Johnny Matheis's Horse Racing Fan Profile

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Who am I?

Began in the horse industry as an owner, for an underrated trainer named John McCord. In a small stable, this means being a hotwalker and groom, also. I now work in pari mutuels, and worked four different states. And I'm not finished.

Interests

bridge, film work, Horse racing, NFL

Main Skills

handicapping. I'm here so that we can all keep reminding each other that the only way to ever win money is to be considered an i, Like everyone who visits

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Johnny Matheis
Friday 27th February 2009, 8:24pm
Lets not kid ourselves. Picking superperfectas of the prep, and picking Derby winners is seperate. I'll try to bring up a general point and a specific point in each comment. First, the general point. The Derby prep races for Saturday, Feb 28, which will be soon. The Sham offers a heavy favorite inThe Pamplemousse. If he is beat, then there will be a good story. The Battaglia at Turfway has a obvious favorite in Proceed Bee Proceed Bee (who I'm listing at 9-5) is well bred for more classic distances. He won the Grand Canyon at Churchill last November, and came back in January to run 5th of 7 at Oaklawn. He is facing a group that must prove themselves. Usually, in a 1 1/16 mile race, someone does. Stratos, trained by James Baker, is stretching out, as is Shanes Gold, and both are well bred enough for the distance. Still, Proceed Bee is a solid choice, and should hit the boards. The high profile Derby prep is the Fountain of Youth of course, which seems a bit short at only 1 mile. Many of the entrants are in Future Book 1, which helps make this an even higher profile race. Beethoven has to be considered for the favorite role, with a Grade 2 win at Churchill last November. Actually, this is the sort of race that determines who will be a high profile contender, at least until the Derby. The specific point (or general if you think of it that way) is who people pick for their Derby horse from the first future book. It was certainly a good time to go for the field. The reason being that too many of the 23 named contenders began their careers too early. If a thoroughbred begins running in May of a 2 year olds season, he needs outstanding luck to keep from breaking down by Derby Day. No professional gambler would ever take low odds on a 2 year old wonder in May to win the Kentucky Derby. 7 of the 23 had 3 races under their belts already by Sep. 15, 2008. No pro would ever consider any of these at under 80-1 odds, even for a stab. They can be tossed out altogether. It would take a 1 in a 100 chance for a colt like this to still have a chance on Derby Day. There are just too many ways for a horse to get hurt, added onto them being pushed too hard too early. By the beginning of this year, of the 16 left, 3 had 5 or more races already. Too many to take anything under 35-1. That still leaves 13 credible picks, but few with the desirable bloodlines for Derby distance. Midshipman is in the hands of Godolphin Stable, who really need to prove themselves in the Derby. No one would want to take low odds on them. Hello Broadway hasn't been pushed too hard by Barclay Tagg. He's a grandson of Unbridle and Storm Cat, wo he bred reasonably well. The longer the race, the less desirable the performances of Capt. Candyman Can, Giant Oak, and West Side Bernie, though the latter two seem to like added ground. Fairgrounds heroics don't usually translate well at Derby time, which is bad news for Friesan Fire. The first pool would've been the time to take him, because once he faces Grade 1 rivals, he'll either move up the standings and to lower odds, or he'll be out of the Derby picture. The same goes for Taqarub. For Future Pools, one wants to take a contender whose odds will either go down or be out of the picture in later races. A bet on Breeder Cup winner Midshipman, for example, would've made no sense. His odds will steadily go up, and he probably won't be out of the picture for a while, so a fan of Midshipman would be foolish to bet him in Pool 1. This doesn't help, ipso facto, but should give bettors an idea when Pool 2 comes along. That is the specific point. Picks for Saturday: skipping the Sham and taking the Battaglic and the Foutain. Battaglia: PROCEED BEE, Shanes Gold, Stratus. Foutain: THEREGOESJOJO, Beethoven, Capt. Candyman Can

Johnny Matheis's Weblog Posts


How to Ice a Belmont box posted on 06/04/2010

I've been crowing about Zito's ICE BOX since well before the derby, and he landed second in that race at 11-1, which actually made him one of the lower prices in a strange derby with an 8-1 favorite.

