2 year olds at Churchill 11-1-2009

Each horseplayer has to have an edge, which is a secret only he uses. If other people use it, then he gets underlays and not only does he become a loser, but so do the people who steal his picks. In other words, if Joe picks the 3 horse and bets 5 to win, and Jenny decides to do the same, and she tells Fran and Bill, who each tell two friends, and before long Joe's 5 dollars is represented by 300 dollars, since at least one of those friends is an idiot who bets big money, and there are those at the track who simply bet what they see money bet on, and they can easily turn a 28-1 into a 12-1. Joe's available profit turns from 56 dollars (58.00 payoff) to 24.00 (26.00 payoff). He has to hit this twice as often. He plays it because if he wins one time in 30 he comes out ahead. Now one time in 30 puts him behind, because his own friends cut their own throats just to cut his. That's what it amounts to.

But as a blogger, I have to live with that. Just remember that only idiots bet more than 10 to win on a horse, (and yes, even I can be an idiot), because the more you bet, the more chance you have to rob yourself of your own payoff. Figure that 20 dollars, on an average day, will bring your payoff down at least 20 cents on 2 dollars, so you already cut your own throat out of two dollars.

So remember this and keep your bets low, and only play when the odds are okay.

Now, for a big secret that even I forget sometimes, but probably is the least used tool to handicapping.

Horses are animals.

Members of the animal kingdom. If you, or a four legged friend of your's runs over a hard surface, lots of internal damage is done which takes a while to recover from. The bigger the animal, the more time it takes to recover.

So you look for the chief advantage of the daily racing form to the program, THE SPEED DIFFERENTIAL. This gives the best clue as to how hard a surface was. It also tells you a lot about false fractions. Some tracks, like many California tracks, will run very fast fractions. And many tracks change from meet to meet.

The differentials are based upon the track's speed records for the distance, so newer tracks have an excuse for low differentials often. And often a horse may run on a day when there are a lot of 5 furlong sprints, which make for low differentials, or perhaps a rarely run route race. Generally, this stat gives you the best clue of how hard the track is, though.

And low differentials indicate harder tracks, which means not only does the horse have faster fractions than he would normally have, but he will take longer to recover.  It can cripple you. Remember Barbaro? Ran soft tracks, or would wait a month after a hard track, then the trainer got stupid and ran two weeks after running on the super hard derby track. Owners have no say in this, so don't even go there. It is a trainer who decides this, and this is one trainer who should've been fired by the owner, and never hired by any intelligent owner afterwards.

Taking this is mind, Churchill has mostly fragile two year olds today.

SIXTH RACE CHURCHILL

9 RIVER OAKS 3-1 even without coming off a softer surface looks like an easy winner, even with the downfallen Mott training. He needs this to maintain any kind of self respect, considering how good he once was. His trainees go down too much instead of up, and he has to win this.

10 BIG SHAKE 8-1 comes off good race on softer surface, and has Simon, once a top trainer, in charge.

3 DUAL FORECAST 8-1 is competitive here.

17. TARGET PRACTICE 20-1 could surprise if he draws in through scratches

12 FURIOUS RUN 20-1 is well bred and comes off good races from soft surfaces

10 cent superfectas 9 with 3,10 (17), 12, with 3,10, (17), 12, 2, 5 with 3, 10, (17), 2, 5, (18), (16). Also put 9 in 2nd in same wheel. Also 9 with 3,10, with All with All. In case of scratches, move some of these others up a notch.

EIGHTH RACE CHURCHILL

4 TIZ MIZ SUE 4-1 not only looks like a leading contender, but should be incondition.

3 SASSY IMAGE 7-2 looks like the winner, but the top pick comes off a softer surface, and this makes a differnce. Box these two in any case. Very close.

5 HAPPY WEEK 12-1 as Pletcher is best with 2 year olds, and this is bred to get better and to like Churchill. Could upset.

10 VERTICAL VISION 6-1 has good times on fast surfaces, and can't be tossed out, but use 6-1 as a measuring stick. Don't use him if he goes under that.

13 TIDAL POOL looks pretty good, and may put Lukas back in the spotlight.

10 cent superfectas 3,4 with 3,4 with All with All: 3,4,5 with 3,4,5 with 3,4,5 with All: 3,4,5 with 3,4,5 with All with 3,4,5: 4 with 3,4,10,13 with All with 3,4,10,13

NINTH RACE CHURCHILL

7 BUCKWATER BLUES 6-1 has good times and comes off softer surface. Looks like the BEST BET

9 PEGASUS PRANCER 2-1 is a deserving favorite off good Keeneeland race

10 ZI ZIPP 15-1 comes out of cheaper Turfway race, but has a good move, and looks to be good and fit here

3 DRYFLY 10-1 Whiting is always tough, and this one is probably fit

1 HARKEN UP 4-1 deserves to be second choice off Kee race, and may have run harder than favorite, but if the odds hover over 4-1, keep this in all positions in the superfecta

10 cent superfecta Box 1-3-7-9-10: wheel 7 with 1,3,9,10 with 1,3,6,8,9,10 with All: wheel 7 with 9,10, with 9,10 with All three times: 7,9,10 with 7.9,10 with 1,3,7,9,10 with All

TENTH RACE CHURCHILL

1 RAGING WIT 7-2 again the lowly Mott, but this one looks like a sure thing with good times, and should be fit coming off softer surface.

9 FIST OF RAGE 8-1 won at Keeneland uner McPeek, with nice time, and has to be considered.

10 THISHASNOLIMIT 3-1 is the second classiest, but comes off hard surface

6 DUBLIN 5-2 is the class, but comes off 3 hard surface races.

10 cent superfectas 1 with 9 with All with All: 1,9 with 1,9 with All with All: 1,9,10 with 1,9,10 with 1,2,4,6,9,10 with 1,2,4,6,9,10.

Good luck, and remember to watch the odds. Don't be a sucker for underlays. Even it they hit, over time, they still lose