Top Derby prospects in Bluegrass and Arkansas Derby

This is the weekend that seperates the classes, at least until the Kentucky Derby. First, the lower class Arkansas Derby, because the competition is severely lacking against WIN WILLY. OLD FASHIONED and DANGER TO SOCIETY are credible. PAPA CLEM is possibly still Grade 2 caliber while facing other 3 year olds. The others are very unproven.

Win Willy is bred for distance. He beat Old Fashioned at a mile and a sixteenth at Oaklawn, and now faces him at one and one eighth mile. The tricky call here is that the sportswriters for the daily racing form, namely Byron King and Mary Rampellini, totally discount the chances of Win Willy. This is no small indication. Sportswriting is big business, and have much more power over the protection of the monopolies they possess. They do so with inside information that most people will never be able to get. People have always gotten tips, most of them bad. Sportswriters for major operations are too powerful to get bad tips. Byron King seems to have some inside information that Captain Cherokee will run big, despite being no threat to Win Willy or Old Fashioned before. Neither he or Mary Rampellini give Win Willy any chance.

However, the data, bloodlines, and facts that must come from reading Daily Racing Form are at stake. Already, DRF is losing credibility on their data. People wonder whether the fractions are real or fictiitious, from the lack of help that DRF information gives them in future performances. In fact, too many races seem not only to run against form, but to do so at low prices. This shows that someone behind the scenes is doing something illegal. The proof of crooked racing is low payoffs, not high payoffs. This is because a payoff depends on the money bet on a horse. And if someone has a "fix" in, that person, and everyone involved, will continue to bet the horse down at any odds. It is impossible for a horse to be fixed to win and pay over $50.00. It cannot happen.

So going on form and bloodlines, the handicapper must still rely on what he can see, not what he can speculate, and hope that the inside information goes afoul.

Given this, here is how the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby order of finish projects to be (closely)

FIRST: #9 WIN WILLY 9-5 only be helped by the added distance. The son of Monarchos is out of a Carson City dam, and if he is beaten, this race is an upset.

Second: #10 DANGER TO SOCIETY 9-2, a grandson of Deputy Minsiter, figures to keep improving with age. For now, he won his initial maiden and condition allowance at Gulfstream, where some good 3 year olds run, and ran seventh in the Grade 3 Holy Bull there. The overall field here, aside from Willy and Old Fashioned, doesn't rate with that.

Third: #8 OLD FASHIONED 2-1is bloodlines don't scream improvement with age or distance. He is classy, however, and deserves respect.

Fourth: #6 FLYING PRIVATE 12-1 was 2nd to Hold Me Back at Turfway, but Hold Me Back appears  a league ahead of all who ran against him that day. Lukas has been training very well, though

Fifth: #4 POLTERGEIST 20-1, simply for finishing 3rd in the Rebel. Not much else is spectacular about him, but a 3rd in a Grade 2 is respectable.

Sixth: #2 PAPA CLEM 15-1, 2nd in a weak Louisiana Derby field, has speed that could hang on for a while

Seventh: #7 SUMMER BIRD 30-1 is the most promising of the long long shots, being on the upswing off a maiden win

Eighth: #1 CAPTAIN CHEROKEE 30-1 was fourth in the Rebel, after posting an allowance win at Fairgrounds, not exactly a haven for great 3 year olds.

Ninth: #5 ZIEGFELD was 2nd in the Rushaway at Turfway, and has a good trainer (Romans) and good bloodlines. For now, he really looks less than Grade 2 material, but he could surprise for the superfecta quite easily

Tenth: #3 FLAT OUT has good bloodlines, and isn't bad. He just seems a notch lower in class.

The Bluegrass features the greatest scenario of 3 year olds yet this year. And it is put up or shut up time for THEREGOESJOJO. It is true that he was impeded in the top of the lane, and it cost him all his momentum last time out. That said, he should run fresher than most, and can't continue to use excuses. He needs to run first or second to be a true Derby contender. Anything less, and he becomes a Grade 2 or 3 runner. The projected order of finish for the Bluegrass:

First: #3 THEREGOESJOJO 5-2 is not a pretender. This grandson of Seattle Slew is Kenneth McPeek's best chance ever for the roses in May.

Second: #10 HOLD ME BACK 5-2 by Giant's Causeway, noted for producing older stakes runners. Trainer Mott has been one of the classic trainers for a long time, from Shot and Missed to Cigar. He doesn't go into the Derby often. Neither did Whiting, who won with Lil E Tee. Hold Me Back is in top form, and won't disappoint in the Bluegrass. The 3-10 box is very solid here

Third: #11 MASSONE 10-1. This is where it gets tricky, with a lot of quality runners. This one is a late runner who will soon be worn down, having raced since June as a 2 year old, with 9 races to date, but should have one more good race left. Avoid after this, however.

Fourth: #9 CHARITABLE MAN 4-1 is fresh and undefeated in 2 races, one of them a Grade 2. He still must prove 3 year old form, but bloodlines suggest he can do this. Would be no surprise.

Fifth: #6 TERRAIN 8-1, scion of Pulpit and 49er. 49er is of sprint bloodlines, and his scions seem to like dirt better than polytrack. He looks solid here.

Sixth: #2 JOIN IN THE DANCE 30-1 shows early speed, but is bred for distance. Don't be surprised if he comes on early at slower than usual fractions and stays up to be in the top three

Seventh: #1 PATENA 30-1 isn't spectacular, but hasn't been pushed as hard as many of the others, this being his seventh lifetrime race.

Eighth: #5 MAFAAZ 15-1 has sprint bloodlines, but is lightly raced enough to run well and make a good impression

Ninth: #8 GENERAL QUARTERS 15-1 keeps on plugging after 10 races, beginning in May at Churchill. He is a notch below most, and has been pushed very hard

Tenth: #7 LOCH DUBH 30-1 has never shown the class to contend here. He is nicely bred, but a notch below.

Eleventh: #4 CLIFFY'S FUTURE 30-1 won the Rushaway at Turfway, but is another who is driven too hard, and he has sprint blood. Would be a complete surprise.