The Fountain of Youth is only one mile now. Which makes it more of a two grade sprint than a Derby prep race. Still, 4 of the 23 listed contenders from Future Book One are entered.
On a general note, 7 of the 23 in the first future book already had 3 races under their belt by September 15, 2008. This is far too many. No professional gambler would even consider betting one of these to win at under 80-1. With all of the injuries that could go wrong any way, this practically guarantees that these 7 colts will not be healthy enough on Derby Day. They are absolute throw outs for the Derby.
But not for the Derby preps.
Being one mile makes it tougher to handicap. More luck is involved, and also the jockey is more important. A bad jockey can rate a colt completely out of a mile race. This happens less often with Grade 2 jockeys, though.
Beethoven, being a grandson of Pulpit and Carson City, and trained by John Ward, who doesn't usually push horses too fast, could be a slight favorite over Capt. Candyman Can and Tagarub.
On a pretty fast Aqueduct track, Tagarub went 22 4/5 seconds, then the next four furlongs in a nice 46 2/5 seconds.
Had this been longer, say a mile and an eighth the advantage would be seen going to Beethoven and Theregoesjojo, who is bred for longer distances. There would be many colts stretching out to a longer distance, and usually a winner comes from such a colt, with the experienced ones still getting in the money.
This is still a make or break race.
The Sham, with The Pampleouse favored, could be an upset, but that would be Sunday's story. I'm skipping the Sham and going to Turfway's less glamorous Battaglia.
The Battaglia produces solid contenders for the Lanes End, a major Derby prep.
This time, Proceed Bee looks like an obvious favorite. A grandson of Storm Cat and Private Terms, he won the Grand Canyon on Turf at Churchill in November, then ran fifth of 7 at Oaklawn on the dirt at a mile in the Smarty Jones.
James Baker has Stratos, who stretches out, as does Shanes Gold. Toccet Rocket and Parade Clown look like superperfecta kickers.
styxpix: Fountain of Youth: THEREGOESJOJO 15-1, Capt. Candyman Can 7-2, Beethoven 4-1, Taqarub 4-1
Battablia: PROCEED BEE 9-5, Shanes Gold 3-1, Toccet Rocket 15-1, Stratos 4-1
Be sure to post your pix on this blog.
Keywords: Picks for Fountain and Battaglia
