BOXed in

I didn't make a post before the Florida Derby, because nothing really stood out. The two Zito horses looked as good as any, but the question was whether a "patient" trainer like Zito would have them firing for this or for later. I put two to win on each, but since ICE BOX was more experienced that MINER'S RESERVE, I put a little extra on him

Also, at 1 1/8 mile, ICE BOX was approaching his better distance thatMiner. MINER'S RESERVE is a son of MINESHAFT, and out of a FORY NINER dam, Royal Reserves. FORTY NINER is still long sprint bloodlines. Good bloodlines, but still not a natural Grade 1 classic distance runner.

Still, both are useful. ICE BOX began his career at Saratoga at age 2 in early August. he ran 4 races as a 2 year old, which is enough for experience, but not excessive enough to break down. He broke his maiden in his last race as a 2 year old at a mile and 70 yards. He then raced January at Gulfstream to win an allowance race, then made a good forward move in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth, the prep for the Florida Derby, to finish 5th.

What we're wondering now is if he, or any of the other Florida Derby runners, are Kentucky Derby possible winners. It looked like a weak field going in, but a Grade 1 is usually strongest when it is up and comers who don't look so good on paper.

Times are not as important as the bloodlines, trainer, class, campagin strategy, and probable fitness. ICE BOX came out of a fairly fast race with a month rest. So this is the guideline to look for an optimum effort.

On bloodlines, he is the son of PULPIT, good enough, out of a TOBASCO CAT dam, which pushes it for distance.   

The campaign strategy could mean one more race before the Kentucky Derby, or perhaps he'll just train into it and avoid injury. What I would look for is a race closer in date to the Florida Derby, and give him close to a one month rest for Kentucky. I wouldn't want to back him, for instance, if he runs another prep after April 10, and would actually rather see him race on two weeks rest and leave four weeks into the Derby. But Zito does what is best for the horse, not best for the Kentucky Derby, so I feel confident he won't enter ICE BOX unless he is properly sound and ready.

In fact, trust the Florida Derby to be a good solid group aimed for the Kentucky Derby.