a 4 year old who looks best if Vacatur hasn't made a bit of progress

5 HIGH QUALITY 15-1 shows little, but is in a decent stable

7 GRACE BY DESIGN 15-1 is a first timer who may have found an easy slot, but still must prove it

8 LEOPARD ROCK 8-1 may get a share with her very best showing

1 LILY MEADOW 15-1 could have improved enough to hit board

4 SIMPLE WORDS 6-1 is from hard hitting with first timers Asmussen barn, but could be overbet on that

6 SUEKEL 20-1 looks outgunned

BEST BETS WPS 3: PS 2: Exacta box 2-3: Superfectas Wheel 2,3 with 2,3 with 1,5,7,8 with All: Wheel 3 with 1,2,5,7,8 with 1,2,5,7,8 with 1,2,5,7,8

RACE 10 CHURCHILL GRADE 3 DERBY TRIAL 1 MILE

1 GAME ON DUDE 15-1 and not just because of Baffert, but because he has the best moves, and is lightly raced.

10 EIGHTYFIVEINAFIFTY 2-1 because this kind of speed goes a long way on Churchill's fast strip at one turn

9 AIKENITE 3-1 is probably better than Ocho Cinco, but track bias against him, still a tough customer

6 MINER'S RESERVE 30-1 because you can't dismiss Zito's class and stable when it comes to improvement

5 HURRICANE IKE 6-1 the bridesmaid for Ocho Cinco, could surprise

8 HEAR YE HEAR YE 30-1 is from the Romans stable, but has raced 13 times already, and that's a rugged campaign.

4 PLEASANT PRINCE 9-2 will actually have to run the race of his life to figure

3 PRIVILAGED 12-1 doesn't look bad, but just short of many others

7 WOW WOW WOW 30-1 and it's hard to count out Lukas, but this one needs form reversal

2 SOARING EMPIRE 30-1 looks overmatched, although still a nice colt

BEST BETS WPS 1: PS 9: Saver Win and Show on 6: Exacta box 1-9-10: Superfectas try the saver approach 1 with 6,9,10 with 6.9,10 with All, Box 1-6-9-10, Wheel 1,6,9 with 1,6,9,10 with 1,6,9,10 with 1,5,6,8,9,10

That was the big one, and now for:

RACE 11 CHURCHILL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS

9 PRINCE DAVID 9-2 I know I said Foley, but Kaelin is a tough cookie, and this one has the Tamp;a times to demolish these

4 OUR LUCKY SOX 9-2 is Foley, and runs well on fast strips.

7 CAPE TOWN KING 2-1 deserves to be favorite, and has gret times in the West, but this sort usually doesn't run his best race now, but still figures

3 SHIP'S PIEANO 15-1 wants a longer race, and will be the one you see soaring in the stretch probably

5 STEVE'S REVENGE 15-1 can contend with his best

1 BONWELL 6-1 doesn't show the times, but Bowman is a capable trainer

8 BETATRON 10-1 looks best of the rest, running evenly at Hawthorne, and has back class.

2 PACIFICATOR 30-1 looks to be running a tightener, and is a long shot by any means

10 PROTECTOROFALLEVIL 30-1 looks like a long shot 

6 GNETLEMAN'S SCHOLAR 20-1 needs to be unchallenged, and figures to fade even here

BEST BETS WPS 9: PS 4: Trifecta Box 4-7-9: Superfecta Box 3-4-7-9: Wheel 9 with 3,4,5,7 with 3,4,5,7 with 1,3,4,5,7,8, Wheel 4,9 with 4,9 with 1,3,5,7,8 with 1,3,5,7,8