Could the Belmont be Hot Stuff?

Clearly, the Derby winning Mine That Bird deserves to be favored. Usually, coming out of the Derby and Preakness is the kiss of Death simply because of such hard surfaces in 2 weeks time, but this year the surfaces had a bit of cushion. This doesn't mean Bird will automatically be unhurt, but his chances are much better. Still, while he outran his bloodlines in the Derby, and ran true to them in the Preakness, we can figure the Derby is the one race against form, and that he won't run as well in the Belmont.

The Preakness had a fairly soft field, as usual. Mine That Bird is still the class. Dunkirk can be excused his one clunker in the Derby. The big question is how soft were the California invaders? Since Pioneer of the Nile ran second in the Derby, one can give credibility to the West Coast this year, at least in the odds.

Three entrants are shooting for the Moon. You can toss out LUV GOV, FLYING PRIVTE, and MINER'S EXCAPE. Of course I said you could toss out Mine That Bird before the Derby.

Here is the projected order of finish.

3 MR. HOT STUFF 10-1 had the best forward move in California, and is bred for the distance, and also to keep growing and getting better. He should be a price, and I wouldn't recommend him if he gets bet down to 6-1. I'd rather he not have had a workout on June 1, as that is a bit close to the race, but he did work at Keeneland, which has the cushion of polytrack, and is where the best work.

10 BRAVE VICTORY 20-1 is Zito's best chance. He actually ran a better race than the winner of the Peter Pan, and seems to be aiming for this race. He is bred for shorter races, but his work pattern and racing pattern gear up to this, and if he isn't healthy, Nick will scratch him. Runs a big race today. 

7 MINE THAT BIRD 4-5 is the class. The Preakness he ran true to form, so the Derby could be the fluke race. Despite his coming from behind, he probably won't sustain that bid in a classic distance again.

4 SUMMER BIRD 20-1 is running over his bloodlines. He is bred for much shorter, but he is lightly raced, which is good, and is in the Ice stable, which quietly does their job, and that makes this one a good superfecta or trifecta kicker.

1 CHOCOLATE CANDY 6-1 would rate higher if he hadn't already raced so much. He started his career in May as a 2 year old, and has 10 races under his belt. It's a miracle if he isn't broke down by now. He has the form to be right there, and probably does have another great race in him.

2 DUNKIRK 10-1 has license to improve, as the Derby can just be considered his clunker. Most of us figured he'd throw one in the Derby. He has good bloolines, but really must prove himself. Anything under 10-1 is an underlay, and he really can't be used at such low odds. He's been the insiders' pick, however, and they know what goes on behind closed doors.

6 CHARITBLE MAN 6-1 is lightly raced, and is the last of the contenders. He is bred for stamina on the dam's side, but his sire's side is geared more to sprints. He was midpack in the Grade 1 Blue Grass, which was won by General Quarters, who figures to be a low Grade 3 or allowance runner. That field was very evenly matched, and he looks like a midpack finisher today.

9 MINER'S ESCAPE 30-1 is so much like last year's Zito winner that he probably is just trying to repeat History more than form. It is the lesser accomlished, but better bred of his duo. If you take one of the bottom 3, this is the most likely, but anything under 20-1 is an insane underlay. 

5 LUV GOV 40-1 is a shot at the Moon by Lukas. He only rates over Private because of better bloodlines for distance.

8 FLYING PRIVATE 30-1 is a notch below these. Lukas appears to be trying to get show money, but this is another who hands at classic distances. His bloodlines are totally sprint oriented

Superfectas: Box 1-3-4-7, then wheel 3 with 1,2,7,,10 with 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 10 with 1, 4, 6, 10. Then wheel 1,2,3 10 with 1, 3, 4, 7, 10, with 1, 3, 4, 7, 10 with 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10. Lastly, a 3, 10 with 3,7, 10 with 1, 3, 4, 7, 10 with All