The first thing I said Friday night was, "I better remember to save 20 bucks to get into a pick six synidcate for the sure carryover on Wednesday.
This time, like most handicappers, I'm not even concerned about handicapping. I just want to throw in my money in any available synidcate to try to get that 700,000 or so dollars up for grabs. It's the one time that the odds are theoretically on your side, but you still have to get lucky. No one wants to pick the horses, though.
And looking at Wednesday, it isn't easy. The fourth race is a maiden claimer with some first timers, that ABSOLUTELY anyone can win (okay, but not Absolutely Cindy-she's not in it). With minimum 2 dollar bets, only the wealthy will use multiple horses here. The best thing for most to do is either use all of them or just key one whose name may as well be picked by the woman in the hat who thinks that Mott is apple sauce.
The fifth race is one I would single. The 2 TOSCA'S KISS ran in a minor stakes at Turfway, and usually the best fillies run in Kentucky. She has the best moves throughout the race, and looks like a solid key. If she loses, any one could win, though GATORIZE looks second best. Ralph Nicks was in a slump, so those 2 wins in 6 starts snuck up on me.
The sixth is another wide open maiden. The one to beat is an also eligible, and the 11 PROMULGATION, a 4 year old trained by Motion, draws in, she is an easy key. I do like the 3 MARIA'S MOON, with excellent bloodlines and a nice stable, but I would demand value. I would look for David Vance to get out of his slump with the 8 DOO WOPPA DO, who has the moves on dirt at Oaklawn that can handle this group if she handles the turf, should the 11 not draw in. A late edit on this, since Promulgation is scratched, and after the scratches, only 6 entrants are left. That makes this a short field that a syndicate should just use ALL on their ticket. For the loners with less funds, the 8 and 3 are the top picks.
The seventh and eighth are short fields, and are best to use "All" in and not try to pick a winner. Late edit, with only 4 running in the eighth race, it is a MUST to use ALL in the pick six ticket, unless you are one of those guys who can rely on God's grace and dumb blind luck.
The ninth is a tricky call. The 9 CRAIG'S TYLER looks like a drop dead winner, but comes from way back, and Churchill is a bad place for this. Many jockeys think they can hold a horse back in the clouds, and need a horse from Krypton to stand a chance. The fact that these jockeys, who are really the worst, make tainers look good by holding a horse back and showing energy in the stretch, also means that trainers usually like to name poor jockeys on their mounts. Most trainers are very paranoid. Still, Craig looks like a standout, and if he doesn't rally, again, it is pretty wide open. Those with the best chance of winning if the usual speed is favored are the 6 MR CHAMP, Hartlage's 4 JOLLY OL' NICK, Bowman's 1, SAVIANO, or Kaelin's 5 SHOT GUN CLIFF. This is a very difficult one to single, but there are too many runners to use ALL in the pick six ticket.
With these short fields, the syndicates are licking their chops. Some will go All with 4 picks with ALL with ALL with ALL with 1 single, then add on some shorter wheels to include All in the first and last legs, which is in the five digit range, but pretty sure to get at least the five win consolation. and most likely the pick six. This is nothing for the big syndicates and the Louisville lawyers and doctors who get in their local ones. Should be a nice day for them.
Co best bets are TOSCA'S KISS in the fifth and DOO WOPPA DO in the sixth.
Keywords: Large pick six carryover at Churchill
