Spot plays for Churchill Thursday 4-30-2009

For Thursday's big crowd at Churchill, there are some spot plays.

In the third race, there are 7 entrants. It's a good time to against the struggling
Vance stable, which will eventually come back around. WILD SUNDAY shows good form at Fairgrounds, and Fairgrounds horses are kicking tail. He was claimed by an owner-trianer team of the Larues. MR ZARROW looks like a strong second. MESS NERA looks to round out the trifecta. If Wild Sunday goes over 5-2, take him to win and place. Good superfectas are 1 with 34 with All with All, then 1, 3, with 1,3, 4, with 1,3,4 2, 7, with All, and a tri box and exacta box on 1-3-4. A saver superfecta on the 1-3-4-7 box, and a 1 with the 2,3,4,5, 7 all the way down. Remember, these are 10 cent superfectas.

Race Five has MILITARY LIKE with some speed and dropping for a pretty good stable of the Pitts. At 7-2 or over, she's worth a win-place, and show in an eight horse field. Superfectas should be a box on 2-4-5-6, and also a wheel the 4 with the 2,5, 6 with the 2, 5, 6, with All, then a 2,4 with a 2,4, with All with All. Follow with a tri box on 2-4-5 and an exacta box on 2-4-5-6.

Race 6 is a chance to take advantage of Foley's drop. The Foleys hit hard the first 2 or 3 days, then slack off. So now Greg Foley, who has won 2 of 3 starts, can be left out of the superfecta. SMOKE WARNING is much the class here, and should be played if he gets over 9-5, but CRAZY COYOTE has good form at Tufway, and looks to match him. Take an exacta box on the 1 and 5, then bet the 5 across the board if it is over 9-2. Superfectas can be 1,5 with 1,3,5,6,7 all the way down, then a box on 1-5-6-7, then 5 with 1, 6 with All with All. A tri saver can be a 1,5 with 1,5,6,7 with 1,3,5,6,7.

Race 7 may be the bet of the day. FLYING JAZZ is much the class and the best runner at most poles here, being the BEST BET today. CHAFFEE JOHN is trained by the underrated Rouck, and looks to be the main opposition. JAZZ MASTER ran well at Indiana, which is a form fitting site. Take the 3 across the board if it is over 2-1, and the 6 across the board if it is over 9-2. A tri box and an exacta box on 3-6-9 wil do for starters. Good superfectas are 3, 6 with 3, 6 with All with All, 3,6 with 1,3,6, 8, 9 all the way down, and 3 with 6 with All with All.

The eighth race is a good one to look for overlays. COVER STORY ran well on the dirt, and has good turf blood. He is a good bet at 6-1 or more, across the board. He loses Troilo, easily the best jockey on the Kentucky circuit for a long time (aside perhaps from Ouzts), but this runner should win even with Mena on board. Good superfectas are 1 with 2,3,4,6 all the way down, then a 1,2,4 with 1,2,3,4 with 1,2,3,4 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,10, 12, 14, depending on scratches.

The ninth and feature race is the 2 year olds. AEGEAN show the most ability, and has a hot trainer. If it is 5-2 or better, bet him across the board. Good supers are a 1-2-7-9 box, then a 1 with 2-79 with All with All, then a 1 with 2,7 with 2,5,6,7, 9 with All.

 The tenth race looks like one to look for an overlay. MASRAWY, KEEPINONESTEPAHEAD, LONE CYPRESS, and the also eligible CALIFORNIA COOL can all hover around 7-2, and none are worth less odds. Look for one to get an overlay around 7-1. For long shots, AUSTONS SURE CURE, SMITE DOWN ON ME, DEVILISH BERTI, MOTOWN BLUES, and PRIZE MASTER could all be taken if they go over 15-1. 8-1 would be too low on any of these. This is not a great race to bet early. Take a good overlay, and hope the stables don't make this a jockey race and spoil the chalk players.

Good luck.