Kentucky Derby Post Draw rundown

Now a brief rundown on the recent post drawings for the Kentucky Derby

1. WESTSIDE BERNIE 30-1 is by far the most likely of Kelly Breen's to do well. He hasn't accomplished much in the way of wins, but was second in the Grade 1 Wood, which is often a pivotal race. His dosage is 1.80, and his dam's sid is represented twice by Secrtariat, so he could get better with age and distance.

2. MUSKET MAN 30-1 is trained by Derek Ryan. He won a Grade 2, but his dosage is 4.00, and Derby winners are almost always under that. Plus, the dosage still doesn't take into the account the sprint bloodlines of Mr. Prospector. He also is represented by Dixieland Band, whose offspring break down often on rock hard tracks like Chruchill. But even if it rains, this one is a toss out because of his dosage and bloodlines.

3. MR HOT STUFF 15-1 is one I like, so I won't expound too much on him. He was a closing third in the important Santa Anita Derby. He is trained by Eoin Harty, who is due, and has an excellent dosage of 2.11, backed up by Tiznow, Seattle Slew, Alydar, and others.

4. ADVICE 30-1 comes from usual Derby also ran trainer Pletcher. No one knows why he fares so badly. He doesn't rush them as much as Asmussen, and he has runners with outstanding bloodlines. This one has a high dosage of 3.80, comes off a short rest, and does have a lot of spint blood, although he also sports lineage from distance sires like Buckaroo, Roberto, and Never Bend.

5. HOLD ME BACK 15-1 has a fairly high dosage of 3.44, but is trained by Mott. Mott would not run a hurt horse, and he won't run if he has no shot. So this Lanes End winner must be considered. He is sired by late blooming classic runner Giant's Causeway, and an interesting character on the dam's side is L'Enjoleur, who sired all those Coax Me horses that Smiley Adams won with. Now we can see if it was his training or the bloodlines.

6. FRIESAN FIRE 4-1 is who I cannot see being less than the favorite. He surely will be, not only off his wins, but because he beat Papa Clem, who won the Arkansas Derby. He is trained by Larry Jones, and has a dosage of 3.00. Not ideal, but good. He is also represented twice by Secretariat. He is sired by A P Indy, maybe the best bred horse ever for racing.

7. PAPA CLEM 15-1 is trained by Stute, oft seen in stakes races. His dosage is 3.36, and he is speed, and bred for speed from the sire's side, although his sire, Smart Strike, showed ability at longer races. Still, this one would be a surprise to hit the board.

8. MINE THAT BIRD 50-1 is trained by Woolley, and doesn't appear to belong in this race. His dosage is 5.40, and he ran 4th at Sunland. He has sprint bloodlines, and I expect him to be a late scratch. Probably the longest shot on the board.

9. JOIN IN THE DANCE 30-1 is another Pletcher runner, with great blodlines and a dosage of 2.00. He is a grandson of Devil's Bag, who was a disappointment, but well bred for distance, being by Halo. Certainly one to consider off bloodlines alone.

10. REGAL RANSOM 30-1 and Godawful stable needs to prove something, but this one's low dosage of 2.00 is not earned. He is bred by sprinters. Mr. Prospector apears twice in his lineage. This one is a toss out.

11. CHOCOLATE CANDY 8-1 is Hollendorfer's chance this year. Usually, I go against Prospetor lineage, but this one is well bred, with Ride The Rails a son of Cryptocleance, a son of Fappiano, who I call Mr. Prospector's freak son, since he is responsible for most of Prospector's classic distance runners. He did run 6 times at age 2, which is bad. Too likely to be worn down or broke down, but one to consider. Oh, his dosage is 2.08, so that is great.

12. GENERAL QUARTERS 30-1 won the Bluegrass, but looked like a chugger before that. He has a dosage of 2.69, good for trainer Jeff Mullins, and sports lineage from A P Indy and Caro. Prospector is in there twice, but the main drawback to this one is that he already race 11 times in his life. Way too many. Again, worn down. Go For Gin had a lot of races before his Derby win, but Gin was a super horse. This one doesn't show any signs of being super. A toss out.

13. I WANT REVENGE 5-1 will vie for favoritism for Mullins. His dosage is 3.00, and his linege looks very good. He won the Wood and Gotham. An obvious contender.

14. ATOMIC RAIN 50-1 is a long shot even for Kelly Breen. He probably won't be as long as Mine That Bird, but must show something. His dosage is 3.40, and sports sprint lineage. Derby distance is a real long shot for him. Another toss out.

15. DUNKIRK 15-1 is a well bred Pletcher horse, dosage of 3.00, who sports this for 4 great grandfathers-Seattle Slew, Caro, Alydar, and Fappiano. Wow!

16. PIONEER OF THE NILE 6-1 is trained by Baffert himself, so we know he is a contender. He is the class of the all important West so far, but does have a high dosage of 3.89. A lot of obscure names in the lineage, but going way back, one sees a lot of classics like In Reality, Bold Ruler, Princequillo, and Buckpasser. Certainly a contender.

17. SUMMER BIRD 30-1 may get bet down some because he does have good bloodlines and a dosage of 2.56 for Tim Ice, who did well in Arkansas. Looks like a stable doing a job well, so this could be a superfecta long shot filler.

18. NOWHERE TO HIDE 30-1 is trained by one of the best of the best, Zito, and has a dosage of 2.33. He has an interesting mix of speed and stamina in bloodlines, but must prove he belongs class wise. One to watch and consider for exotic wagering. 

19. DESERT PARTY 30-1 is not only from the Godolphin stable of losing, but sport a fairly high dosage of 3.80, and is bred purely for shorter races than this. He lost to his stablemate in a weak field, and is a toss out.

20. FLYING PRIVATE 30-1 was 3rd in Arkansas, and looks like a Grade 3 (and future allowance or high claimer) runner for Lukas. His dosage of 3.67 is pretty high, and personally I'm tossing him out, but Lukas is always dangerous. If he does run well, he'll be about second, so I would hesitate to use him in third or fourth spot on the superfecta.