The Derby cast is probably set, and it is unlikely to see more than one Lexington entrant going to the Derby, if that many.
SQUAREE EDDIE could be a lukewarm favorite, despite running second in the Breeder Cup Juvenile last October. He suffered an injury, and even if he runs well in this race, it is not wise to back such a runner in the following race.
Shug McGaughey is a trainer the public usually bets down. His CONSERVATIVE comes off 2 wins, a maiden and a condition allowance. His turf race, in which he ran second to Lexington entrant EL CRESPO actually saw him run a better race, with a forward move of 46 and 3/5 seconds between the two furlong and mile mark. El Crespo ran that in 47 and 3/5 seconds.
Several others get class tests. One comes out of the Grade 2 Swale, a sprint that is usually underrated. Zito's BRAVE VICTORY ran fourth, and looms a big threat here.
Styx pix:
#4 BRAVE VICTORY 4-1 has speed and Zito
#7 CONSERVATIVE 8-1 has good form and Shug.
#3 PITCHED PERFECTLY 20-1 is a live long shot trained by Tagg. He comes out of a cheap race, but faced good rivals
#8 SQUARE EDDIE 7-2 has back class, and will probably run a good race
#6 MASALA 8-1 comes out of a Grade 3 fourth place finish
#11 ADVICE 20-1 may have improved enoug to crash the trifecta
#12 HULL 20-1 is undefeated in 2 starts, and gets the class test for Dale Romans
#10 PARADE CLOWN 20-1 looks like a mid packer
#9 EL CRESPO 8-1 is lightly raced and won a Grade 3 on turf
#1 JERANIMO 8-1 disappointed at Santa Anita, but contends here
#2 OMNISCIENT 20-1 gets the class test, but slow times contradict his great bloodlines
#5 HIS GREATNESS 20-1 rounds out a solid field, but must show more to be taken seriously
Trifectas: Box 4-7-3-8; 4 with 7-3-8 with All: Superfectas Box 4-7-3-8; 4-7 with 4-7-3-8 with 4-7-3-8-11-12-10-9-1 with 4-7-3-8-11-12-10-9-1-2
Keeneland's 10th Race: For Doubles players, the tenth at Keeneland offers Shug's Siren Serenade #5, who looks extremely solid, but long shot #4 BOBBY'S BELL showed a good move on a short turf sprint, and is bred for a bit loner. Good doubles would be 4, 7, 3, 8 with the 4, 5. In the tenth, a good superfecta here would be 4, 5 with 4, 5, 1, 6 with 4, 5, 1, 6, 10, 12, with all.
Usually, the first race at a track is for the jockeys and insiders, with low payoffs on morning line longshots, in other words, underlays. Saturday, however, there is a full field, which means less chance of stables knowing each other too well and getting good inside tips.
Race 1, Keeneland, styx pix
#6 ESPRIT DE SILVA 8-1 has a low profile trainer in Horacio Parisi, but he also is the owner, and this is a good sign. More hands on work. He has the bet forward move, and should be pegged
#9 JOE SIX PACK 7-2 is solid
#1 SYSTEMS STEVE 5-2 looks tough, but one gets the feeling that trainer owner Fianane is looking too much to last year's success here about this time.
#2 LAW BREAKER 4-1 looked good at lesser tracks, but contends here
#10 ZIGAWATT 20-1 is in a good stable, and comes out of condition races, but fits well
#11 LARRY B 20-1 is cheap, but will close a lot of ground here
#8 STEP TO THE MUSIC 20-1 will charge late
#5 MR ZARROW 20-1 can handle the class rise, though the stable usually doesn't have Keeneland grade stock
#3 SMOKEALONGTHETRACK 201 comes out of conditions to tougher races
#7 BOB AND RICH 20-1 may crash the superfecta
#4 PEGASUS REIGN 20-1 also comes out of condition races
#12 CHIEF COMMANDER 20-1 could show early speed
Trifectas 6, 9 with 6, 9 with 1, 2, 10, 11, 8
Superfectas 6 with 9, 1, 2 with All with All, also 6 with 9, with 1, 2, 11, 10, with all, and 6, 9 with 6, 9, 1, 2, 10, 11, 8 repeat repeat.
Keywords: Coolmore Lexington Brave or Conservative
