Not betable

April 10, 2010

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Johnny Matheis

Not betable

The present Keeneland meet has not been betable. Hot tips are winning and paying low odds, which is the peak of corruption. The daily racing form is completely useless, and sales will drop again.

This won'[t affect big days like 04/10/2010 with the Blue Grass Stakes, a major Grade 1 prep for the Kentucky Derby. It just meansa that backside stables are too friendly with each other, which is the same as dishonest racing. The public gets the shaft when trainers all decide who should win a race. Sometimes, though, they get fooled, and forget to tell an outsider or a jockey, who passes up their favorite in the stretch and wins at long odds.

The Blue Grass doesn't look like a betable race. No one stands out. AIKENITE looks best, but PADDY O'PRADO, who looks second best, has more upside for the race, coming off a turf course with a little more cushion.

After the top two, MAKE MUSIC FOR ME, PLEASANT PRINCE, and ODYSSEUS figure to be the major contenders.

RACE 9 KEENELAND 1 1/8 MILE GRADE 1 BLUE GRASS:

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH: 

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

7 PADDY O'PRADO 8-1 comes off a more cushiony surface, and has the forward moves to take this

8 AIKENITE 2-1 is very solid, and if he's fit for his best, will be hard to beat

4 MAKE MUSIC FOR ME 15-1 had 2 year old races to be competitive here, so any maturing at age 3 makes him a win candidate

6 PLEASANT PRINCE 3-1 ran second in the Grade 1 Florida Derby

5 CODOY 20-1 has stretch run which should put him closwe to filling out superfectas or trifectas

1 ODYSSEUS 9-1 has three straight wins, and makes a class test 

9 INTERACTIF 9-2 has speed, and speed has held up phenominally at Keeneland this meet

2 FIRST DUDE was fifth in the Grade 1 Florida Derby, so his finish will determine how good this field is

3 STATELY VICTOR 30-1 is an outsider who needs a form reversal.

BEST BETS: WPS on 7: ps ON 8: tRIFECTAS bOX 4-6-7-8: Superfectas 7,8 with 7,8 with 1,4,5,6 with All: 7,8 with 4,6,7,8 with 4,5,6,7,8 with 4,5,6,7,8: and 7 with 4,8 with 1,4,5,6,,8 with All

For the Arkansas Derby, I'd watch odds on

8 LINE OF DAVID

3 NOBLES PROMISE

1 SUPER SAVER

2 DUBLIN

Tri fillers

4 NORTHERN GIANT

7 BERBERIS

 

Keywords: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby

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