Form went upside down in the Derby. Four of the runners with the most sprint in their bloodlines ran first through fourth, coming mostly from behind.
As I stated before, there can be no clear cut favorite. Oddsmakers are making the filly the favorite. Not only does this defy logic, it defies Anatomy, since the females of all species, including equines develop and mature earlier than males. Therefore, while the fillies hit their peaks young, as with humans, the males are still builing up.
Mine That Bird deserves a small favorite status off the derby win, and going to a distance much better for him.
But to take anyone at less than 6-1 would be stupid, and would mean you're relying on blind luck.
Most of the classic trainers are out. Mott, McGaughey, Nafzger, Zito are all absent. Lukas has two long shots.
Therefore, after the race, you can't brag about being a great handicapper if you win with less than a $12.00 payout on Mine That Bird, the filly, or the Derby's second, third and fourth place finishers. And you can't brag about being an expert handicapper with less than a $25.00 payout on any of the others. In fact, anyone who hits on payoffs lower than this can only brag about having dumb blind luck. There won't be any minus show pools (I can't imagine that, but it's always worth a look for handicapers). This doesn't look like a good betting race, but who knows? Perhaps some keen observer will be rewarded with their overlay bet. I'll be pulling for them.
Keywords: No handicapping Preakness
