It doesn't help that everyone else was wrong, too. I can say that I didn't have Mine That Bird picked last. I had him picked second from last. If it wasn't for GodAwful stable having entrants, I surely would have picked him last.
Not only off form, but off pedigree. In fact, the top four finishers were bred for sprints much more than distance. Yet the track seemed muddy and tiring, which doesn't favor early speed.
So what does this all mean?
Obviously, the Derby was totally against form. Not only against form, but trainers like Mott, who get respect for not entering a race needlessly, ran so bad, while Woolley, a guy who brags about fights, wins. Pedigree was totally off form, too. So, this race was certainly a fluke. Why did it run this course?
Speed horses can often come from behind in sprints. One might say the cushion of the mud and the traction helped certain horses. A local Louisville paper may have hinted at some of the reason without realizing that they were giving away some secrets.
About twenty years ago, the University of Louisville, and other colleges, began Equine programs. I attended, but they were very tight knit and closed to the public. Since then, Mr Prospector foals began going from six furlongs to longer distances. I knew they were either performing some surgery after birth, or doing genetic engineering to help the black type for Kentucky's prize stallion, and big money was talking.
The local publication stated that students of breeding liked certain horses for the classic distance. But the horses they mentioned were doubly represented by Prospector. These were people in the wealthy circle of the secretive Equine society.
There are so many ways to get around poor pedigree. Genetic engineering, surgery, ringers with identical tattoos. And we know it is happening.
One consolation is that the wrong one won the Derby for them. Even for a race as well bet as the Derby, it would've been impossible for a "rigged" horse to pay a hundred dollars. This is, by definition, impossible. The reason is that the odds are determined by the amount of money bet. For example, take a hypothetical win pool with roughly 22 million dollars in it, or however much it is that results in a 20 million dollars left for payoff after the approximate 20% take out. People who "rig" a hore are not poor. They are powerful, and plentiful. Each one of them will bet, no matter what they say, hundreds of thousands of dollars. Do not think these sort of people would have any self control. They will not stop. They think a "sure thing" at 3-1 has to be bet down. It is impossible for them to let it go at 50-1. They would half at least 5 million of their own money on such a runner. That means, just on their bets alone, the odds couldn't get over 3-1, and as I said, if more money poured it, they would still keep betting each time they saw 4-1 on the board for their "sure" thing.
So we know there was no fix. Indeed, if there was, it became unfixed. Fixed races result in low payoffs, not high ones. That is just the nature of the game. It is just a fact.
So the race was a fluke. How does this affect the Preakness?
Derby winners do amazingly well in the shorter Preakness. In fact, since the first four finishers were bred for speed, the Preakness distance is even more ideal for them.
Another factor in these races is to keep from taking too many horses who ran on super hard tracks last time out. If they aren't hurt, it's a miracle. Remember how the rock hard surface of Churchill affected Barbaro in the Preakness. And yes, that is one hundred percent positive fact that the hard Churchill surface did Barbaro on. he best way to determine the hardness of a track is to look in the racing form, not at the track condition, but at the track differential after the speed rating. The lower the differential, the closer to track records the races ran that day, and the harder the surface was. So horses who ran on differentials of 7 or 8 are probably sore or hurt, while those who ran on differentials of 30 are usually in better shape. This Derby was a soft mushy track with a slower than average time, so there is good reason to be optimistic for your favorite colt or gelding if he was in the Derby.
What will I take? I think this is a race that is best left watched, not handicapped. Handicapping went out the window, because form is up and down on everyone now. I will always take Shug, so if he enters CONSERVATIVE, I will definitely take that one, unless he looks really bad, and even then, I'll probably put two to win on him.
In short, while I'll be working the mutuels window, I won't be sure of any outcome. I will be working the windows at Pimlico that day, probably on the extended main line, which looks like a warehouse (Pimlico doesn't win beauty contests, but it is a fun place, like Ellis Park). And I won't see the odds. If one plays this race heavy, one needs to see the odds, or at least what they are at 15 minutes to post. This race won't change much after that. Then take an overlay. Tellers with me at Turfway on Derby Day said that the odds of Mine That Bird were 99-1 when the gate was loaded. I attribute that to a surplus of the last minute bettors, and some of the connections who just thought it'd be fun to bet a 99-1 shot. They were right about it being fun if they bet it.
Keywords: Preliminary Preakness observation
