Belmont usually the form filling race

We've had two fiascos so far. The Derby was unpredictable. The Preakness was an obvious jockey race, which is what you call an obvious fix, when a weak favorite is given an easy lead and practically wires a field, with the second choice running second.

The Belmont is usually the form fitting race. MINE THAT BIRD and MUSKET MAN have shown the most class, but neither are bred to go classic distances. How they did so well in the Derby can best be attributed to overconfident trainers in the other stables.

Lukas still appears to be shooting for the moon with his entrants. Rachel is improbable, since the fillie is going a mile and a half against colts, with 3 weeks more maturity on them come Belmont time, a double WHAMMY! There are trainers and jockeys who will try to let her win, but can they hold back their mounts for the full distance?

The two best suited for the distance are DUNKIRK and MR HOT STUFF. I would rather see them in the hands of Shug, Zito, or Nafzger, but they are in pretty good hands with Pletcher and Harty.

While the fillie is a toss out, what about Mine That Bird and Musket Man?

Both have shown class, Bird for two races, and Musket for three. Their relative tracks were soft enough to not be scared off too much for strain, but there is always strain. There is no such thing as "winning easy". Only complete idiots who rely on dumb luck believe horses win easy. If the horse wins easy, he'd pop right back the next day and win again. No, it doesn't happen.

Bird and Musket fail in the pedigree department for the Belmont distance. Don't be fooled by stretch runs. It's still the distance that matters, and the time to run it. We know that the local universities have piddled with genetic engineering to enhance the Mr Prospector line. The improvement of the Prospector horses since the formation of their programs proves that beyond any possible doubt. So this may aid these two runners.

TERRAIN is not listed, and may have blown his chance. It looked like the right time for him to peak, but he ran midpack. So far, all the usual names are pretenders in the Grade One department. Dunkirk is the easiest to excuse of the Derby flops. It looked like the race he might throw in a clunker. Same for Hot Stuff. Between these two, we're probably looking at the Belmont winner, unless a surprise entry comes along.