Johnny Matheis's Horse Racing fan blog

This weekend features 3 big derby preps, but the big one I'll just avoid and let you have fun with at Santa Anita, also because Santa Anita is usually a form maker more than a form reading track. It's the sort of track where inside information really helps.

Both of these races are of course Saturday, March 13. For newcomers, the number before the horse name is the program number

11TH TAMPA BAY DOWNS Tampa Derby Grade 3 1 1/16 mile

2 TUVIA'S FORCE 4-1 may take longer to develop sinceit is trained by a giant, Zito, the sort who doesn't rush things along, but lets the horse do the talking. Still, he has a good forward move, and should be about even with the two chalks.

6 SUPER SAVER Even money- hasn't raced since winning a Grade 2 November at Chruchill. Being fresh is good, especially since he came from Churchill's hard track, which may explain the lay off

Continue reading "Ky Derby preps Tampa Bay and Oaklawn"

This means that the 2009 Breeder Cup Races overall were not successful.

First, the absence of the three greatest trainers meant that they didn't feel they had entries worthy. From my earlier posts, I did warn the public that this meant many of these more common trainers were just there to booze it up and bet other trainers' horses. This is very bad for the industry. It is corrupt.

It was obvious the fields were substandard for the Breeder Cup races. I pegged Go Ponti for the classic because of the average field. He ran second, which poroved my point.

Now for a realistic evaluation of why this year's Breeder's Cup was a failure. Not a bad failure, but undeniably not a success.

From past Breeder Cups, the ones which were legitimate, with trainers running to win, we see usually decent payoffs. Low payoffs are the first sign of dishonest backsides. It means, as I said, that people backside are boozing it up and betting other people's horses. Some races are "training" races, once common, but almost nonexistent now are the need to get about three races off a layoff before a horse is ready. Nowadays, most trainers do so many workouts, they are ready right away, and with the hard surfaces of tracks that don't care a bit about a horse's health (like Churchill Downs), one race may be enough to break a horse down again.

Continue reading "2009 Breeder's Cup hurt the industry"

These 2 days of racing in California, what sticks out the most is the absence of the giants in the industry. The three most respected trainers, McGaughey, Zito, and Nafzger not only don't have any entrants in ANY of the Breeder Cup races, but in none of the other races on the cards.

We know these three don't enter unless they feel they have a strong chance. This year, as we see from the low payoffs, there are too many trainers just "showing up to lose". Theses races are supposed to be the BEST in each race, and logically should be all 7-1 in a 10 horse field. Low payoffs are a sign of dishonest and poor training.

And low payoffs don't mean Good Form. The low payoffs yesterday were all incredible UNDERLAYS, horses who ran the best races of their lives, and who would've been 15-1 or higher to anyone who reads the Daily Racing Form. So, is the Daily Racing Form giving false information? I doubt that. Instead, this means that other trainers in the races are there to booze it up and bet down these underlays.

Continue reading "Breeder's Cup missing the giants"

Each horseplayer has to have an edge, which is a secret only he uses. If other people use it, then he gets underlays and not only does he become a loser, but so do the people who steal his picks. In other words, if Joe picks the 3 horse and bets 5 to win, and Jenny decides to do the same, and she tells Fran and Bill, who each tell two friends, and before long Joe's 5 dollars is represented by 300 dollars, since at least one of those friends is an idiot who bets big money, and there are those at the track who simply bet what they see money bet on, and they can easily turn a 28-1 into a 12-1. Joe's available profit turns from 56 dollars (58.00 payoff) to 24.00 (26.00 payoff). He has to hit this twice as often. He plays it because if he wins one time in 30 he comes out ahead. Now one time in 30 puts him behind, because his own friends cut their own throats just to cut his. That's what it amounts to.

Continue reading "2 year olds at Churchill 11-1-2009"

We'll get back to horse racing soon. This is a lull in the season. Now, even the horse players are focused on the NFL. Who will be better? Who will be worse.

 In this analysis, I simply take what the teams had, what they lost and gained, and weigh all the potentials. For example, 3 first and second round draft pick linebackers in their third year would translate into at least 2 successes.

NFC East:

1. NEW YORK GIANTS figure to win about 12 games and have the best shot to win the division. They are especially strong in the running game, but also are very good in pass offense, pass defense, and rush offense.

2. WASHINGTON REDSKINS have an aged offensive line, and that does fit well with a defense that will be near the best in the NFL. They should take about 11 wins and be in the playoffs.

