Saturday, July 11, 2009, features a big race in California, and those of us who saw Shug's Parading race at Keeneland in the flesh know he is a phenom, and Grade 1 Breeder Cup classic material. His price should be tiny Saturday.
Arlington offers some good stakes action. The Grade 3 Handicap features one of the most underrated horses of the last few years, and one with the hardest luck. STREAM CAT is the real deal, and capable of demolishing nearly any field. He races in a classic distance 1 1/4 mile turf. Of course, at about 3-1, we want a good superfecta to go with him.
Projected order of finish:
July 11 2009 Arlington Park Race 12: Grade Turf 1 1/4 mile Handicap:
11: STREAM CAT 3-1 is the real deal and real due
9: JUST AS WELL 6-1 has the best forward move of the rest, and should run second easy
2: PUBLIC SPEAKER 20-1 looks to be improving on solid form, and his speed held on for a close second to a highly regarded Silverfoot on a fairly slow course.
4: RECAPTURETHEGLORY 12-1 from Risen Star's trainer, Louie Roussel, ran fifth in last year's Kentucky Derby, and has shown promise.
12: COSMONAUT 6-1 has back class, running second to Stream Cat in this same race the same time of season last year.
1: PLAN 15-1 has back class and this is the third race off a layoff, so he could upset. Watch and play if he gets astronomical odds. He was second here in a Grade 1 last August, close enough to being the same time of season.
6: SILVERFOOT 4-1 is in powerful Dallas Stewart stable, and ran his best race to win the Tin Man. Would have to duplicate that effort to break into the top three here. Still a contender.
7: ORDINATION 20-1 is lightly raced enough to keep from running a poor race, but comes up short here.
8. EMBOSSED 20-1 also ran his best race in the Tin Man, closing well. Must improve to factor here.
13: THABAZIMBI 20-1 is from the inconsistent Mott barn, so expect anything.
5: MY HAPPINESS 20-1 appears outclassed, but he closes ground well.
3: TELLING 20-1 closed to run second to Silverfoot last year. Must duplicate that effort to hit the board.
10: GENTLEMAN CHESTER 30-1 from a usually tough Ralph Nicks barn that doesn't seem to get the stock the big outfits get, is shooting for the stars, but Nicks isn't a poor trainer and may know something. Still see this as a tightener.
Superfectas: 11 with 9 with All with All: then 11 with 2,4,9,12 with 1, 2,4, 6, 9,12, with 1,2,4,6,9,12: then 9,11 with 9,11 with 2,4,12 with All: then box 2-4-9-11 and box 2-9-11-12.
50 cent tris: Box 2-9-11, then wheel 11 with 2,4,9,12 with 1,2,4,6,9, 12.
Looks like a bargain. Stay witht he overlays. They pay off in the long run, no matter how many low prices the jockeys try to bring in.
Keywords: Arlington Handicap: Stream Cat for real
