Will Mott Hold Me Back?

This weekend, the Kentucky Derby preps are in Florence, Ky, next to Cincinnati, with the minor Rushaway and the major Grade 2 Lanes End, which veterans still call the Jim Beam Stakes, since the old sponsor is easier to remember than the new name. Both races look like insider picks. A lot of runners who come off short layoffs, and could run big, or could be brought around slowly. Unless you're an insider, and know you can trust your sources, you need to avoid anything smaller than 9-2 in either race. The Rushaway favorite should be SUMMER EMPIRE, who showed a bit of class in restricted races in Illinois as a 2 year old. His forward moves from last year puts him near the top, and any improvement gives him the win. On the down side, he already has 7 lifetime starts, and began in April of his two year old year. Too soon to race and stay healthy as a 3 year old. On the bright side, he has been working at Keeneland, where trainers stock only the best horses. FITZALSEW could easily go wire to wire. CLIFFYS'S FUTURE has some good moves. ZIEGFELD looks competitive off a maiden win, and should be in the superfecta fairly easy. NINTH CLIENT is the class of the race, but has 8 lifeftime starts already. TOCCET ROCKET also raced a lot, but pretty much rounds out the top contenders. NO INFLATION and SUNDAYS BABY GRAND-either one would have to run the race of his life to get in the money.

The Lanes End (Jim Beam) has four leading contenders in HOLD ME BACK, BITTEL ROAD, A.P. CARDINAL, and WEST SIDE BERNIE. PROCEED BEE could be good enough, and gets the class test. ORTHODOX won on turf, and is tested on dirt.

You're well aware that my pick of WIN WILLY for the Rebel at Oaklawn did win, at 36-1 odds!!!!!!!

If you're going to the track, here's a good base to start from, listing the order of preference for the colts in each race. For the casual bettor, I'm listing the order with the program number, followed by the name of the runner, the probable odds, and a comment

RUSHAWAY:

6. SUMMER'S EMPIRE 9-5 comes off poor Grade 3 effort, but is where he belongs. Should be tough to beat

3. FITZASLEW 3-1 should have improved stamina from a fade at River on grass last September.

2. ZIEGFELD 15-1 comes off maiden route win, and looks to be right there

4. CLIFFY'S FUTURE 6-1 fits in well here

1. NINTH CLIENT 4-1 is the Lukas entry, who will probably either win big or be out of the money. Not one to key in third or fourth in a superfecta, but he is the class, and needs to be on the ticket

8. TOCCET ROCKET 15-1 closed well in the prep for this, and probably was second best in the Battaglia, since Parade Clown had the services of Troilo, who gets the most out of a horse.

5. NO INFLATION 15-1 doesn't have great times, and appears outclassed, but is in decent form now.

7. SUNDAY'S BABY GRAND 15-1 may be better than the slow times on slow tracks, but still must surprise.

LANE'S END (Jim Beam)

1. HOLD ME BACK 5-1 is bred to improve, and his 2 year old form is competitive. Trainer William Mott has slumped ever since Cigar's great campaign. Here's his chance to come back, with one that should win.

3. A.P. CARDINAL 4-1 has the best bloodlines, and one has to decide if the last race, a fade in a Grade 3 at Tampa, was a fluke. If so, he could get the lead early, and never look back. Obvious pick if Mott holds back. 

4. WEST SIDE BERNIE 5-2 has class, coming off 4 graded stakes races.

12. PROCEED BEE 15-1 comes off win the prep for this, which is often underrated.

2. BITTEL ROAD 3-1 is an obvious contender, and California horses have done very well so far. Pletcher has them ready in March. He looks to be overbet, though. If he stays over 2-1, you need to use him in your exotic bets.

8. ORTHODOX 20-1 is the obvious long shot pick. His turf form could easily transfer to dirt. He is bred for turf on the mother's side. His sire, Pulpit, by A.P. Indy, makes him even more attractive.

10. FLYING PRIVATE 30-1 comes out of Lukas stable, and he has a knack for solving problems like good trainers do, which could mean form reversal.

7. BRUCE N AUTUMN 30-1 has been midpack, and has nice bloodlines for just under classic distance. Romans is due, and this also looks like a nice long shot stab.

9 LOCH DUBH 30-1 has cheap speed, and may hold on to get in the money

5. JACK SPRATT 30-1 is just a bit outclassed, but isn't totally out of it. Could hit the board.

6. PARADE CLOWN 30-1 would be a long shot even with Troilo aboard. Without him, there doesn't seem to be any chance.

11. DYNAMITE BOB 30-1 would have to have a miraculous form reversal to contend. He could go off at 80-1 and still be tough to include.