Opening Day at Chrchill couldn't have gone any worse. It was indeed the usual handicapper's nightmare, with underlays (hot tips for insiders) winning most races. They not only ran much against form, but they paid very little. This is what happens when you have a notoriously disreputable track as Churchill. Short fields, most of them only 5 to 7 horses, make for dishonesty. It is too easy to put a fix in, and one souped up horse is a hot thing among the stables. These stables know each other, and not only are willing to let each other know they are ready, but also if they are not ready. Too many high prices on contenders who don't hit the board. Add to this the rock hard surface, criminally negligent, which makes most six furlong races over after two furlongs, since the order of finish is close to the same as at the two furlong mark on this hard surface, and you have no credibility. Opening day discouraged any professional handicapper from returning.
In contrast, Pimlico, for instance had a 50-1 shot win a stakes race last Saturday. It wasn't a morning line favorite, but it was an obvious contender. And probably should have been about 9-1. This kind of overlay lets the public know there is no hanky panky going on, since hanky panky means insiders are sure about the outcome and betting their winner down.
The rock hard surface is criminally negligent. It already destroyed Barbaro and Eight Bells, and many less famous equines. Take it from a jogger and runner, it is like a human running on the hardest concrete surface, in relation to mass. The person who does this will eventually cripple himself, usually with Sciatic nerve damage to the back and disc ruptures, or perhaps with joint trouble.
The good news is that there is possibly rain this week to help fluctuate the service, which means horses are less likely to suffer lethal damage. It is no guarantee, but the odds are much better on a better cushion. Note also that Churchill is the ONLY Kentucky track too negligent to go to the proven safer artificial surface. Why? Because too many vested interests in the breeding stock of speed horses such as many Mr. Prospector scions are also represented by Churchill stockholders. To further their own greedy interests, these creeps are willing to sacirfice horses and jockeys. They are above the law, and these punks know it.
But enough of that. We could preach on that all day, and no one would care.
You're interested int he Derby field. There are a few standouts winning in their territories, but no one is backing down. Who can we throw out of our win tickets? Also who can we throw out of the superfectas?
I'll write later this week on form, and focus now on those who can be tossed out for other reasons. I'll keep this down to what looks like a probable field of 20 so far: Pioneer of the Nile, Friesan Fire, I Want Revenge, Hold Me Back, Papa Clem, Win Willy, Dunkirk, Mr. Hot Stuff, Musket Man, Chocolate Candy, General Quarters, Giant Oak, Square Eddie, Take the Points, Join In the Dance, West Side Bernie, Regal Ransom, Desert Party, Mine That Bird, and Just A Coincidence.
First, Square Eddie is a toss out of win and superfectas for health concerns. Quality Road's connections were wise enough to bypass the long Derby distance for the quarter crack concern. The mile and a quarter WILL bring out ANY minor bruise or injury.Square Eddie also raced too often as a 2 year old (6 times), and has a fairly high dosage of 3.40, not too high, but not good, and he is bred for sprints.
Papa Clem is another toss out. His 3.36 dosage is under the usual 4.00 that most Derby winners have, but isn't ideal, and the dosage still doesn't consider Mr. Prospector the six furlong specialist he is. On the hard dry surface Chruchill wants, this isn't so bad, but any cushion will equalize the race. Clem is a toss out.
Win Willy is a toss out of the win, but not the super. His 5.00 dosagecomes from a lot of sprint lineage. He has a good stride, however, and although I wouldn't use him in exactas, I won't discourage those who want him in their trifectas and supers. His sire's side is the strong side here (Monarchos)
Pioneer of the Nile has a dosage index of 3.89, and there are just too many with much better dosages. He is a toss out for the win, but not exactas. Baffert has a classy runner. I'd want a better price than you're going to get, however. Serious underlay.
Regal Ransom is in the GodAwful, I mean Godolphin Stable. Toss out of everything.
Desert Party is an even bigger toss. Not only Godolphin, but also heavy sprint breeding, by Street Cat and out of Sage Cat, whose sire, Tobasco Cat is more suited to sprint up to a mile and an eighth. Dosage here is 3.80. Dangerously high.
General Quarters has good bloodlines and a nice 2.69 dosage. He still sports bloodlines that come up a bit short. The main concern here is that he already ran 11 races, 7 at age 2. Go For Gin was used up a lot, too, but this is no Go For Gin. Gin was a superior colt. This one is used up, and is a toss.
Giant Oak has a mediocre 3.00 dosage, with some awesome ancestors like Secretariat, Halo, and Roberto, but a few who breed short sprinters, such as Crimson Satan. It may even out. But Oak has had too many chances, and just come up too flat too often. Still, one can note Sea Hero, who did less as a 3 year old leading up to the Derby than any
Derby winner in the last 30 years, so he isn't a complete toss. Still, I'd toss him out of the win ticket.
Musket Man's 4.00 dosage is generous. Not only does his lineage look complete sprint ith Mr. Prospector twice, and with Cherokee Run, but he is also represented by the injury proned Dixieland Band, so he suffers on hard or soft surface. A complete tossout of wins and exotics.
Mine That Bird not only doesn't belong in the Derby, but has a sky high 5.40 dosage. An easy toss out.
Just A Coincidence sports some good lineage with Pleasant Colony, Seattle Slew, Buckpasser, Northern Dancer, and Bold Ruler, but a few sprinters give him a 3.36 dosage, and he may be considered for exotics, but is a toss out for the win.
That still leaves nine left just for the win, not to mention whoever else might sneak into the field.
Keywords: Derby toss outs