Now, he's likely to be the Belmont favorite, and justly so, but with near favorites winning both the earlier races of the triple crown, one would expect a long shot to finally emerge. The second choice has won both races. Not exactly chalk, but certainly the second lowest price possible.

Still, Zito is a pro. He isn't likely to enter either of his colts at less than 100%, and certainly won't run a hurt colt.

Figuring on 10 cent superfectas, one can still find value.

06/05/2010 11th Race BELMONT, 1 1/2 MILE GRADE 1 BELMONT:

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH:

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

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No pleasure in reporting horsemen cheating posted on 05/07/2010

Kentucky is one of the most crooked in the country in most things, Horse racing included. You can't tell by "reports", because a truly corrupt system will not report abuses.

But we knew they would do it for the huge pick six carry over Thursday. And I watched, and found an obvious cheat.

Contrary to belief, it isn't the jockey who is to be watched. They try to stay aboard an animal and hold on for their health. It is the trainer who can "juice up" a horse. "Juicing up" may or may not involve illegal substances, but it involves having a horse ready or not. This is okay, as long as it is not blabbed to all the sports writers, trainers, and hoodlums who bet it down.

In the eighth race, which was the 4th leg of the pick six, CLASSIC EMILY was one that looked to route this group on paper. She figured to go off at 2-1. She already manhandled most of them, and the only real competition looked to be from PROUDLY IRISH, who should have been second choice around 4-1.

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Form filled Derby day posted on 05/02/2010

I feel guilty again. I didn't have time to handicap, work, and post Friday night, but the races at Churchill on Derby Day were uncommonly form fitting.

In fact, I have no complaints. I even bet a small pick 6, using only eight combinations, using only singles and at most two horses in a race, and still got 3 winners and three seconds. I figured I would easily have had the five win consolation if I just went ahead and bet 20 combinations for 40 bucks.

Naturally, I skipped the first race, which had such a short field that only people following certain horses or trainers could possibly bet it without being called amateurs. I really loved SPICER, who ran third in the second race, thinking he'd be a good one, but he is falling short. I'm sure it is no fault of Nafzger, though, as he's doing everything he can. I still expect this one to be a stakes runner some day. Still, there were only two obvious competitors, and they ran first and second, so the tri box was a "gimme" and paid very well.

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Oaks and Derby posted on 04/30/2010

When you work at Keeneland, it doesn't seem like it takes long til Derby arrives.

First, the Oaks day. I'm not keen on Oaks-Derby Doubles. Doubles and pick Threes are for those who rely on dumb luck. Since one juiced up hot tip can beat you out of any win, it involves more luck for pick threes and doubles, and more handicapping for trifectas and superfectas.

FRIDAY 04/30/2010

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

PROGRAM NUMBER-NAME OF RUNNER-PROBABLE ODDS-COMMENTS

CHURCHILL RACE 2: MDN 1 MILE

4 KAREN ANN 3-1 Bred to improve each race, already has the times to conquer this filed

1 RIGAMARO 15-1 looks second best on paper

2 ISLAND BOUND 4-1 a contender here

6 OFFICERS GLORY 12-1 ran close to top pick at Keeneland

10 CROWN THE CAT 12-1 loks to run in the stretch at most levels, probably here, too

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Spot plays Thursday 04/29/2010 posted on 04/28/2010

Just a brief note today on the Derby field. Today I'll focus on bloodlines.

We see a lot of good cross breeding, with little duplication as far as 5 generations back, and peole are thinking of new classifications for chef-de-races.

The filly, DEVIL MAY CARE is generously granted a dosage of 2.53, but is the most speed oriented runner in the race, with Mr Prospector listed twice. As a female in the animal kingdom, she does develop at a younger age than males, so figure them to still be growing. The Derby is usually a filly's best chance. Still, she is up against it, and is a toss out on bloodlines and on being a filly.

DEAN'S KITTEN is granted a 1.15 dosage, and I like some of his pedigree, usually following NASKRA AND LENJOLEUR, but it is hard to see this pedigree being classic distance overall, and he has had a tough campaign. I'd be reluctant to use him in exotic wagers, too, based on this.

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