This weekend features 3 big derby preps, but the big one I'll just avoid and let you have fun with at Santa Anita, also because Santa Anita is usually a form maker more than a form reading track. It's the sort of track where inside information really helps.
Both of these races are of course Saturday, March 13. For newcomers, the number before the horse name is the program number
11TH TAMPA BAY DOWNS Tampa Derby Grade 3 1 1/16 mile
2 TUVIA'S FORCE 4-1 may take longer to develop sinceit is trained by a giant, Zito, the sort who doesn't rush things along, but lets the horse do the talking. Still, he has a good forward move, and should be about even with the two chalks.
6 SUPER SAVER Even money- hasn't raced since winning a Grade 2 November at Chruchill. Being fresh is good, especially since he came from Churchill's hard track, which may explain the lay off
7 ODYSSEUS 3-1 is highly regarded, but hasn't been in a class race yet. Still, he looks like a top contender, but make him prove it, especially if his odds are this low.
4 SLAMMY BOY 15-1 looks like the most plausible of the four long shots, since his only dirt race was a sprint in November. He should be in better condition for his class than the others since he raced on turf
3 GLEAM OF HOPE 15-1 was no threat to Super Saver in November, so trainer Reinstedler must think he improved enough to come closer, and may be a good tri or super filler
5 SCHOOLYARD DREAMS came in 2nd in a Grade 3 on this track, but the track differential that day wa 09 on Feb13, so he has had a month rest, but still comes out of a race from a fairly hard track, and looks like an odd man out
1 UPSTOWNCHARLYBROWN 15-1 also came out of that race, and didn't run quite as well as Schoolyard.
Superfectas Box 2-4-6-7, Wheel 2 with 4, 7 with All with All, and wheel 2, 4, 7 with 2, 4, 7 with All with All. And one saver stab in the dark of 4 with 2-6 with 2-6-7 with All
10th OAKLAWN PARK -Grade II Rebel at 1 1/16 mile. This one looks like you can toss some out in.
5 PLEASANT STORM 6-1 is worth a stab if the odds are over 5-1. He has the best forward move, but may want a longer race, and comes off a fairly fast track February 20, so look for him to make more noise later in the Arkansas Derby
2 LOOKIN AT LUCKY Even money-looks very good off a Grade 1 win in California last December. Baffert probably has a good one, but I wouldn't want to take him at these low odds
6 NOBLE'S PROMISE 3-1 came close to Lucky last time out, and trainer McPeek is a veteran.
4 UH OH BANGO 15-1 had some good moves in Grade 3 events to end last year, and is a threat at a price
7 DUBLIN 8-1 ran a career effort last time out, and trainer Lukas is better at getting a down horse better than putting two back to back efforts.
1 CARDIFF GIANT 15-1 already has 11 lifetime races, and looks slightly outmatched to boot.
3 ROYAL EXPRESS 15-1 has a lot of early speed for less classy races, and appears overmatched.
Superfects Box 5-2-6-4, wheel 2,5 with 2,5 with 4,6 with All, wheel 2, 5 with 2,4,5,6 with 2,4,5,6,7 with 2,4,5,6,7, and wheel 2,5 with 2,5 with All with All
Good luck, and watch for the overlays
Keywords: Tampa Derby and Rebel Ky Derby preps
Comments
Thank you Smitty. If you leave out the long I put on top, you'd do ok Saturday. Of course you have been around long enough to know that in the long run we are better off using the overlays. I was way ahead all year last seson because of my 50-1 winner WIN WILLy at Oaklawn inDerby preps.
I decided to look over the two long shots for further use. TUVIA'S FORCE looked terrible when watching the race. PLEASANT STORM certainly was no threat at Oaklawn. I knew going into the races that these might be still developing. Which one would I toss out first? Not sure. PLEASANT STORM came off a fast and possibly hard track with a little less than a month's rest. Probably ample time, but I won't condemn him yet because although he stretched out, it was still only 1 1/16 mile, and he is bred for perhaps longer, and runs that way. I like him to at least hit the board when going 1 1/8 mile. How he does that will influence how much I'd like him in Derby superfectas.
TUVIA'S FORCE is still the one I'll keep an eye on simply because he did run a terrible race. He just looked bad, and I'm not convinced he even changed leads. Something about the mechanics was off, and Zito is one of the 3 guys we know will get a horse better. There are others, but the three giants remain Shug, Zito, and Nafzger. Mott, once one of the most respected, has been having trouble with horses declining instead of inclining. I'm hoping he turns his stable around this year.
Zito raced TUVIA'S FORCE three times as a 2 year old, beginning in August at Saratoga, so he probably isn't as run down as others. He was rested close to 4 months before running 3rd in an allowance at Gulfstream, and then Zito placed him here. He looks like a work in progress, and usually it about the 4th race off of a long layoff (and this one wasn't that long) when a horse shows real improvement, so the next time, the third off a midsized layoff, is something I won't count out. Zito raised him quite a bit in class, and sees something in him. That's enough for me to not toss out. Of course, I'd want a price on him, and if he drops back into allowance company, I'll get off of him. That's why a good trainer wins at longer odds often. When a good trainer drops such a horse into a cheaper race, the odds go way down, and the horse really hasn't improved, so he is less likely to do well, but if the good trainer keeps him at a high level, then he knows there is improvement, and what looks on paper like the same horse will be a better performer at a better price simply because a good trainer knows a good horse. So if TUVIA'S FORCE stays in the stakes, even minor stakes, I'll stay with him, but won't use him if he goes down to allowance races (unless the price is too good to avoid)