Jojo goes for the Coal Man

The Florida Derby is considered one of the most important preps for the Kentucky Derby. This year, there is no clear cut favorite. It's no stretch to say the field "appears" lackluster, with only one entry sporting over 2 wins, and he has only 3 wins. There's even a maiden in the field, who has never been first, second, or third.

But this is usually what marks a pretty good field. These are up and comers, not broken down horses with a lot of races. Finishing first. second, maybe even third or fourth, will mark you as a contender.

THEREGOESJOJO is one I touted in the Fountain of Youth, and he finished second at odds of 9-2, which isn't a long shot by any definition, but he wasn't favored either. He has the bloodlines to go longer. However, most entries in this race are well bred for distance.

The Swale Stakes at 7 furlongs has only six runners, so it is NOT a good betting race. If you insist on betting it, here is the projected order of finish, or at least how well they size up.

SWALE

5 BRAVE VICTORY 9-2 doesn't have great times, but Zito knows his game, and this one looks good for middle distances like this

2. BZ WARRIOR 6-1 may wind up a huge overlay. He has some good moves, and his worst race is competitve

6 BIG DRAMA 9-5 has a great win streak, and looks to be maturing along with his fellow 3 year olds 

1. THIS ONES FOR PHIL 2-1 has the best times, but already has 10 lifetime races, and figures to wear down

4. CUSTOM FOR CARLOS 6-1 looks to be the odd man out, but has good form, and could surprise

3. SABI SABI 20-1 appears outmatched, but this isn't a great field, so if he improves, huge odds are attractive

FLORIDA DERBY GRADE 1: I'm actually picking the top 2, bet the one with the biggest overlay between THEREGOESJOJO and TOBY THE COAL MAN. If Jojo goes off at 5-2 and Toby at 25-1, bet Toby. If Toby goes off at 8-1 and Jojo goes off at 4-1, bet Jojo.

6. THEREGOESJOJO 5-2 was clearly the best in the Fountain of Youth, whose winner had the superior jockey. He's well bred for the stretch out, and figures to take this

1. TOBY THE COAL MAN 12-1 could be a huge overlay, even with Zito training. He has the best forward move on dirt. Theonly concern are the two losses at this distance, while his win came at even money odds, which suggests a lack of competition to the bettors of the race

2. QUALITY ROAD 2-1 won the Fountain, and isn't badly bred for distance

9. STATELY CHARACTER 20-1 is a closer who is a great pick to run fourth. Could surprise

4. DUNKIRK 7-2 is undefeated in 2 starts, and is trained by Pletcher, who trains hard, so he should still be in good form.

3. CASEY'S ON CALL 12-1 has the most wins, and one of his two losses came on turf. A logical pick for a long shot bettor, but tough to endorse.

7, DANGER TO SOCIETY 20-1 sports good bloodlines, but looks just a bit lower than most here.

5. SINCERO 20-1 would need drastic improvement to contend

8. EUROPE 50-1 is a maiden who ran 4th against non winners.