Who is a contender now that pretenders have shown up?

The Bluegrass, as I said, was a put up or shut up race for Theregoesjojo, and he shut up. His dosage is 2.53, but it looks like he's showing signs of his dam's sire, Mr Prospector, inability to get distance.

General Quarters keeps plugging away. He is a cheap version of Go For Gin, who also campaigned long and hard. This is not the way to the Derby as a rule. Your horse (colt) needs to be somewhat fresh, or at least not worn down. I don't see General Quarters as being the kind of superior horse that Go For Gin was. His bloodlines are okay, but until the Bluegrass, his class was suspect. If he was a bit more lightly race, I'd give him a shot, but as it is, he is a throwout for the Derby.

Win Willy actually ran well in the Arkansas Derby. He had a great stride, and was a bit too far back. He does have distance bloodlines on the sire's side, but he does have a dosage of 5.00, well above the 4.00 cutoff that a Derby winner is almost always below, probably because his dam, City Fair, has six furlong sprint blood on her sire's side, and a mile and an eighth blood (Storm Bird) on her dam's side. I suspect he'll hang somewhat at a mile and a quarter and finish about fifth in the Kentucky Derby.

Papa Clem is sprint bred, and beat a lackluster Oaklawn crew. He is another throwout and pretender for the Derby.

Another pretender is Capt Candyman Can, whose excellent dosage of 1.67 is misleading. He has Mr. Prospector blood on both sides, although it is a bit thinned with others. He is not bred fore Derby distance, but still has a chance if Churchill's track stays dry and rock hard. The Prospector horses seem to have strong bones to withstand the crippling and insane surface of Churchill. How long will the public keep forgiving Churchill for the horses they have crippled and killed, no one knows.

So in looking for contenders, the logical favorite now is FRIESAN FIRE, with Papa Clem, whom he beat, flattering him with an Arkansas triumph. He certainly has the bloodlines. His dosage is 3.00, which isn't spectacular, but good enough. His sire, AP Indy, may be the best bred horse ever, by Seattle Slew, out of Secretariat's star daughter, Weekend Surprise. Secretariat is much maligned as a sire, but his offspring do well usually at older ages and longer distances. Secretariat foals were not morning glories at age 2. Friesan Fire should get better with age and distance, if he stays healthy.

Another contender is MR HOT STUFF, dosage 2.11, by Tiznow, and may be better at age 4, but looks dangerous enough right now. His dam, Sweet Damsel, boast Alydar and Round Table bloodlines. This looks like the wise guy pick. It also looks like a legitimate pick for any one, if he trains well and stays on track.