These 2 days of racing in California, what sticks out the most is the absence of the giants in the industry. The three most respected trainers, McGaughey, Zito, and Nafzger not only don't have any entrants in ANY of the Breeder Cup races, but in none of the other races on the cards.
We know these three don't enter unless they feel they have a strong chance. This year, as we see from the low payoffs, there are too many trainers just "showing up to lose". Theses races are supposed to be the BEST in each race, and logically should be all 7-1 in a 10 horse field. Low payoffs are a sign of dishonest and poor training.
And low payoffs don't mean Good Form. The low payoffs yesterday were all incredible UNDERLAYS, horses who ran the best races of their lives, and who would've been 15-1 or higher to anyone who reads the Daily Racing Form. So, is the Daily Racing Form giving false information? I doubt that. Instead, this means that other trainers in the races are there to booze it up and bet down these underlays.
On paper, no one stands out in the classic. In the standard method of determining class, none of them even surpass the $400,000 mark. In this race, that's very unusual. Zenyata is undefeated and has a good forward move, but it would be lackluster most years, and this year the filly could well be the slightly deserving favorite.
Many of them aren't bred for the distance. Mine That Bird, Summer Bird, and Regal Ransom are bred for sprints and middle distance, and only win at the classic distances on the old super hard dirt surfaces or against weak and hurt horses.
GO PONTI would be my lukewarm pick, over COLONEL JOHN, but only because the field is so weak. If the winner doesn't pay over $14.00, and there are more such low payoffs in the races today, know it is because the trainers are working too hard together to hoodwink the public. Some stables do this. Many vicious minds in the backside, hateful of the people who make their living.
If I was to pick one race today, it would the BC Juvenile. Keeneland typically draws the best ones, and AIKENITE looks to have a slightly better move than the others. After him, PISCITELLI is listed at 50-1, although on form he should be 10-1. Looks like sportswriters are too much in the inside with the trainers. If he does run poorly, you'll know this is the case. NOBEL'S PROMISE should be favored around 9-2, and looks formidable. To round out a 4 horse exacta bos, ALFRED NOBEL looks the best of the foreign invaders. To round out 10 cent supers, the best ones to add look to be Aspire, Lookin at Lucky, Pulsion, and D'Funnybone.
The second best race looks like the 2nd, which starts the Breeder Cup races, Juvenile on Turf. CODOY had a forward move as far back as August, to take this. If trainer Mark Hubley is there for honest reasons, he'll be right there. ZIP QUIK had a great move on dirt, which should translate well to turf. He ran on a vry fast track last out, so hopefully the 2 month rest will mean he isn't sore. AWESOME ACT looks like a good foreign invader. So does VISCOUNT NELSON. POUNCED is bred for these middle distances. These should make up most of the superfecta.
The third race I would take is the mile. No real stickouts here. However, READY'S ECHO looks to have a slight advantge. He has the best forward moves, even in the race where Pyro beat him, so PYRO must be used as well. MASTERCRAFTSMAN looks like a real good one to put in a tri box. Savers would include CHOCOLATE CANDY who closes well at this distance, BULLSBAY who looks to be in too short a race, and NEKO BAY who looks to be shooting for 3rd or 4th. If the track is slow, 24 second split FURTHEST LAND could easily hit the tri or super.
Keywords: Low payoffs signifies low standards among Breeder Cup trainers
