Spot play for 04/17/2010

Now for the spot play for Saturday.

Keeneland has been running horribly off form and not paying  the prices for it. This means too much interaction between backside people against the public, so I have found greener pastures at other tracks. For instance, Friday at Gulfstream, the ninth race couldn't have run much truer to form, yet a dead heat for fourth produced two superfectas that paid over $100 for a ten cent bet (payoff odds of over 1000-1)

But it is Hawthorne's 9th race that looks the best, with the conditions usually helping the handicapper

9TH RACE HAWTHORNED 6 FURLONG CLAIMING NON WINNERS OF 3 LIFETIME RACES

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH:

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

2 EARTHQUAKE LASS 7-2 but don't be afraid if it goes down to 5-2. Not only does she have the best moves and form, but she is dropping in class while showing speed, a great angle. This one is tough to beat.

11 JUST TAKE IT 20-1 has the most upside of the rest. She has the best forward moves, and is on a 4th race follwing a 4 month layoff, which could mean a peak performance. I'd pick her for the win if the trainer wasn't a miserable 0 of 9 for even hitting the board. Call this Nicolas Perez's last chance for redemption.

8 TRIX OF TRADE 6-1 is bred for speed on top and distance on the bottom. Majestic Light produces awkward big striding types, and this one has early foot and good moves, but looks just short of the top two. 

4 AFFECTION 12-1 has the best moves of the rest, but is used to much longer races. Still, this is a good one to key in third or fourth in exotics

1 TEEN 8-1 has some speed at this level, and should hang on to be near exotic betting range

3 PEORIA STAR 8-1 is fairly even with Teen and the three below her, but is in better form than most

6 LE BEE 8-1 may have an excuse for last outing, but is still just on a par with this mid packers here

12 MALAWI 6-1 looks to be damaged goods that will be overbet, with poor performances on a fast Fairgrounds course.

5 TWO BRIGHT 10-1 raced okay at this level in Arkansas, but gives no reason to expect better

10 LADY ZEAL 20-1 is fresh off a layoff and may be one to watch in the paddock, but needs a form reversal

9 MAKIN SOME BUCKS 20-1 has been steadily notches below these

7 NOT SOUTH 20-1 flashes some speed, but fades

BEST BETS: WPS on 2: WS on 11, PS on 8: Exacta box 2-8-11: Superfecta wheel 2 with 4-8-11 with 4-8-11 with All: Wheel 2 with 4-8-11 with 1-3-8-11 with 1-3-4-6-8-11: Wheel 2-8 with 2-8 with 1-3-4-11 with All: and Box 2-4-8-11.