Keys to the Lexington

Who knew my Arkansas Derby pick, LINE OF DAVID would pay as much as he did? Of course I bet him early, expecting about 4-1 odds on the obvious pick, and the only speed in the race.

Could he be the strongest speed foir the Kentucky Derby? He has an intriguing bloodline. There is very little duplication, as you go back 5 generations, and a lot of champions. This would seem to be a good thing.

I haven't made up my mind yet.

Now, for the final Derby prep races. One of them is at Keeneland.

Saturday 04/17/2010: RACE 9 KEENELAND GRADE 2 1 1/16 MILE LEXINGTON

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH:

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

3 DISTORTED DAVE 5-2 has best forward move, and comes off fairly soft surface agianst top Santa Anita competition. Obviously the one to beat.

6 PRINCE WILL I AM 10-1 is worth a win wager, having good 2 year old form, and coming from a Grade 2 Fountain of Youth. Any improvement over the last 2 months will be enough to take this. The concern is that he has trained on Chruchill's surface, and Kentucky has been very dry, which means the Chruchill surface is unbearably hard, and his april 11 workout of 5 furelongs could even be of concern. Still, he looms as the top threat.

1 KRYPTON 8-1 is a steady runner and hard to keep off the board. He is trained by a champ, nd has good form

11 KETTLE RIVER 12-1 looks to run late, and is trained by Eoin Harty, who likes to hit the board. 

4 BUSHWHACKED 15-1 comes off only 2 weeks rest, but that was 7 furlongs at Keeneland. He is bred for longer distances. Figures to come close here.

5 CALL SHOT 15-1 is improving. His best race was actually on turf, but a duplicate of that race would make it hard to beat him

2 UPSTOWNCHARLYBROWN 6-1 was consistent at Tampa, but Tampa runners are hot and cold on other tracks. Still deserves consideration

12 CHIEF COUNSEL 20-1 Mott usually knows what he is doing, although he hasn't been able to get imrpoved results from his stable. Still, this one looks like a possible superfecta filler

10 CONNEMARA 9-2 if he would've been 2nd against weak Turfway field, one might think the winner was that good, but he ran third, and it just looks like he isn't that great. Plus, Turfway's track was fast, and perhaps a bit harder than the usual poly surface, so he probably isn't 100% now.

7 LONESOME STREET 20-1 was second in the Rushaway at Turfway, and looks a bit outclassed here

9 HEAVENVILLE 12-1 has class based on state earnings, and already has 12 lifetime starts. He is not in this class, and is being run into the ground

8 EXHI 20-1 has early speed, but will be pushed here by others. Looks to be a good fast runner who just happens to fade here.

BEST BETS: WPS on both 3 and 6: Exacta box 3-6: Trifecta box 1-3-6-11, and wheel 3 with 1,6 wtih 1,2,4,5,6,11,12: Superfectas Box 1-3-6-11, and wheel 3,6 with 3,6 with 1,2,4,5,11,12 with 1,2,4,5,11,12, and wheel 3 with 1,4,5,6,11 with 1,4,5,6,11 with 1,4,5,6,11.