Future book Derby watch

This weekend's column will focus on the future pool for the Derby, which is more exciting this year with the addition of exacta wagering. With 552 possible combinations (barring a scratch), the average payoff figures to be about $800 on a $2 bet.

What to look for in the first 2 pools is obviously bloodlines, and perhaps trainers. Even now, bloodlines are more important than form. The Derby is still too far away.

There are no sons of Halo. No standouts among the 23 named entrants. The best bloodlines are boasted by the 23 Win Willy, by Monarchos, although the dam's side isn't Derby spectacular.

The 22 There Goes Jojo has ample bloodlines on both sides. So does the 6 Friesan Fire. As usual, Pletcher has royally distance bred entrants.

One that intrigues for the exacta is the 13 Mr Hot Stuff, a closer in the Grade 3 Sham in California. By Tiznow, out of Sweet Damsel, he shouts out late bloomer, and may not be at his best until the Fall. Still, although I don't like his win chances, he is an obvious superfecta filler for the Derby, and maybe even an exacta filler.

The Derby will definitely be the class test. We know that the Lane's End winner, Mott's Hold Me Back, outclassed his rivals. We also know Mott and McGaughey (Imperial Council) are not partakers of needless Derby entries. They won't go to the Derby unless they think they have a great chance. Much like Lynn Whiting of Lil E Tee notoriety.

This means the Derby itself would be a good time to wager on Mott or Shug McGaughey, but the future pool isn't attractive. They are too likely to bypass the Derby. Still, for the exactas, Mott's Hold Me Back must be used. Imperial Council doesn't look classy enough yet.

The Florida Derby was tainted by the stewards, who flagrantly allowed the favorites to impede the progress of There Goes Jojo. Stewards of most tracks tend to allow leeway towards favorites. And don't be fooled by the term "favorites". Being favored has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with past performance. It is simply determined by the amount of money wagered to win. That is all. There Goes Jojo was flagrantly impeded, and as a result, may not have been used up as much as normal. This makes him even more attractive for the Kentucky Derby.

I would recommend the three horse box on 8, 22, and 23 for the exacta. Also, a saver, with 24 (the field) over 22 and 23. I would also take 22 and 23 over 1 (Charitable Man, who may just be fresh enough to run big) 4 (Dunkirk, who has some nice bloodlines and is lightly raced), 6 (Friesan Fire, classy and well bred), 9 (I Want Revenge, with the AP Indy bloodlines is a must use), 13 (Mr Hot Stuff, the late bloomer), and 19 Take The Points (bred for distance).

I would avoid Old Fashioned, who isn't the best bred, and looks worse the longer he goes. I'd avoid the Godolphin stables entrants, Desert Party and Regal Ransom, neither bred for classic distance. I'd also avoid Giant Oak, who hasn't hit the board at the age of 3. Caution on that, however, as no one ever looked worse as a 3 year old going into the Derby than Sea Hero. Still, Giant Oak has to be considered a long shot, and doesn't boast great Derby distance breeding. I'd also avoid the sprint bred British runners Muske Man and Mafaaz.

Derby Picks so far:

First pick: WIN WILLY 8-1

Second: THERE GOES JOJO 15-1

Third: HOLD ME BACK 10-1

Fourth: MR HOT STUFF 20-1

Fifth: FRIESAN FIRE 8-1