Obviously, many of the long shots are entered because the trainers think the field is suspect. This is delusiional thinking. This is still a Grade 1 stakes, and a big one.
So who do you toss out?
I won't try to sway bettors one way or another. Instead, I'll show who stands out.
First, the Derby winner. Mine That Bird is obvious.
The second place finisher, Pioneer of the Nile is consistent, and must be used.
But the one who stands out for the win spot had forward move at Keeneland in the Grade 1 Blue Grass of 47 2/5 seconds between the four furlong and mile mark.
He was 4th in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile.
He is bred pretty much for this distance just short of classic.
He has 8 lifetime starts, experienced, but not worn down.
His name is Terrain.
Certainly the best exacta and tri boxes will be 2-6-9. You can handle your long shot picks from there.
Preakness forecast:
6 TERRAIN 10-1 has class and a forward move to put these away
2 MINE THAT BIRD 7-2`may be higher odds than this, and you have to respect a Derby winner in this race, particularly since he was bred for a shorter distance.
9 PIONEER OF THE NILE 3-1 obviously
3 MUSKET MAN 8-1 is doing well, and is an obvious contender
1 BIG DRAMA 12-1 is a wise guy bet and a probable underlay, with lots of speed
8 GENERAL QUARTERS 20-1 is a plugger and finishes midpack. He's Grade 3 material
4 LUV GOV 40-1 is a Lukas longshot worthy of the gimmicks
10 FLYING PRIVATE 30-1 another Lukas runner worthy of gimmicks
11 TAKE THE POINTS 20-1 isn't that good, but is fresh
5 FRIESAN FIRE 12-1 had his chance and came up short
10 TONE IT DOWN 40-1 looks outclassed
13 RACHEL ALEXANDER 4-1 is a serious underlay, already reaching her peak
7 PAPA CLEM 10-1 had a lot of luck, but really must prove himself
Keywords: Terrain well for Preakness
