Churchill opens with Gato probable Trial favorite

Keeneland is finished, and it was brutal for the handicappers. Too many inside tips winning. There were some good payoffs, but way too often there were very low paying favorites on winners who ran against form. These underlays are what signify shady dealings.

What makes racing crooked, ironically, is too much friendship between stables. When hot tips win, then you have a serious problem.  It makes handicapping anightmare, and turns off gamblers who actually read racing forms.

But this meet wasn't all that bad. Churchill has been much worse in the past. Now, Churchill opens with the Grade 3 Derby Trial, which used to be a mile, and like many Derby preps, has been shortened.

The obvious favorite here is GATO GO WIN, probably about 8-5. Jeff Mullins has had some success, and brings this one from a thrid place finish in the Grade 2 San Vicente, where he was close to the lead. Speed and a class drop are a very good sign. He'll take some beating.

SILVER CITY showed speed in the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn, but the field of that race is suspect, although it is better than given credit for. Still, in a nine horse field, he was leading only up to 4 furlongs, and faded 7 and a half lengths back at 6 furlongs, in fourth. Improvement is often expected, but this would  be a miraculous improvement in one race to hit the board.

DERBY TRIAL PAX PIX:

#5 SANTANA SIX 8-1, Zito has had some disappointments, but also fired with his ability to improve his pupils. This one ran a complete race in a mile at Gulfstream, and is worth a long shot play.

#3 GATO GO WIN 8-5 is the obvious favorite, and anything over 5-2 is a steal.

#7 HULL 4-1 is undefeated, and won on 2 tracks. He gets the class test, but no one knows his potential. Still, anything under 4-1 is an underlay on him.

#2 TINTIM POR TINTIM 20-1 is trained by Mott, and is worth a long shot play in the gimmicks. He is a notch below most stakes colts, but fits in here

# 8 KENSEI 8-1 Asmussen is good with young ones, and this one is in his fourth lifetime race, with 2 wins.

#1 SILVER CITY 7-2 looks to be the faltering speed unless Calhoun improves him dramatically

#6 RENDEZVOUS 12-1 ran in 3 maiden claiming races, and since then sports a third place finish in a Grade 3. He is a hard worker, and if someone falters, he'll capitalize. Still, he is a future claimer most likely.

#4 CHECKLIST 20-1 has 2 wins in 3 starts, but doesn't look special, with his last win coming at just ovr even money, after finishing 5th by 13 lenths in an allowance event. Makes you wonder about his competition in the ones he won.

 Superfectas: Box 2-3-7-8, and wheel 3 and 5 with 3 and 5 with All with All, then wheel 5 with 3,2,7 with 3,2,7 with 3,2,7,8, and 1.

If you're playing the late double, you'll check out the 11th race at Churchill, a high maiden claimer in which the entrants look very well matched at first.

But one of them shortens up from routes, usually not a good thing, as most trainers are too stubborn to try to win such races, insisting that you need to train longer distances into horses. This one, however, did run a sprint at age 2 in September, and showed a forward move that would demolish this crew.

ELEVENTH RACE CHURCHILL

#7 BRIGHTIA RUBY 5-1 ran a forward move as a young whipper snapper, that takes this, and is obviously improved since. Anything over 8-1 is a steal.

# 2 MISS GRANDIOSE 7-2 is a 4 year old, and the Foleys ALWAYS strike paydirt the first week of the meet at any track they train at. She shows speed, ran at Oaklawn, and drops a bit in class.

#16 SUN VALLEY STORM is an also eligible, dangerous if in. I won't include her in the superfectas below, but be forewarned to include her should she draw in

#13 SPECIFIC BLEND is another dangerous also eligible

# 5 BETTY'S CHAMP 15-1, remember the first days of a meet is when the Foleys hit hardest.

#4 SVENSKA CAT 8-1 is a 4 year old rising a bit in class, but running solid.

#10 CHARLOTTE'S CAT is a first outer from Rouck's barn, and may fit in here

#14 MAIL ORDER is a dangerous first timer if she draws in from the Ptts stable

#15 SAY SO is bred for longer, but another dangerous first timer, as first timers are most dnagerous in maiden claimers, since it means the stable doesn't have unrealistic expectations.

#9 BETTY BYE 15-1 likes to run late, and could wind up in the super or trifecta 

#1 ALTAR RAIL 4-1 is a 4 year old with 2nd place finishes in maiden races, and the class drop is a bad sign, and so is the form. Very avoidable. 

#6 BEST AHEAD 15-1 is consistent, and drops in class a bit, but fades too badly to be dangerous

#12 NOLIN LAKE 15-1 doesn't need much improvement to get in the superfecta

#8 BRUNETTE 15-1 comes off a short rest, and may have improved enough to contend

#3 BELLE STARR 15-1 fades very badly, and needs a form reversal

#11 YANKEE PRAYER 15-1 whose best race to date can't compete here

Supefectas (unless scratches put in also eligibles) Box 2-4-5-7. then wheel 7 with 2,4,5 10 with 2,4,5, 10, with 1, 2, 4,5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 12, then wheel 2, 5, 7 with 2, 5, 7 with All with All.

And lets not forget New York, where the Grade 3 Withers runs at a mile.

# 2 GONE ASTRAY 6-1 is trained by McGaughey. And has promise. Enough said.

# 7 JUST A COINCIDENCE 5-2  is tained by Zito, and ran 3rd in the Grade 1 Wood. Enough said.

#1 THIS ONES FOR PHIL 2-1 ran a dominant race with fractions of 23 2/5 seconds starting, and superb fractions thereafter in the Swale. However, this was the race of his life, although one race he was credited with a higher Beyer. The form indicates that he doesn't run such races back to back, and really must prove he can.

#4 SUPREME SUMMIT 4-1 is an underlay because he is undefeated. If he wins, the underlay bettors will scoff, though.

#6 EVERYDAY HEROES 20-1 is undefeated in 3 races, but won't get as much play since he ran at Oaklawn, but is on a par with Summit.

#3 SEAL TEAM 20-1 looks outmatched

#5 MR FANTASY 6-1 will flash speed, but figures to tire

Supefectas 2, 7 with 2, 7 with All with All, then 2 with 1,7 with All with All, then 1, 2, 7 with 2, 4, 6, 7 with 2, 4, 6, 7 with 1, 2, 4, 6, 7. Also do a tri box on the 1-2-7.

Next week, the focus will again be on the Derby. For now, FRIESAN FIRE, MR HOT STUFF, and QUALITY ROAD look very dominant for the Derby distance.