There are many big races today, 03/27/2010, but most people will be looking at the two major Derby prep races.
Turfway has a solid favorite for the Lanes End, or as most people still call it, the Jim Beam. Fairgrounds will have about 5 horses byinf for favorite role in a wide open Louisiana Derby.
The fields don't look stellar, but this when they're most dangerous. More up and comers.
TURFWAY PARK: RACE 9: GRADE 2 LANES END 1 1/8 MILE
Projected order of finish:
PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS
1 CONNEMARA 4-5 looks to romp, and makes this a tough race to bet. He has 3 wins and a 2nd in 4 starts, including a Grade 3 win. He won a race at Turway to break his maiden. If he doesn't romp here, his Derby hopes could be dashed.
6 OUTLAW MAN 6-1 is trained by McPeek, and could be the one to upset. He ran a fairly close 4th in a Grade 3 in California.
10 VOW TO WAGER 20-1 is Dale Romans, who won by disqualification in the prep for this on a slow track, and is a definite threat here. This is one that the more I look at, the more I like, and will probably go with if he isn't bet under 9-1.
2 DOUBLES PARTNER 10-1 comes off an allowance win, and could pick up the pieces if Connemara falters. The top three really do look like the top three.
7 NORTHERN GIANT 20-1 has a good chance to improve for Lukas, and hitting the board looks very a good possibility.
4 KETTLE RIVER 30-1 could sneak into the trifecta, but a win is a long shot.
9 DEAN'S KITTEN 10-1 has way too many races to not be broken down or worn out, and needs to improve.
5 RANGER HEARTLEY 10-1 is hard to like, because he began his career in May as a two year old, and already has 10 races. Hard to figure him not being worn out or broke down by now. His speed will falter here.
8 LETSGETITONMON 20-1 also has run his heart out to no avail.
3 CHIEF COUNSEL 40-1 looks way overmatched, but aside from Connemara, this isn't a stellar looking field.
BEST BETS: Hard to like a 4-5 when place money may pay just as well. Bet 1 to Place: 6 to win and show: a saver on 10 to win and show.
Superfectas: Box 1-2-6-10: Wheel 1 with 2,6,10 with 2,4,6,7,10 with All: Wheel 2,6,10 with 1 with 2,6,10 with All: Wheel 1,2,6 with 1,2,6 with 1,2,6,10 with All: And long shot special wheel 10 with 1,2,6 with 1,2,4,6,7,9 with 1,2,3,6,7,9. EXACTA: Wheel 1 with 2,6, 10: Trifecta Box 1-6-10. Box 1-2-6, and wheel 1 with 2,6,10 with 2,4,6,7,9, 10
FAIRGROUNDS: RACE 10: GRADE 2 LOUISIANA DERBY 1 1/8 MILE
Projected order of finish:
PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS
9 STAY PUT 6-1 had a good forward move in the Grade 2 Risen Star, and did so after coming off some hard, fast tracks. He has a very meager edge here.
6 RON THE GREEK 6-1 also had a good move, and trainer Amoss is one to reckon with. This could be close with these two.
3 FLY DOWN 20-1 looks good, and is trained by Zito. He comes off a race with a low track differential, and that usually means it was a harder than usual track, so this might be one to watch and see if it affects him.
4 THE PROGRAM 4-1 should be favored, trained by Baffert, and running well in California. He does have a lot of races, though. Having raced 8 times already is probably too much, and he is vulnerable.
5 A LITTLE WARM 6-1 stretches out from just 7/8 mile, but he has class and breeding.
2 MISSION IMPAZIBLE 20-1 is not as well regarded as Pletcher's other entry, but comes out of Oaklawn with good times, and may be the stronger one.
7 DISCREETLY MINE 49-2 won the prep for this race, wire to wire, and is still dangerous.
10 WOW WOW WOW 20-1 looks outmatched, but Lukas has a way of figuring out a problem and getting at least one top race out of a horse. this is still a long shot.
11 MISTER MARTI GRAS 20-1 has slow times and runs late, so he should pass a couple up in the stretch. Any more would show vast improvement, which is possible on his fourth lifetime start.
13 DROSSELMEYER 8-1 is a mid packer here, and trainer Mott needs to prove he can get a horse better instead of worse.
8 ISLAND SOUL 20-1 has good form in four lifestime starts, but his times are subpar. Still, he could easily improve enough to figure here.
1 HOTEP 30-1 looks outclassed, and would need a form reversal to hit the board.
12 BACKTRACK 30-1 stretches out from only 3/4 mile, and his speed ooks doomed here. More than that, he comes off a hard fast track, which is tough to be fully healthy after.
BEST BETS: Forget convention and bet both 6 and 9 across the board.
Superfectas: Box 3-4-6-9: Wheel 6,9 with 6,9 with 2,3,4,5 with All: Wheel 6,9 with 2,3,4,5,6,9 with 2,3,4,5,6,9 with 2,3,4,5,6,9, 10, 11: Wheel 9 with 3,4,5,6 with 3,4,5,6 with All
Keywords: Louisiana Derby easier to bet than old Jim Beam