Continue reading "NFL Forecast"

Saturday, July 11, 2009, features a big race in California, and those of us who saw Shug's Parading race at Keeneland in the flesh know he is a phenom, and Grade 1 Breeder Cup classic material. His price should be tiny Saturday.

Arlington offers some good stakes action. The Grade 3 Handicap features one of the most underrated horses of the last few years, and one with the hardest luck. STREAM CAT is the real deal, and capable of demolishing nearly any field. He races in a classic distance 1 1/4 mile turf. Of course, at about 3-1, we want a good superfecta to go with him.

Projected order of finish: 

July 11 2009 Arlington Park Race 12: Grade Turf 1 1/4 mile Handicap:

11: STREAM CAT 3-1 is the real deal and real due

9: JUST AS WELL 6-1 has the best forward move of the rest, and should run second easy

Continue reading "Spot play in Arlington Handicap"

Of course the people who read this link are for increased revenue in the horse racing industry. Those who read these blogs partake of the fun, and some have a bigger interest.

 So when Bob Baffert says we need to save horse racing in Kentucky because over 100,000 jobs are at stake, we ask if we are being selfish to agree.

In a word, "No". 100,000 is a lot of jobs, and when people Number One, who want to outlaw gambling say that these people Number Two can be retrained, the People Number One are not willing to retrain them. People Number One will not give them a chance. People Number One will not offer help or a solution.

Horse Racing is Entertainment. And it certainly can't be compared to killer industries like Tobacco, Firearms, and Alcohol, or even Motor Vehicles.

Continue reading "What Baffert said"

Racing starts in New York at 11:35 Eastern time, so go early if you want to make the thrid race.

It's a maiden race in which you have a triple whammy entrant. Trained by Zito, he raced at Keeneland, and he is a grandson of Star de Naskra. Allof these combine to figure on improved performance. WOODFORD MANHATTAN is likely to be about 15-1, coming off a poor showing on turf at Belmont. He ran second at Keeneland before that, and to be brutally honest, the best run at Keeneland.

His two main rivals are McGaughey's BIMINI and a 4 year old EMPIRIOR. Figure on you superfecta or tris to use these runners in about this order 6-8-4-12, with outside chances for the 2, 10, 7, 11, and 9.

3rd Belmont;

6 WOODFORD MANHATTAN 15-1

8 BIMINI 8-1

4 EMPIRIOR 8-1

12 FRENCHONIONSOUP 10-1

Continue reading "Spot plays for Belmont and Churchill on Belmont Day 6-6-2009"

Clearly, the Derby winning Mine That Bird deserves to be favored. Usually, coming out of the Derby and Preakness is the kiss of Death simply because of such hard surfaces in 2 weeks time, but this year the surfaces had a bit of cushion. This doesn't mean Bird will automatically be unhurt, but his chances are much better. Still, while he outran his bloodlines in the Derby, and ran true to them in the Preakness, we can figure the Derby is the one race against form, and that he won't run as well in the Belmont.

The Preakness had a fairly soft field, as usual. Mine That Bird is still the class. Dunkirk can be excused his one clunker in the Derby. The big question is how soft were the California invaders? Since Pioneer of the Nile ran second in the Derby, one can give credibility to the West Coast this year, at least in the odds.

Continue reading "Could the Belmont be Hot Stuff?"

Belmont's 10th race is the Grade One Met Mile, and Breeder's Cup Classic 7th place finisher, Smooth Air, will probably be a slight favorite. His moves are good for this race. The second choice could either be Ready's Echo, who ran third in last year's Belmont, Mr. Fantasy, a 3 year old who won the Withers, or My Pal Charlie, 4th in the Breeder's Cup dirt mile.

MY PAL CHARLIE may be the spot play. He lost to Accredit last time out, but ran a great race, and had some trouble. If he goes over 4-1, he'll be a great bet. To fill the superfecta, I'd use Ready's Echo, Smooth Air, Bribon, and the McGughey long shot, Imperial Council.

Arlington's 6th race sees BUZZ MY BELL, who runs much better than what is on paper.  7-2 would be an absolute steal for this one to break her maiden. She's bred to get better, and she already should win this easy. To round out the superfecta, one should look first to Sweetest Lil Star, who looks best on paper, Rena M, a solid pick, Sticky Issue, and Raspberry Jam for the second and third slots, and All for fourth.

Continue reading "Memorial Spot plays"